This is the weekend we’ve been waiting for.
Oklahoma meets Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Texas plays Georgia in Athens. Notre Dame goes to Pennsylvania to deal with a familiar spoiler in Pitt. Meanwhile, more and more eyes turn towards the ACC, drenched with morbid curiosity.
Let’s get to what it all means.
The fine print:
- Probabilities come from Friday morning. If they differ at all from what we listed elsewhere, it’s just normal deviations from a “small” sample of simulations. 10,000 simulations is a lot, but probabilities wobble by a percentage point or two when you only run that many in every set.
- Movelor is our model’s power rating system. It gives us spreads.
- Our model still includes a limited number of tiebreaker scenarios. This is enough to cover most of them, but not all of them. Here are details.
- We’re only focusing on games with conference championship and playoff impact. That leaves us with plenty of games, but there are always games left out.
- When we list out the standings, we only go down far enough to include teams with a 5% or better chance of making their conference title game.
SEC
Standings:
- Texas A&M: 6–0
- Alabama: 6–0
- Georgia: 6–1
- Mississippi: 5–1
- Texas: 4–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- South Carolina at Texas A&M (Texas A&M by 15.1)
- Oklahoma at Alabama (Alabama by 12.1)
- Florida at Mississippi (Mississippi by 15.2)
- Texas at Georgia (Georgia by 7.8)
Playoff probabilities:
- Alabama: 87% right now, 95% with a win, 56% with a loss
- Georgia: 93% right now, 99% with a win, 77% with a loss
- Mississippi: 83% right now, 92% with a win, 33% with a loss
- Oklahoma: 17% right now, 57% with a win, 7% with a loss
- Texas: 34% right now, 72% with a win, 19% with a loss
- Texas A&M: 97% right now, 100% with a win, 84% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Alabama: 82% right now, 92% with a win, 44% with a loss
- Georgia: 25% right now, 34% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Mississippi: 18% right now, 22% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Texas: 8% right now, 30% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Texas A&M: 66% right now, 74% with a win, 24% with a loss
Mississippi’s the one that raises eyebrows, and it’s possible our model—which was lower than consensus on these guys before the first CFP rankings—is low on these guys again. The thing with Mississippi is that if you go through their schedule game by game, only one or two results look impressive in a vacuum. Everything else ranges from fine to concerning. The more scrutiny, the worse for their chances.
ACC & Notre Dame
Standings:
- Georgia Tech: 5–1
- Virginia: 5–1
- SMU: 5–1
- Pitt: 5–1
- Duke: 4–1
- Louisville: 4–2
- Miami: 3–2
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Clemson at Louisville (Louisville by 2.3)
- Notre Dame at Pitt (Notre Dame by 11.3)
- NC State at Miami (Miami by 20.6)
- Georgia Tech at Boston College (Georgia Tech by 14.9)
- Virginia at Duke (Duke by 4.9)
Playoff probabilities:
- Duke: 6% right now, 10% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Georgia Tech: 29% right now, 34% with a win, 3% with a loss
- Louisville: 2% right now, 3% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Miami: 32% right now, 35% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Notre Dame: 78% right now, 94% with a win, 19% with a loss
- Pitt: 10% right now, 16% with a win, 8% with a loss
- Virginia: 9% right now, 23% with a win, 1% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Duke: 36% right now, 54% with a win, 3% with a loss
- Georgia Tech: 51% right now, 59% with a win, 11% with a loss
- Louisville: 3% right now, 6% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Miami: 6% right now, 6% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Pitt: 20% right now
- Virginia: 31% right now, 72% with a win, 7% with a loss
Could Notre Dame really make the playoff with a third loss? 19% isn’t exactly likely, but the committee’s shown appreciation for the Irish, who’d be 1–3 against ranked teams. In most scenarios, at least one 9–3 team makes the playoff. Notre Dame wouldn’t be the favorite for that spot, but they’d probably have at least some sort of path.
Big Ten
Standings:
- Indiana: 7–0
- Ohio State: 6–0
- Michigan: 5–1
- Oregon: 5–1
- USC: 5–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Minnesota at Oregon (Oregon by 28.2)
- Wisconsin at Indiana (Indiana by 25.0)
- Michigan vs. Northwestern (Michigan by 10.1)
- Iowa at USC (USC by 4.7)
- UCLA at Ohio State (Ohio State by 37.3)
Playoff probabilities:
- Indiana: 100% right now, 100% with a win, 95% with a loss
- Iowa: 2% right now, 5% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Michigan: 3% right now, 4% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Ohio State: 100% right now, 100% with a win, 99% with a loss
- Oregon: 79% right now, 81% with a win, 36% with a loss
- USC: 8% right now, 13% with a win, 0% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Indiana: 98% right now, 99% with a win, 83% with a loss
- Michigan: 4% right now, 5% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Ohio State: 92% right now, 92% with a win, 47% with a loss
- Oregon: 4% right now, 4% with a win, 0% with a loss
- USC: 2% right now, 3% with a win, 0% with a loss
It’s surprising that USC isn’t ranked higher already. It demonstrates the power of media narrative over committee perceptions. It’s possible our model is underrating the impact of the reevaluation USC will receive if they beat Iowa. We might have our threshold too low on what quality of win warrants a committee reevaluation. Oregon didn’t get that reevaluation, though. And Oregon won in Iowa City.
