For the second straight game, Kyle Schwarber is not in the Cubs lineup.
This is unusual.
It’s only the second time all year Schwarber hasn’t started in back-to-back games, the first coming in mid-April, and it comes on the heels of Schwarber homering in three straight.
Now, he was used as a pinch-hitter on Wednesday, and he could very well be used as a pinch-hitter again today, so it’s only consecutive non-starts—he wasn’t exactly ‘benched’ on Wednesday.
There are multitudes of possible explanations for this, depending how many contingencies you want to explore, but here are a few of the simplest:
It’s a rest thing
Baseball players deal with unreported nagging injuries from time to time. Just because Schwarber came out of the All-Star Break hitting like a madman doesn’t mean he isn’t banged up, so it’s possible the Cubs are taking advantage of yesterday’s off-day to give their left fielder a prolonged rest. It’s feasible they’d do this even if he weren’t hurt, to keep him fresh for the stretch run, but it’s more likely you’d see that with an infielder than a corner outfielder, given the physical demands of both positions.
It’s a production thing
Schwarber is seventh on the Cubs in wRC+ (ninth if you include Robel García and Jon Lester, who have only 55 plate appearances between them). Which is fine but isn’t as good as the Cubs want from him. It’s possible that even with the recent hot streak, those who make decisions have decided Schwarber should be more of a platoon option for the time being and are giving other hitters chances to lay their claim to the other half of that platoon.
It’s a defense thing
The Cubs aren’t taking Kris Bryant or Jason Heyward out of the lineup. But Bryant is not a good defensive outfielder (his UZR/150 is -13.2 over the last three years as an outfielder, meaning over a full season, he’d be about 13 runs worse defensively than an average outfielder), and Heyward is not a good centerfielder (UZR/150 of -9.8 as a centerfielder these last three years). The Cubs might just want Almora in there defensively on a hot day with the wind blowing out. And if you’re wondering why Bryant isn’t in the infield, with Schwarber in the lineup instead of Russell or Bote, both Russell and Bote are better against lefties over their careers than Schwarber is. Which brings up…
It’s a matchup thing
…the possibility that all of this is just a matchup thing. Sonny Gray, the Reds’ starter on Wednesday, demonstrates what’s called a “reverse split.” Meaning, even though he’s a righty, righties hit him better (.300 wOBA over his career) than lefties (.285). Now, a caveat here is that today’s starter, Eric Lauer, is a lefty who also demonstrates a reverse split, but it should be noted that Lauer’s only faced about 44 innings worth of lefties in his young career—not a very large sample size, so one that could easily be outweighed if his minor league data ran contrary (I haven’t been able to find such data in five minutes of searching, but if you can find it, let me know).
And to dispel the “But Albert Almora’s worse against lefties than Schwarber is this year!” crowd, Almora has only 78 plate appearances against lefties in 2019. Over his career, he’s much better than Schwarber against left-handed pitching.
It’s an Almora thing, or a Bote thing, or a Russell thing
The Cubs watch their guys more closely than any of us do, and it’s possible they’ve seen something encouraging out of Albert Almora lately, or David Bote, or Addison Russell, and want to get one or all of them into the lineup. It’s been said Joe Maddon likes to put guys in the leadoff spot as a way to help them break out of slumps (I believe the idea is that they approach at-bat’s differently, just trying to get on base rather than trying to drive anyone in?). It’s possible the team perceives Almora is close to breaking out and are trying to make that happen.
It’s a trade thing
The most sensational possibility is, of course, the one that will get the most attention, and Kyle Schwarber has long been the subject of trade speculation (though rarely has he been the subject of actual trade rumors). But as I wrote earlier this week, the Cubs have always seemed to value Schwarber more highly than the market values him, dating back to their willingness to use a high draft pick on him. As recently as this winter, it was reported the Cubs were telling other teams he was unavailable.
If a trade is imminent, then yes, it would make sense that Kyle Schwarber isn’t starting today. But there are countless examples of a player being removed in the middle of a game due to a trade, so if one isn’t happening in the next two hours and the Cubs want Schwarber in the lineup, he’s available until he isn’t. Also, in this scenario, him sitting on Wednesday is irrelevant. Meaning the speculation would only be happening over today’s lineup, and not over two days of lineups.
***
In total, the most likely explanation, combining a few of these possibilities, is the following:
The Cubs feel they need Almora’s defense in center field with the wind blowing out on a hot day. There are four uninjured guys who aren’t leaving the lineup right now (Bryant, Báez, Rizzo, Heyward) unless in absolute need of a day off. Choosing between Schwarber and Russell and Bote, then, the Cubs are choosing the two righties against a lefty who may or may not be a reverse split (looking at his numbers in the context of their sample size, I’d say it’s as likely as not that they’ll revert to normalcy over time). Schwarber is available to pinch hit against a right-handed reliever, and he’s liable to hit a ball onto Sheffield in any at-bat he takes in these conditions.
At any rate, it’s likely the question will be asked after the game, so we should know in the next six hours. Thank goodness the market has created beat reporters.
