Note, 10/29: If you’re looking for information specifically on JMU, this post has more of it following last night’s win.
Penn State is out. Vanderbilt is trying to get in. Cincinnati and Utah have fully graduated from mid-majordom. James Madison could take the mid-major lead this very night. It’s Week 10, and there’s a lot going on. Let’s see what our model has to say about it.
We’re going conference by conference, focusing on playoff probabilities and the chances teams make their conference championship. If you want this for the FCS, we’ll try to have it up on the site sometime before Thursday night. Some fine print:
- Probabilities come from Tuesday morning, before any weeknight games this week. If they differ at all from what we listed elsewhere, it’s just normal deviations from a “small” sample of simulations. 10,000 simulations is a lot, but probabilities wobble by a percentage point or two when you only run that many in every set.
- Movelor is our model’s power rating system. It gives us spreads.
- Our model currently only accounts for two-way and three-way ties that can be solved by direct head-to-head. No other conference tiebreakers are included in our model yet this year. We’ll start adding more next week.
- We’re only focusing on games with conference championship and playoff impact. That leaves us with plenty of games, but there are always games left out.
- When we list out the standings, we only go down far enough to include teams with a 5% or better chance of making their conference title game.
SEC
Standings:
- Texas A&M: 5–0
- Alabama: 5–0
- Mississippi: 4–1
- Georgia: 4–1
- Vanderbilt: 3–1
- Texas: 3–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Vanderbilt at Texas (Texas by 5.9)
- Georgia vs. Florida (Georgia by 14.6)
- South Carolina at Mississippi (Mississippi by 11.7)
- Oklahoma at Tennessee (Tennessee by 5.6)
Playoff probabilities:
- Georgia: 68% right now, 76% with a win, 29% with a loss
- Mississippi: 55% right now, 66% with a win, 11% with a loss
- Oklahoma: 2% right now, 7% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Tennessee: 9% right now, 13% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Texas: 17% right now, 24% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Vanderbilt: 13% right now, 33% with a win, 3% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Georgia: 29% right now, 34% with a win, 3% with a loss
- Mississippi: 25% right now, 32% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Texas: 11% right now, 16% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Vanderbilt: 7% right now, 18% with a win, 1% with a loss
Whoever wins between Oklahoma and Tennessee is still in an uphill battle, and the same’s true for Texas and Vanderbilt. Those winners are going to have momentum, though, and it’s obviously better to be alive than dead. We wrote more yesterday about why our model’s low on Mississippi’s playoff chances. We do think that’s a mirage and that they’re safer than they appear, but they’d like Oklahoma to win this one ahead of those first committee rankings next week. (After the first rankings, it won’t hurt Mississippi that much if Oklahoma falls apart. The committee tends to anchor the rankings based on their initial perceptions.) We said this above, but our model doesn’t account for every single tiebreaker scenario yet, so it’s possible some of these teams could be eliminated from the conference championship race with a loss.
Big 12
Standings:
- BYU: 5–0
- Cincinnati: 5–0
- Houston: 4–1
- Texas Tech: 4–1
- TCU: 3–2
- Utah: 3–2
- Arizona State: 3–2
- Kansas State: 3–2
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- West Virginia at Houston (Houston by 11.5)
- Arizona State at Iowa State (Iowa State by 1.2)
- Texas Tech at Kansas State (Texas Tech by 4.5)
- Cincinnati at Utah (Utah by 8.8)
Playoff probabilities:
- Cincinnati: 26% right now, 55% with a win, 16% with a loss
- Houston: 8% right now, 10% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Texas Tech: 66% right now, 83% with a win, 39% with a loss
- Utah: 31% right now, 41% with a win, 2% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Arizona State: 5% right now, 11% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Cincinnati: 46% right now, 80% with a win, 34% with a loss
- Houston: 17% right now, 21% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Kansas State: 4% right now, 10% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Texas Tech: 51% right now, 68% with a win, 22% with a loss
- Utah: 12% right now, 16% with a win, 0% with a loss
If you’re comparing these numbers and wondering if there’s a chance the Big 12 champion could miss the College Football Playoff, the answer is yes. But it’s really unlikely (0.5%) that the Big 12 is left out completely. If there’s going to be a pileup, it’s probably going to happen at second place in the standings, with the first-place finisher two or three games ahead of the pack. Maybe someone like Kansas State can sneak through and upset someone like BYU in the championship, but in that scenario, BYU will probably get into the playoff anyway, with K-State potentially left out if they aren’t ranked high enough. We’d just have two mid-major conference champions instead of one.
