A few thoughts on last night before we get to the Alfonso Rivas-driven option question:
- Alec Mills wasn’t great. Hard contact, walked one too many guys, allowed that home run…disappointing night from one of our favorites. Still has been better than Kyle Hendricks on the year by FIP, xERA, and even fWAR despite throwing many fewer innings than the “ace.” But, as we cannot stress enough, our stance is not that Alec Mills should be the Cubs’ ace. It’s that you can pencil Mills in as the fourth starter and go try to get two guys better than him to slot alongside a hopefully rehabilitated Hendricks (then, yeah, use Alzolay/Steele/Thompson/Abbott/[insert two or three lottery tickets] as the fifth guy, or try to become the Rays, which I say in seriousness—the Cubs should consider trying to become the Rays).
- Scott Effross had a good outing. The two singles were doinkers, the two strikeouts were great to see. He’s at a 3.35 FIP and 2.40 xERA but he’s only thrown 10.1 big-league innings.
- Nice to see Willson Contreras homer again, and man, did he crush that ball. We’ve kind of glossed over how close this has been to a career-worst year for the guy, but he did put some separation between his wRC+ this season (106) and that of 2018 (101) with the dinger, and his .340 xwOBA is promising: he seems to have had at least a little bit of bad luck, and .340 is right around where he’s been since 2019 in that metric.
- How about Trayce Thompson? Second home run in just eleven MLB PA’s this year. We’ll get to why he’s unlikely to hang around, but in the most telling piece of the miniature explosion, it’s been worth 0.3 fWAR already. Home runs are a big deal!
- Frank Schwindel kept hitting, Ian Happ and Rafael Ortega each had two hits, good stuff. Good, good stuff.
Now, the option conversation.
Alfonso Rivas went on the IL yesterday with a finger injury, meaning he’s done for the year. It was disappointing, because Rivas—a former A’s prospect acquired in the Tony Kemp offseason deal prior to 2020—has raked throughout the minors and had gotten just 49 MLB PA’s. He’s not a bigtime prospect—FanGraphs has him just 57th in the Cubs’ system—but there are thoughts he could contribute next year, and it would have been nice to get a better read on that possibility.
We’ve talked before about the Cubs’ upcoming 40-man roster crunch. It’s something each organization faces each offseason, as the 60-Day IL goes away and teams are forced to commit to, at any given time, 40 players, with those who’ve spent a certain amount of time in the minors offered up to the league at large if their team doesn’t commit to them. Whether through free agency, waivers, or the Rule 5 Draft, players not on the 40-man roster are offered to every team around the league before returning to their original team’s minor league system.
At present, the Cubs have 46 players on their 40-man roster and 60-day IL. Of those, four—Matt Duffy, Zach Davies, Robinson Chirinos, Austin Romine—are going to be free agents at year’s end, with Jose Lobaton presumably either also a free agent or a non-tender (I’m working off of Roster Resource for this section). That leaves 41 players, with an additional eleven prospects rated at 35+ FV or better by FanGraphs who are Rule 5 eligible, per Arizona Phil, and four more prospects Arizona Phil indicates the Cubs could theoretically add to the 40-man, based on his projections. In short, we’re at 61 players for 40 spots, brought down to 56 once you eliminate Duffy/Davies/Chirinos/Romine/Lobaton. Notably, of those prospects, the top-ranked one by FanGraphs is Yeison Santana, who comes in at 18th in the Cubs’ system. Santana, though, isn’t included in Phil’s list of likely 40-man adds, suggesting either Phil isn’t as high on him as FanGraphs is, Phil doesn’t think the Cubs are as high on him as FanGraphs is, or infielders aren’t as popular of Rule 5 picks as pitchers (or something else industrial like that). The point is, these Rule 5 eligible guys aren’t top prospects. But, then again, neither are the major leaguers they might replace. The four MLB players still listed among the Cubs’ prospects on FanGraphs (Manuel Rodríguez, Tommy Nance, Michael Rucker, and Rivas) are all ranked 44th or lower, and guys like Trayce Thompson are in a different category altogether.
