Two weeks left.
(Three if you’re a SWAC fan.)
Let’s see what’s on the line.
The fine print:
- Probabilities come from Friday morning. If they differ at all from what we listed elsewhere, it’s just normal deviations from a “small” sample of simulations. 10,000 simulations is a lot, but probabilities wobble by a percentage point or two when you only run that many in every set.
- Movelor is our model’s power rating system. It gives us spreads.
- Our model still includes a limited number of tiebreaker scenarios. This is enough to cover most of them, but not all of them. Here are details.
- We’re only focusing on games with conference championship and playoff impact. That leaves us with plenty of games, but there are always games left out.
- When we list out the standings, we only go down far enough to include teams with a 5% or better chance of making their conference title game.
MVFC
Standings:
- North Dakota State: 7–0
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Indiana State at Youngstown State (Youngstown State by 22.6)
- North Dakota at Murray State (North Dakota by 30.7)
- South Dakota at Southern Illinois (Southern Illinois by 2.1)
- Illinois State at South Dakota State (South Dakota State by 10.9)
- Northern Iowa at North Dakota State (North Dakota State by 37.9)
Playoff probabilities:
- Illinois State: 64% right now, 98% with a win, 54% with a loss
- North Dakota: 79% right now, 80% with a win, 28% with a loss
- North Dakota State: 100%
- South Dakota: 53% right now, 100% with a win, 15% with a loss
- South Dakota State: 91% right now, 100% with a win, 59% with a loss
- Southern Illinois: 23% right now, 41% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Youngstown State: 73% right now, 79% with a win, 4% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- North Dakota State: 100%
Two huge games along the bubble.
Big Sky
Standings:
- Montana: 6–0
- Montana State: 6–0
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Cal Poly at Northern Arizona (Northern Arizona by 14.7)
- Montana at Portland State (Montana by 22.8)
- Idaho at Sacramento State (Sacramento State by 5.9)
- UC Davis at Montana State (Montana State by 21.1)
Playoff probabilities:
- Montana: 100%
- Montana State: 100%
- Northern Arizona: 70% right now, 82% with a win, 7% with a loss
- Sacramento State: 17% right now, 26% with a win, 0% with a loss
- UC Davis: 100%
Conference championship probabilities:
- Montana: 19% right now, 19% with a win, 13% with a loss
- Montana State: 81% right now, 82% with a win, 72% with a loss
- UC Davis: 0% right now, 4% with a win, 0% with a loss
That 4% number for UC Davis is misleading. For UC Davis to win the Big Sky, UC Davis needs Portland State to upset Montana.
UAC
Standings:
- Tarleton State: 5–1
- Abilene Christian: 5–1
- Southern Utah: 4–2
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Samford at Austin Peay (Austin Peay by 24.1)
- Abilene Christian at Eastern Kentucky (Abilene Christian by 9.7)
- North Alabama at Tarleton State (Tarleton State by 32.4)
- Central Arkansas at Southern Utah (Southern Utah by 18.4)
Playoff probabilities:
- Abilene Christian: 72% right now, 88% with a win, 24% with a loss
- Southern Utah: 4% right now, 5% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Tarleton State: 100%
Conference championship probabilities:
- Abilene Christian: 65% right now, 85% with a win, 5% with a loss
- Tarleton State: 34% right now, 35% with a win, 9% with a loss
- Southern Utah: 1% right now, 1% with a win, 0% with a loss
Similar to what happened with UC Davis’s numbers, that 1% for Southern Utah is independent of other results.
Ivy League
Standings:
- Harvard: 5–0
- Yale: 4–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Penn at Harvard (Harvard by 22.6)
- Yale at Princeton (Yale by 8.5)
- Cornell at Dartmouth (Dartmouth by 8.5)
Playoff probabilities:
- Dartmouth: 69% right now, 84% with a win, 30% with a loss
- Harvard: 100%
- Penn: 1% right now, 10% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Yale: 68% right now, 85% with a win, 25% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Harvard: 71% right now, 72% with a win, 53% with a loss
- Yale: 29% right now, 39% with a win, 3% with a loss
Periodic reminder: Our model might be overconfident about how the committee treats the Ivy League. The committee’s never seeded and selected Ivy League teams before, and the Ivy League plays a shorter overall schedule (fewer conference and nonconference games combined) than the rest of the FCS.
CAA
Standings:
- Rhode Island: 6–0
- Villanova: 6–1
- Monmouth: 5–1
- Maine: 5–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- New Hampshire at Bryant (New Hampshire by 14.6)
- Monmouth at North Carolina A&T (Monmouth by 19.2)
- Rhode Island at Maine (Rhode Island by 4.2)
- Stony Brook at Villanova (Villanova by 12.8)
Playoff probabilities:
- Maine: 4% right now, 11% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Monmouth: 91% right now, 97% with a win, 45% with a loss
- New Hampshire: 4% right now, 5% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Rhode Island: 95% right now, 100% with a win, 88% with a loss
- Villanova: 97% right now, 100% with a win, 86% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Maine: 4% right now, 11% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Monmouth: 11% right now, 13% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Rhode Island: 74% right now, 98% with a win, 34% with a loss
- Villanova: 11% right now, 13% with a win, 0% with a loss
Our model hasn’t gotten to point differential yet, so if Maine wins, these probabilities might be a little off. Whatever happens, we’ll get the necessary tiebreakers into the model before next week’s games.
