Who’s the fourth?
We aren’t even to November, one Power Five league has yet to play, another Power Five league just started, and the question is already…who’s the fourth?
Of course, Ohio State could lose—Penn State may have been sloppy, and may have lost to Indiana in Bloomington, but they also outgained the Hoosiers by nearly 300 yards, and they aren’t the only worthy opponent left in the Buckeyes’ planner. Alabama could also lose—they have to play out the rest of an SEC schedule still, including the SEC Championship. Clemson, similarly, could lose—they have yet to play Notre Dame in South Bend, and they also have a conference title game to win. But each of those three is going to be favored in every remaining game, and while it may not be probable that any one of them will finish undefeated (though I’d imagine it’s getting close), the thought of any losing in a given week is doubtful enough that it’s fair to ask…who’s the fourth?
It’s possible the fourth will come from one of those three conferences. Wisconsin could easily finish with one loss, having given Ohio State a game in Indianapolis. Notre Dame could upset Clemson in South Bend only to fall in the ACC title game. Georgia could play Alabama close enough in the rematch to get in on a shrug in the absence of anyone else.
It appears more likely, though, that the fourth will come from outside. And while Oklahoma State has yet to lose a game, the Pokes haven’t exactly been impressive, and will probably be underdogs at least once more. Which brings us to the Pac-12, to Cincinnati, and to BYU.
BYU’s in a tough spot. Generally able to compile a schedule of moderate difficulty, the pandemic left them searching far and wide for opponents, landing with Boise State as their headliner. That game’s on the blue turf, and BYU—with the exception of an arms-length seven-point win against UTSA—has eviscerated teams, which at least gives the selection committee a few arguments to put in BYU’s favor. It’s also possible BYU will still add an opponent or two (or three), having open dates on November 14th, November 28th, and December 5th. They have the name cachet that could allow them to successfully court public opinion, and the committee has previously appeared malleable under public pressure (the eye test can say whatever it needs to say), but that’s a lot to bank on. As was said: BYU’s in a tough spot.
Cincinnati might be in a good spot. They’ve beaten Army by two scores. They walloped SMU last night in Dallas. They get UCF and Tulsa both on the road, and they have a conference championship game, setting their maximum win total at eleven, ten of which would be against FBS foes. If the American really wanted to break through, they’d cancel the Cincinnati/Temple game on November 28th and tell Cincinnati to work something out with BYU. Will that happen? It’s highly doubtful. Could Cincinnati lose another game and make such a move irrelevant? Of course—it’s more likely than not. But the chance is there. This is the year to seize it.
In the end, BYU and Cincinnati are still probably pipe dreams. The Pac-12 has a higher chance than normal of producing an undefeated champion, and a one-loss Oregon, USC, or Washington might have a strong enough claim, depending on the context. Oklahoma State could lose once and still win the Big 12. Kansas State might run the table from here. Those Big Ten, ACC, and SEC two-bid possibilities still exist. The most likely playoff is always a normal one, and that hasn’t changed. But the possibilities are wider than ever in these last six years. Making it more fun than normal to ask: Who’s the fourth?