ACC & Notre Dame
Standings:
- Georgia Tech: 5–0
- Virginia: 4–0
- Pitt: 4–1
- Louisville: 3–1
- SMU: 3–1
- Duke: 3–1
- Miami: 2–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Miami at SMU (Miami by 8.3)
- Duke at Clemson (Clemson by 6.9)
- Louisville at Virginia Tech (Louisville by 9.1)
- Notre Dame at Boston College (Notre Dame by 28.5)
- Pitt at Stanford (Pitt by 17.1)
- Virginia at Cal (Virginia by 8.0)
- Georgia Tech at NC State (Georgia Tech by 12.0)
Playoff probabilities:
- Duke: 2% right now, 7% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Georgia Tech: 55% right now, 63% with a win, 24% with a loss
- Louisville: 27% right now, 34% with a win, 4% with a loss
- Miami: 60% right now, 73% with a win, 27% with a loss
- Notre Dame: 73% right now, 75% with a win, 15% with a loss
- Pitt: 6% right now, 7% with a win, 0% with a loss
- SMU: 3% right now, 11% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Virginia: 19% right now, 25% with a win, 5% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Duke: 10% right now, 26% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Georgia Tech: 77% right now, 86% with a win, 44% with a loss
- Louisville: 15% right now, 20% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Miami: 28% right now, 38% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Pitt: 12% right now, 14% with a win, 1% with a loss
- SMU: 10% right now, 30% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Virginia: 47% right now, 58% with a win, 19% with a loss
For tiebreaker purposes alone, it’s good that the ACC is moving to a nine-game schedule. But in the meantime, this is a really fun race.
Big Ten
Standings:
- Indiana: 5–0
- Ohio State: 4–0
- Iowa: 4–1
- Michigan: 4–1
- Oregon: 4–1
- USC: 3–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Penn State at Ohio State (Ohio State by 24.4)
- Indiana at Maryland (Indiana by 19.2)
- Purdue at Michigan (Michigan by 23.6)
- USC at Nebraska (USC by 6.3)
Playoff probabilities:
- Indiana: 98% right now, 99% with a win, 88% with a loss
- Michigan: 5% right now, 6% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Ohio State: 100% right now, 100% with a win, 96% with a loss
- USC: 14% right now, 21% with a win, 2% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Indiana: 90% right now, 94% with a win, 56% with a loss
- Michigan: 5% right now, 6% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Ohio State: 90% right now, 92% with a win, 59% with a loss
- USC: 3% right now, 5% with a win, 0% with a loss
This kind of goes without saying, but USC’s the character to watch here. Even if one of the other three does get trap-gamed, they’re either fine to still make the playoff or they were almost dead already. Beyond USC’s own season, whether they’re ranked in the first CFP rankings will shape the committee’s treatment of Notre Dame and Michigan. Also: You get a lot of search results if you google “Lincoln Riley hot seat.”
The American
Standings:
- Navy: 5–0
- Tulane: 3–0
- Memphis: 3–1
- North Texas: 3–1
- USF: 3–1
- Temple: 3–1
- East Carolina: 2–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Tulane at UTSA (Tulane by 5.0)
- Memphis at Rice (Memphis by 18.6)
- Navy at North Texas (North Texas by 13.0)
- East Carolina at Temple (East Carolina by 5.4)
Playoff probabilities:
- Memphis: 20% right now, 23% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Navy: 2% right now, 6% with a win, 0% with a loss
- North Texas: 14% right now, 17% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Tulane: 13% right now, 19% with a win, 2% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- East Carolina: 10% right now, 14% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Memphis: 41% right now, 45% with a win, 8% with a loss
- Navy: 11% right now, 38% with a win, 5% with a loss
- North Texas: 40% right now, 48% with a win, 3% with a loss
- Temple: 1% right now, 4% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Tulane: 46% right now, 63% with a win, 17% with a loss
It’s unclear if Memphis could catch USF in playoff probability this week. Win, and it’ll be close.
