There was fire in a food truck, Robby Ashford nailed a ref with the final pass of the night, and Week 3 is underway.
There are only so many ways to say, “Is this team any good?” At the end of the day, though, that’s what we’re asking about all these games. If LSU’s better than Clemson but Clemson’s got problems, what does that say about LSU? If Florida lost to USF but USF’s a top-25 team, why is that different from losing to Missouri? There are things we know and things we don’t. Right now, the latter’s still a larger category than the former.
Ten big games ahead, with questions for each and what’s at stake. As always, we’ll have plenty of help from our model, plus a little from ESPN’s (which are very good at spread predictions).
I don’t know when this will be published, but playoff probabilities and spreads are from Friday afternoon or, in the case of FPI and SP+, ESPN’s weekly publication.
Georgia at Tennessee
Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT
ABC
Playoff Probabilities:
- Georgia: 47% right now, 69% with a win, 28% with a loss
- Tennessee: 42% right now, 61% with a win, 20% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Georgia by 4
- Movelor: Tennessee by 1.3
- FPI: Tennessee by 0.4
- SP+: Tennessee by 1.3
Georgia’s beaten Tennessee eight years in a row. The last time Tennessee beat Georgia in Knoxville, the matchup was Josh Dobbs vs. Sony Michel.
Why do the ratings systems have Tennessee favored?
Georgia underwhelmed last week against Austin Peay. They weren’t in danger, and some of the “closeness” (the final score was 28–6) was turnovers, which aren’t as predictive of future performance as other stats. But Georgia struggled to move the football against an Austin Peay team our model calls third-best in the third-best FCS conference. That’s concerning, and after last year’s sand–in–the–gears season for the Dawgs offensively, it’s fair to question whether their decline might last more than a single fall.
Tennessee’s feeling great about itself behind Joey Aguilar, but the Vols are unproven. The preseason AP Poll was probably low on this team, but the talent level isn’t there the way it’s there for Georgia. The questions, then, are:
- Is Georgia broken again offensively?
- How legitimate is Tennessee’s first string? Good enough to compete with the best in the SEC?
- Is Georgia ready to dominate big games again, and was the Austin Peay game just a rain-delayed obligation a habitually unfocused program made sloppy?
Texas A&M at Notre Dame
Saturday, 7:30 PM EDT
NBC
Playoff Probabilities:
- Notre Dame: 57% right now, 63% with a win, 18% with a loss
- Texas A&M: 6% right now, 17% with a win, 4% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Notre Dame by 6.5
- Movelor: Notre Dame by 16.6
- FPI: Notre Dame by 5.6
- SP+: Notre Dame by 2.8
Movelor, which cares a lot about points and prior seasons, is higher on Notre Dame than other systems, which care more about things like baseline talent level. It’s still hard to know what we saw in Miami. Is Miami a great football team right now? Was it only a couple bad Irish drives, one or two on each side of the ball? Did Notre Dame come back, or did Miami take their foot too far off the gas? We’ve said it a bunch, but Notre Dame lost more identity than it lost production. There’s also a risk that a team who thrived off urgency last year after the loss to NIU could miss some urgency, having learned that no loss can be so bad as to be fatal.
Texas A&M’s into Year 2 under Mike Elko, and early returns are confusing. The Aggie defense had a hard time slowing down UTSA on the ground in Week 1, but Cashius Howell abused Utah State’s offensive line in Week 2. Notre Dame had problems with line play in the Florida humidity. Can Elko’s front seven, typically ferocious, cause similar issues in Indiana? And will the tricky Marcel Reed work enough magic to force panic in the Irish crowd? More questions:
- Did Notre Dame’s line have a bad night against Miami, or does Notre Dame have a bad line?
- How serious is Texas A&M’s offense?
- Could Reed and CJ Carr meet their highest expectations and turn this into a shootout?
Florida at LSU
Saturday, 7:30 PM EDT
ABC
Playoff Probabilities:
- LSU: 32% right now, 40% with a win, 9% with a loss
- Florida: 5% right now, 12% with a win, 2% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: LSU by 7
- Movelor: LSU by 8.4
- FPI: LSU by 2.9
- SP+: LSU by 2.8
We pointed to it above, but there’s broken logic around perceptions of both those teams. LSU’s supposedly “the number three team in the country,” but nobody can seriously call them the third-best. Florida’s supposedly a dumpster fire, but we’re told USF’s “a top-25 team,” which either means that USF is good—in which case Florida should lick its wounds and try again—or that USF is accomplished—which means that Florida is good. What’s the real story with these teams?
LSU’s upside is more limited than normal. It takes more money to get football players to play for Brian Kelly than it did to get them to play for Ed Orgeron, Les Miles, or Nick Saban. LSU stifled Clemson, but Clemson looked mighty flawed, and Clemson looked even mightier flawed the next week when Troy came to South Carolina. Garrett Nussmeier is a Heisman favorite (in a field rendered wide-open when people finally watched Arch Manning play), but he had a hard time completing passes against Louisiana Tech, a team who mercifully for the Tigers doesn’t play offense. There’s a chance that LSU’s ready to be great but understandably—and maybe necessarily—suffered a letdown between Clemson and Florida. There’s a better chance that LSU vs. Clemson was a nine-win team beating a nine-win team. Good, but not what it sounded like at the time.
How about Florida? We aren’t high on them. Movelor thinks they’ll go 6.0–6.5, meaning they’ve got about a 50/50 shot of making a bowl game. But, there’s a lot more that goes into being a good college coach than what goes into being a good NFL coach. Billy Napier might suck at game management, but his team rallied from being completely written off last season and turned 2024 into a moderately respectable year. The schedule’s horrifying against this year. They should lose this game and others. But it’s not like this program hasn’t been here before, and recently. Hard to replicate? Sure. But there’s more precedent suggesting Florida’s tough than there’s precedent suggesting LSU is good. Questions:
- What’s the deal with DJ Lagway? Is he good? Bad? A talented sophomore who faces a ton of great defenses?
