Well, we have our scenario now. After weeks of wondering which combination of results would meet the committee, we found out last night. It’s not an unexpected combination: Alabama won, Clemson won, Ohio State won, Oklahoma won, Cincinnati won, and Texas A&M still has just the one loss. The biggest surprise was Notre Dame’s impotence against the Tigers, but even with that, there’d been sneaking suspicions such a thing would happen.
This is, aside from perhaps the initial year of the playoffs, the most interesting playoff selection yet for those of us curious about the how and the why. We might learn something rather significant about the committee today.
You see, while we never rolled out our model this year, because indications said it didn’t apply well to this specific season, it is built, as you would imagine, to have a good track record. Its ranking formula is calibrated upon the playoff teams chosen in each of the last six seasons (all of the playoff seasons). Based on that formula, Notre Dame is the clear choice the committee will make for the fourth-ranked team. And since the teams in consideration for the final spot all more or less played full seasons, there’s reason to trust the model.
But do we buy it?
This is why we might learn something today. Because Notre Dame missing the playoff might well point us towards an indication that recency counts. Elsewhere, Texas A&M and Notre Dame both missing it might indicate the committee doesn’t like first-round rematches of regular season thumpings. These would be real learnings: Things that change our perception of how this happens. Things that change how we build future models.
But this isn’t about our model. This is about which team is given that fourth spot. And as we see it, there are four options:
Option A: Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish have the best win in the country. They, and those with whom they’re tied, have won more games than any teams but Alabama and Coastal Carolina. Their lone loss is among the best in the country. And putting them in wouldn’t require an immediate rematch with Clemson.
On the other hand, they were smoked by Clemson, implying they aren’t ready to compete with Alabama, either. There’s a sense that we know what will happen if the Irish play in a semifinal, and the answer is that it won’t be pretty. After all, the loss was just yesterday.
Option B: Texas A&M
Texas A&M’s sole loss came to the number one-ranked team. They beat everyone else they played, and in the SEC, that’s no small feat. Their loss to Alabama was a long time ago. It might not be that indicative of what would happen in a rematch.
On the other hand, Alabama destroyed them when they played, and just as their loss was a long time ago, their best win was a long time ago, coming over Florida more than two months in the past. The Aggies would be a massive underdog against the Tide—the spread would likely be wider than with any of these other options.
Option C: Oklahoma
Oklahoma is the Big 12 champion, having avenged one of their losses and played very well over the back half of their schedule. They have the deepest array of wins out of any of these options, with three over likely top 25 teams. Of all these options, they’d probably be the slimmest underdog against Alabama. The goal is to have the best teams, right?
On the other hand, the Sooners lost twice, and one of those was to unranked Kansas State. And while previous seasons’ results aren’t actively considered by the committee, OU’s only been competitive in one of their four trips to the playoff so far, that coming three years ago, when Baker Mayfield nearly took down Georgia.
Option D: Cincinnati
The Bearcats are the only undefeated option. They’re a conference champion.
On the other hand, Cincinnati’s schedule is the weakest of these teams, and their best win might not have come against a top 25 team when all’s said and done.
***
Overall, our model guesses, based on previous seasons and the rankings so far this year, that the committee will keep those four teams in the order they were in: Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Cincinnati. If you take away the rankings so far from this year and just base it off previous seasons, the order among just these teams would be nearly the same, except with Oklahoma falling behind Cincinnati (Texas A&M would drop to 7th, Cincinnati would be 9th, and the Sooners would be 16th, with Coastal Carolina the new first team out).
We’ll see. We might learn something. But in the most likely scenario, we’re going to get what’s expected: Clemson vs. Ohio State. Alabama vs. Notre Dame. Anything else would be a pretty significant departure from precedent.
