The Angels, still of Anaheim though they’d have you forget, lost yesterday. It was their third straight loss, dropping them even more firmly into fourth place in what’s likely a two-team division race, eleven games back of the Astros, seven and a half back of the second-wildcard-possessing A’s. Mike Trout is still a ways from returning. Anthony Rendon is still a ways from returning. Another promising year has faded away, and the trade deadline’s not for more than a week.
So when will the Angels make something happen? When will they make their first postseason since 2014, their second since 2009? When will Mike Trout finally have his playoff moments?
Presumably, the answer is rather soon. The Angels, not afraid to spend, have Albert Pujols’s salary finally coming off the books this offseason, with Justin Upton’s leaving next offseason. They have a lot invested in Trout and Rendon, but Shohei Ohtani’s cruelly affordable, and David Fletcher signed a team-friendly deal that assured him of a lifetime’s worth of wealth in exchange for forfeiting his shot at adding a zero to that lifetime’s-worth. Their farm system is not good, but it’s not terrible, and its best asset debuted this week in the outfield, where he, Brandon Marsh, could conceivably play between Trout and Ohtani for a few innings or games in an idyllic Orange County future. The resources are there to fill in gaps via free agency or (less likely, given the farm system) trade, but at the same time…Albert Pujols was a free agent. Justin Upton was extended after being acquired in a trade.
Part of the Angels’ problem is a lack of diversification within its portfolio. If you can have Mike Trout, you take Mike Trout, and if you can have Anthony Rendon, you take Anthony Rendon, but when you have seventy million dollars each year wrapped up in those two guys, you need them to be healthy, and this year, neither has been healthy. If it works, it should work in a big way, but when it doesn’t work, it’s going to hurt. This year, it’s hurt.
The seventy million number raises some eyebrows, and in context, it’s a third of the current luxury tax threshold, implying you should get a third of your production out of those two guys (this is a flawed way of thinking, but we’ll get to that). In 2019, Trout amassed 8.5 fWAR despite playing just 134 games. In 2019, Rendon racked up 7.0 fWAR despite playing just 146 games. Even taking aging into account, as each has begun or will soon begin to age, you should be able to expect something like 8.5 again from Trout next year and 6.0 from Rendon. If that’s a third of your production, you’re getting 43.5 WAR from your team, which would have tied for ninth in baseball in 2019, the last full season. Ninth is in the playoffs, generally speaking, but just barely. But as the parenthetical above states, this calculation is built on a flawed premise.
Before we get into the flaw, though, let’s continue the exercise and add Ohtani, Fletcher, and even Upton, who are owed a combined $37.5M next year, $28M of that heading Upton’s way.
Ohtani is already at 5.8 fWAR this year, an absurd total that FanGraphs projects to reach a Trout-adjacent 8.5 by year’s end. Even if he regresses significantly next year, 6.0 WAR is a ton, and he may have that this season by the trade deadline, making it dubious the regression would be that substantial.
Fletcher is a key here. Only 27, the undersized infielder’s been remarkably consistent in his PA/WAR rate, needing between 150 and 210 plate appearances to generate one win above replacement in each season of his career. Over a full season, that puts his floor at something like 3.0 WAR.
Upton, like seemingly every Angels star, has had issues staying on the field. His last full season came in 2018, when he regressed from a massive 2017 (5.2 fWAR) to mere serviceability (2.9 fWAR). He’s been good this year when healthy, but 1.5 WAR might be a generous estimate for him in 2022.
Adding all that together, our block of five players is now owed roughly $108M combined, or perhaps half the payroll of a contending team in 2022. They’re also projected to put together 25.0 WAR, even with Upton expected to struggle, something that extrapolates to 50 WAR for the team, fifth-best in baseball in 2019, in this proportional $/WAR dichotomy we keep saying is flawed.
So why is it flawed?
The way the collective bargaining agreement is structured, a team gets an outsized amount of its production from its least experienced players relative to the money they’re paid. They don’t even hit arbitration until they’ve accumulated at least two years of service time. If Marsh, the recent debutant, has a decent rookie year, he’ll do it while earning something close to the league minimum salary, making him something like eight times more valuable per dollar than Trout.
In other words, the Angels are set. So long as…
So long as Trout stays healthy.
So long as Rendon gets healthy and shows no lasting effects from the injuries.
So long as Ohtani stays within a standard deviation or so of his current track.
So long as they don’t make a flop of a free agent signing and create another Pujols situation, or even an Upton situation.
This last might be the biggest risk. Rendon looks likely to play in close to 100 games this year, and he has a good track record of health prior to this season. Trout, similarly, has had bumps and bruises but rarely anything that’s held him out for this long a stretch of time. Ohtani’s Tommy John history may be a concern, but Tommy John is rather common these days and Ohtani’s value is coming more from the plate than the mound, meaning while he saves them from turning to a void for that spot in the rotation, it’s his bat they really need.
Fletcher is a remarkable asset at the price he’s paid, as is Trout and potentially Rendon. Ohtani is an otherworldly asset at his price. And while the division is hard—the Astros show few signs of letting up, the A’s can rarely be counted out, the Mariners seem like they might finally have something—if your team can put up 50 WAR together, you’re going to be difficult to beat.
As always, we’ll see. Maybe they’ll mess it up themselves. Maybe fate will mess it up for them. But at least as of now, it still seems like a question of when for the Angels. Not if. And the likeliest answer is 2022.
