Signing day is well underway, and Texas A&M, as expected, is pulling in the top signing class in the country. The boosters are coming through. Jimbo Fisher’s coming through. Texas A&M’s having a big, big offseason.
As should be the case, when amassing the most talented freshman class in the country, Texas A&M is now welcoming high expectations. National championship expectations. Which leads to a rather simple question:
Will it happen?
It’s not something we can know in advance. The top recruiting class ranking, at least at 247, has been dominated by Alabama for the last decade, with Georgia poking in and stealing it twice in the last four years but no one else making such a move. Given Alabama’s chokehold on the sport, and given Georgia’s the reigning champion, and given that having more talented players makes you a better football team, this all bodes well for Texas A&M. But to state something plainly obvious, it’s not a done deal.
For one thing, we don’t know whether Texas A&M will sustain this. They’ve routinely posted top-ten recruiting classes under Jimbo Fisher, but this is the first top-three class they’ve grabbed. One great recruiting class doesn’t change a program forever, and if they recede even slightly, they’ll be out-talented again.
For another, we don’t know how well Fisher will do the coaching piece of the thing. A&M’s been solid under him, but they still went 8-4 this year, and that was with a team capable of beating Alabama, which they did. That’s a thing about the SEC, and about the SEC West, in particular—it’s hard to win games in there consistently. We’ve yet to see formal scheduling plans for when Oklahoma and Texas join the league, presumably sometime during this class’s time in College Station, but one would imagine they won’t dilute A&M’s schedule significantly, even if they’re all in the same “pod,” playing one another annually. The schedule will remain brutal.
For the last thing, though, and this is the real main thing here, there’s just so much that can go wrong. Texas boasted the third-best recruiting class in the nation in 2018, and again in 2019, and what exactly came of that? LSU followed up the national championship with a pair of top-five classes and is below .500 since. And while first is a different beast, it’s worth noting that the second and third-best classes on 247 this year belong to Alabama and Georgia, with Texas and Oklahoma also in the top ten and LSU more likely than not back among those ranks next year, post-transition. The top class in the country is the best you can do, but when your conference has, including incoming members, 16 of the top 31 classes in the country, you aren’t as assured of being the most talented team as you’d be in the Pac-12 or the Big 12 or the ACC, or even in the Big Ten.
So, we’ll see where this ends up. A&M’s certainly on the rise. But they’ve got a steep path to climb, and it’s as crowded as crowded gets.