Big 12
Standings:
- Texas Tech: 6–1
- BYU: 5–1
- Cincinnati: 5–1
- Houston: 5–2
- Utah: 4–2
- Arizona State: 4–2
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Arizona at Cincinnati (Cincinnati by 8.0)
- West Virginia at Arizona State (Arizona State by 12.5)
- UCF at Texas Tech (Texas Tech by 23.9)
- Utah at Baylor (Utah by 10.9)
- TCU at BYU (BYU by 9.9)
Playoff probabilities:
- Arizona State: 2% right now, 3% with a win, 0% with a loss
- BYU: 33% right now, 42% with a win, 8% with a loss
- Cincinnati: 9% right now, 12% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Texas Tech: 90% right now, 93% with a win, 46% with a loss
- Utah: 43% right now, 55% with a win, 0% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Arizona State: 8% right now, 10% with a win, 0% with a loss
- BYU: 51% right now, 60% with a win, 25% with a loss
- Cincinnati: 33% right now, 41% with a win, 10% with a loss
- Texas Tech: 92% right now, 95% with a win, 50% with a loss
- Utah: 12% right now, 15% with a win, 0% with a loss
For what it’s worth, betting markets are lower than Movelor on both Cincinnati and BYU this weekend.
American
Standings:
- Navy: 5–1
- North Texas: 4–1
- USF: 4–1
- Tulane: 4–1
- East Carolina: 4–1
- Memphis: 4–2
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- USF at Navy (USF by 15.8)
- North Texas at UAB (North Texas by 19.5)
- Memphis at East Carolina (Memphis by 4.7)
- Florida Atlantic at Tulane (Tulane by 19.4)
Playoff probabilities:
- North Texas: 20% right now, 22% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Tulane: 10% right now, 11% with a win, 0% with a loss
- USF: 42% right now, 48% with a win, 3% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- East Carolina: 15% right now, 38% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Memphis: 4% right now, 6% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Navy: 3% right now, 21% with a win, 0% with a loss
- North Texas: 57% right now, 62% with a win, 8% with a loss
- Tulane: 55% right now, 61% with a win, 8% with a loss
- USF: 66% right now, 75% with a win, 10% with a loss
USF’s only 2–2 on the road, but those wins came in the Swamp and in arguably the toughest environment Denton’s ever offered. Navy has yet to cover a Movelor spread this year. (They’re the only team who’s done that.)
Sun Belt
Standings, East Division:
- James Madison: 6–0
- Coastal Carolina: 5–1
- Old Dominion: 4–2
Standings, West Division:
- Southern Miss: 5–0
- Troy: 4–2
- Arkansas State: 4–2
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Appalachian State at James Madison (James Madison by 25.0)
- Texas State at Southern Miss (Southern Miss by 5.5)
- Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern (Georgia Southern by 5.7)
Playoff probabilities:
- James Madison: 47% right now, 49% with a win, 5% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Coastal Carolina: 1% right now, 4% with a win, 0% with a loss
- James Madison: 97% right now, 99% with a win, 64% with a loss
- Southern Miss: 85% right now, 93% with a win, 69% with a loss
Sorry for not getting these out before Old Dominion played Troy las tnight. ODU’s still technically alive in the East, but they’d need all three remaining JMU and CCU conference games to go right.
Mountain West
Standings:
- San Diego State: 4–1
- Boise State: 4–1
- Hawaii: 4–2
- UNLV: 3–2
- Fresno State: 3–2
- New Mexico: 3–2
- Utah State: 3–2
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Colorado State at New Mexico (New Mexico by 15.7)
- Utah State at UNLV (UNLV by 7.9)
- Boise State at San Diego State (Boise State by 5.6)
- Wyoming at Fresno State (Fresno State by 5.6)
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Boise State: 76% right now, 94% with a win, 42% with a loss
- Fresno State: 15% right now, 23% with a win, 1% with a loss
- New Mexico: 20% right now, 23% with a win, 1% with a loss
- San Diego State: 38% right now, 75% with a win, 18% with a loss
- UNLV: 24% right now, 33% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Utah State: 5% right now, 16% with a win, 0% with a loss
Technically, Wyoming and San Jose State aren’t eliminated yet.
MAC
Standings:
- Western Michigan: 5–1
- Central Michigan: 4–2
- Ohio: 4–2
- Toledo: 4–2
- Buffalo: 4–2
- Miami (OH): 4–2
There’s one MAC game tomorrow (Eastern Michigan at Ball State), but most of it went down on the weeknights. Tight race. Nobody blink.
Conference USA
Standings:
- Kennesaw State: 5–0
- Jacksonville State: 5–0
- Western Kentucky: 5–1
- Liberty: 3–2
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky (Western Kentucky by 20.5)
- Liberty at FIU (Liberty by 0.1)
- Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State (Jacksonville State by 4.1)
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Jacksonville State: 70% right now, 92% with a win, 34% with a loss
- Kennesaw State: 55% right now, 93% with a win, 31% with a loss
- Liberty: 4% right now, 7% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Western Kentucky: 72% right now, 74% with a win, 42% with a loss
Missouri State is 4–1 in conference, but I believe they’re ineligible for the postseason because they’re still transitioning from the FCS.
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