Sun Belt
Standings, East Division:
- James Madison: 4–0
- Coastal Carolina: 3–1
- Marshall: 2–1
Standings, West Division:
- Southern Miss: 4–0
- Troy: 4–0
- Arkansas State: 3–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- James Madison at Texas State (James Madison by 5.6)
- Marshall at Coastal Carolina (Marshall by 10.4)
- Arkansas State at Troy (Troy by 11.8)
Playoff probabilities:
- James Madison: 19% right now, 27% with a win, 3% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Arkansas State: 9% right now, 40% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Coastal Carolina: 3% right now, 12% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Marshall: 23% right now, 29% with a win, 4% with a loss
- James Madison: 73% right now, 81% with a win, 59% with a loss
- Troy: 58% right now, 67% with a win, 23% with a loss
What our model is saying here is that with an average win tonight, JMU will pass USF as the favorite for the CFP’s fifth automatic bid. That’s with an average win—winning close isn’t as helpful as winning big, even for teams not really subject to the eye test—and as we’ve caveated before, the committee has been surprisingly unkind to the Sun Belt in recent years. But that projected 12th seed could change hands tonight.
Mountain West
Standings:
- Boise State: 4–0
- San Diego State: 3–0
- Hawaii: 3–1
- UNLV: 2–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- New Mexico at UNLV (UNLV by 10.0)
- Fresno State at Boise State (Boise State by 19.7)
- Wyoming at San Diego State (San Diego State by 6.3)
- Hawaii at San Jose State (Hawaii by 2.1)
Playoff probabilities:
- Boise State: 12% right now, 14% with a win, 0% with a loss
- San Diego State: 2% right now, 3% with a win, 0% with a loss
- UNLV: 3% right now, 4% with a win, 0% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Boise State: 92% right now, 94% with a win, 69% with a loss
- Fresno State: 1% right now, 10% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Hawaii: 22% right now, 32% with a win, 10% with a loss
- New Mexico: 3% right now, 13% with a win, 0% with a loss
- San Diego State: 34% right now, 44% with a win, 14% with a loss
- San Jose State: 3% right now, 7% with a win, 0% with a loss
- UNLV: 40% right now, 48% with a win, 13% with a loss
- Wyoming: 3% right now, 9% with a win, 0% with a loss
MAC
Standings:
- Miami (OH): 4–0
- Central Michigan: 3–1
- Ohio: 3–1
- Buffalo: 3–1
- Western Michigan: 3–1
- Toledo: 2–2
- Ball State: 2–2
- Kent State: 2–2
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Buffalo at Bowling Green (Bowling Green by 8.1)
- Central Michigan at Western Michigan (Western Michigan by 8.7)
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Buffalo: 5% right now, 13% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Central Michigan: 15% right now, 42% with a win, 5% with a loss
- Western Michigan: 31% right now, 41% with a win, 6% with a loss
MACtion starts next week, with 0–8 UMass making what I assume is its Tuesday night debut.
Conference USA
Standings:
- Kennesaw State: 3–0
- Jacksonville State: 3–0
- Western Kentucky: 4–1
- Missouri State: 2–1
- Liberty: 2–1
- Louisiana Tech: 2–2
- Delaware: 2–2
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- UTEP at Kennesaw State (Kennesaw State by 7.0)
- Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee (Jacksonville State by 8.4)
- FIU at Missouri State (Missouri State by 8.9)
- Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech (Louisiana Tech by 18.7)
- Delaware at Liberty (Liberty by 5.3)
- New Mexico State at Western Kentucky (Western Kentucky by 17.4)
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- FIU: 2% right now, 8% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Jacksonville State: 60% right now, 70% with a win, 36% with a loss
- Kennesaw State: 39% right now, 49% with a win, 18% with a loss
- Liberty: 17% right now, 24% with a win, 4% with a loss
- Louisiana Tech: 9% right now, 10% with a win, 0% with a loss
- New Mexico State: 0% right now, 2% with a win, 0% with a loss
- UTEP: 2% right now, 5% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Western Kentucky: 70% right now, 75% with a win, 35% with a loss
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