Southland
Standings:
- Stephen F. Austin: 6–0
- Lamar: 5–1
- Southeastern Louisiana: 5–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Southeastern Louisiana at Incarnate Word (Southeastern Louisiana by 2.7)
- Lamar at Stephen F. Austin (Stephen F. Austin by 17.9)
Playoff probabilities:
- Lamar: 73% right now, 100% with a win, 69% with a loss
- Southeastern Louisiana: 48% right now, 84% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Stephen F. Austin: 100% right now, 100% with a win, 97% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Lamar: 9% right now, 75% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Southeastern Louisiana: 1% right now, 1% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Stephen F. Austin: 90% right now, 100% with a win, 18% with a loss
We aren’t positive about the Southland tiebreaker rules, so I wouldn’t go so far as to say SFA clinches with a win. But if SFA beats Lamar, the Lumberjacks should win the Southland regardless. They’re going to be a big favorite against Northwestern State.
SoCon
Standings:
- Mercer: 7–0
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- East Tennessee State at Western Carolina (Western Carolina by 8.2)
- Chattanooga at Mercer (Mercer by 15.0)
Playoff probabilities:
- Mercer: 100%
- Western Carolina: 20% right now, 27% with a win, 0% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Mercer: 100%
SWAC
Standings, East Division:
- Jackson State: 5–1
- Alabama State: 5–1
Standings, West Division:
- Prairie View A&M: 5–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Bethune–Cookman at Jackson State (
- Arkansas–Pine Bluff at Prairie View A&M (
- Alabama State at Mississippi Valley State (
Playoff probabilities:
- Alabama State*****: 29% right now, 30% with a win, 0% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Alabama State: 18% right now, 19% with a win, 3% with a loss
- Jackson State: 82% right now, 90% with a win, 3% with a loss
- Prairie View A&M: 100% right now, 100% with a win, 100% with a loss
Technically, Prairie View could still miss the SWAC Championship. Technically, Bethune–Cookman could get in there out of the East. More likely, it’s PVAM against either Jackson State or Alabama State.
We still haven’t heard definitively whether Alabama State would decline playoff consideration in favor of playing Tuskegee in the traditional Turkey Day Classic.
OVC–Big South
Standings:
- Tennessee Tech: 7–0
- UT Martin: 5–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Tennessee Tech at Kentucky (Kentucky by 23.1)
- Charleston Southern at UT Martin (UT Martin by 7.7)
- Gardner–Webb at Tennessee State (Gardner–Webb by 14.7)
Playoff probabilities:
- Gardner–Webb: 12% right now, 14% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Tennessee Tech: 100%
- UT Martin: 11% right now, 15% with a win, 0% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- UT Martin: 11% right now, 15% with a win, 0% with a loss
Patriot League
Standings:
- Lehigh: 5–0
- Lafayette: 5–0
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Lehigh at Colgate (Lehigh by 20.1)
- Lafayette at Richmond (Richmond by 0.4)
Playoff probabilities:
- Lafayette: 22% right now, 26% with a win, 18% with a loss
- Lehigh: 100%
Conference championship probabilities:
- Lafayette: 22% right now, 26% with a win, 18% with a loss
- Lehigh: 78% right now, 78% with a win, 73% with a loss
Pioneer League
Standings:
- Drake: 5–1
- St. Thomas: 5–2
- Presbyterian: 4–2
- Dayton: 4–2
- San Diego: 4–2
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Drake at Dayton (Drake by 6.2)
- Presbyterian at St. Thomas (St. Thomas by 10.6)
- Butler at San Diego (San Diego by 5.3)
Playoff probabilities:
- Dayton: 3% right now, 8% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Drake: 92% right now, 98% with a win, 80% with a loss
- Presbyterian: 0% right now, 2% with a win, 0% with a loss
- San Diego: 1% right now, 2% with a win, 0% with a loss
- St. Thomas: 3% right now, 5% with a win, 0% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Dayton: 3% right now, 8% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Drake: 92% right now, 98% with a win, 80% with a loss
- Presbyterian: 0% right now, 1% with a win, 0% with a loss
- San Diego: 1% right now, 2% with a win, 0% with a loss
- St. Thomas: 3% right now, 4% with a win, 0% with a loss
NEC
Standings:
- Central Connecticut State: 5–0
- Duquesne: 3–2
- Mercyhurst: 3–2
- Wagner: 3–2
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Central Connecticut State at Duquesne (Duquesne by 2.3)
- Robert Morris at Mercyhurst (Mercyhurst by 7.0)
- Stonehill at Wagner (Wagner by 7.1)
Playoff probabilities:
- Duquesne: 10% right now, 19% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Central Connecticut State: 89% right now, 100% with a win, 81% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Duquesne: 10% right now, 19% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Central Connecticut State: 89% right now, 100% with a win, 81% with a loss
Technically, there are paths for Mercyhurst and Wagner. Those are less than 1-in-200 likely, though.
MEAC
Standings:
- Delaware State: 3–0
- South Carolina State: 3–0
- North Carolina Central: 2–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- South Carolina State at North Carolina Central (North Carolina Central by 2.7)
- Howard at Delaware State (Delaware State by 12.0)
Conference championship probabilities:
- Delaware State: 38% right now, 45% with a win, 11% with a loss
- North Carolina Central: 26% right now, 46% with a win, 0% with a loss
- South Carolina State: 36% right now, 70% with a win, 10% with a loss
**