Which brings us, finally, to options.
My understanding of options is that a player begins his career with three of them, and if in any given year a player is sent down to the minors, whether it’s once or a dozen times, he loses one. If a player is out of options, he has to clear waivers before going to the minor leagues again, even if the team is willing to keep him on the 40-man roster. Options give teams flexibility, which for the purposes of the 40-man-crunch conversation makes players with options more valuable than players without options. This is part of what makes Sergio Alcántara such an obvious presumable non-tender. He’s out of options. It’s also part of what makes the decision so difficult with Rafael Ortega. He’s also out of options. If Ortega stays, he has to stay on the MLB roster for the entire season. If he doesn’t stay and another team claims him off of waivers, the Cubs will have spent a 40-man spot on a guy they ended up losing.
So, then, who has options? I’ll go through pitchers another time, since this is getting long (and there are a lot of pitchers to comb through), but of the 40-man position players who played MLB innings this year, the following have multiple options remaining…
- Contreras
- Nick Madrigal
- Nico Hoerner
- Happ
- David Bote
- Schwindel
- Patrick Wisdom
- Rivas
- P.J. Higgins
- Greg Deichmann
…while the following have none:
- Ortega
- Michael Hermosillo
- Alcántara
- Thompson
- Nick Martini* (I’m not positive on this one—he might have one left but I think they’re all used up)
If it comes to Rivas vs. Ortega then, or Rivas vs. Hermosillo, or Higgins vs. Hermosillo, or any other decision between these two groups on to whom to tender a contract, options will have to be part of the consideration. Hold on to Rivas, you’ve got him for at least two more years. Hold on to Hermosillo, and if he slumps out of the gate and you want to make a change, he’s gone.
What will the Cubs do? I don’t know. You don’t have other MLB-ready position players on the 40-man or on the Rule 5 list, so you could theoretically do something like make Higgins the backup catcher, let Thompson and Alcántara and Martini walk, and then bring in just one more MLB-ready bat and spend the rest of free agency working on pitchers. You could try to trade Ortega for a prospect and/or cash. You could hold onto Ortega and Hermosillo until the last minute, hoping free agent options are available long enough for spring training to begin and the 60-day IL to open back up for someone like Higgins. That’s a conversation for another time, though. We haven’t even talked about the pitchers yet.
***
The Diaspora:
The Padres designated Jake Arrieta for assignment, likely ending his 2021 season. Kyle Schwarber doubled for the Red Sox. Jorge Soler homered for Atlanta. Kris Bryant doubled for the Giants.
Around the Division:
The Cardinals won their tenth straight, pushing them up to 90.4% playoff-likely, per FanGraphs. Good for them. Ugh. The win also pushes back the Brewers’ expected clinch date to this weekend, barring Milwaukee wins over St. Louis both tonight and tomorrow.
As the Reds fade into the dusk, Mike Moustakas has been placed back on the IL with plantar fasciitis, but David Bell has been extended through 2023. They’re in an interesting place as a franchise. We’ll have to do a post on them this offseason.
Up Next:
The season finale against the Twins.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Minnesota
When:
6:40 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Colder again. Temperatures around sixty degrees. Wind roaring in from left. 20 to 25 miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Kyle Hendricks vs. Joe Ryan
The Opponent:
Ryan, a big piece in the Nelson Cruz deal, has a wrist issue that I believe made him miss a start, but just one. He’s made three big-league starts so far, with 14 strikeouts and just two walks over 17 innings, plus two home runs. 3.39 FIP so far.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +110 underdogs, with the Twins at -120 for an implied Chicago win probability of about 45%. The over/under’s at seven and leans towards the under.
Cubs News:
Martini has been brought back up to replace Rivas on the active roster. Dillon Maples cleared waivers and will likely become a minor league free agent this offseason.
Cubs Thoughts:
To be honest, the 40-man thing is more in focus for me right now than tonight’s game, but they do tie together in that you hope everyone raises their value enough to make the crunch a tough choice for Cubs’ decisionmakers.