- How strong is the anti-Brian Kelly instinct in the discourse? If Florida pulls this off, will we see a backlash equal in proportion to the LSU hype train of the last few weeks? The pro-LSU instinct is fervent. But Brian Kelly haters are numerous and comfortably self-assured.
- Is Blake Baker a game-changer in Baton Rouge or is Clemson closer to Louisiana Tech than they should be?
USF at Miami
Saturday, 4:30 PM EDT
The CW
Playoff Probabilities:
- Miami: 51% right now, 56% with a win, 23% with a loss
- USF: 14% right now, 34% with a win, 11% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Miami by 17.5
- Movelor: Miami by 16.2
- FPI: Miami by 6.0
- SP+: Miami by 14.0
A question we often ask of Movelor early in the season is whether it’s “caught up.” You can ask this about FPI and SP+ as well, and about betting markets. We have more data on Movelor than we have on those other three.
Only one FBS team has outperformed their preseason Movelor expectation by more than USF. The Bulls have blown away expectations. They are at least nine points better than we thought they were, and since that’s close to the maximum Movelor can adjust to a two-game sample, it’s fair to wonder if they’re even better than that. Are they? The mathematical answer is probably. The tradeoff we make when we make Movelor slower to react is that it takes too long to adjust to certain teams but it’s very precise on the ones it’s getting right. Movelor is still finding its level on USF.
But how high is that level?
Miami’s strong in the trenches and plugged a proven capable player into an offensive system that just produced a traditionally Heisman-worthy quarterback. Its receivers were spectacular against a good Notre Dame secondary. Its own secondary made smart reads against a smart Notre Dame offense. The biggest question for Miami this year is going to be focus, with runners-up including defensive consistency and whether Mario Cristobal’s late-game instincts will eventually cost the Canes. Those do apply tomorrow, but it’s easier to focus in September than it is in October. Also, programs with studs on the first string but paper behind them are numerous in the power conferences, and Miami’s one of them. That too should make this a tough time for USF to play Miami. More questions:
- Can USF’s offensive line hold up against Miami’s seemingly vicious defensive front?
- Can USF win the weird stuff again like it did in Gainesville? Can Byrum Brown keep threading the needle between protecting the ball and making big plays?
- Is Miami getting enough credit for what they did over the first three quarters against Notre Dame?
Clemson at Georgia Tech
Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT
ESPN
Playoff probabilities:
- Georgia Tech: 27% right now, 41% with a win, 8% with a loss
- Clemson: 17% right now, 32% with a win, 5% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Clemson by 3
- Movelor: Georgia Tech by 2.3
- FPI: Georgia Tech by 1.5
- SP+: Georgia Tech by 0.6
The ACC’s answer to Tennessee vs. Georgia.
Haynes King is available for Georgia Tech after missing last week’s game against Gardner–Webb. It starts there for the Yellow Jackets, who’ve built a blue-collar identity and then some under Brent Key. Still, Georgia Tech wasn’t a particularly good team last year, and King wasn’t a great quarterback. He’s fun—he’s a bulldozer—and if the game’s a dogfight, he’s the kind of guy you want taking snaps. But there are reasons King didn’t stick in College Station, and many of those have to do with King.
Clemson of course isn’t a perfect parallel to Georgia. They don’t have the talent or the recent results of that program. But high expectations were met with a disappointing day last week after a rain delay. Now they go on the road against a conference rival. For Clemson, the stakes are scarier—the Tigers lost to LSU; Georgia’s still unbeaten—but this is where it starts to count. Can Cade Klubnik be an anchor for a program that needs a solid floor? Is Garrett Riley a problem? More questions:
- How’s Clemson’s culture right now? The talent keeps slipping, but it’s enough to be the class of the ACC. Clemson has been the best ACC program these last four seasons, but they’ve been far from dominant. Any conference loss this year is going to add to that perception.
- Could Georgia Tech contend in this ACC? If Clemson really is abdicating the throne, and if Florida State’s rebuilding fast but still rebuilding, and if Miami’s hard to trust, that does leave some sort of window.
- It came against Gardner–Webb, so grain of salt, but Georgia Tech’s offense played a great game with Aaron Philo under center last week. Haynes King will improve that, right? If he does, this group could be second-best in the league.
Arkansas at Mississippi
Saturday, 7:00 PM EDT
ESPN
Playoff Probabilities:
- Mississippi: 42% right now, 48% with a win, 14% with a loss
- Arkansas: 5% right now, 15% with a win, 3% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Mississippi by 6.5
- Movelor: Mississippi by 13.7
- FPI: Mississippi by 6.5
- SP+: Mississippi by 10.4
We’re getting to the point in the season where just about every SEC game has playoff implications, and as we’ve said before and will say again, this isn’t because of SEC favoritism on the committee. The Big Ten has a stronger top these days. The SEC has a stronger middle. Somewhere in that middle? Mississippi.
Austin Simmons was messy in Lexington, but the fact Mississippi didn’t let that decide the game could say a lot about these guys. Meanwhile, it’s Sam Pittman’s sixth year at Arkansas and we still don’t really know what he is as a head coach. Questions:
- Is Mississippi an SEC contender? If the answer’s yes, we won’t get an answer just yet.
- Are the Razorbacks as capable as they looked these first two games?
- Can Mississippi save themselves some stress, with no clear breaks on the schedule until November?
Vanderbilt at South Carolina
Saturday, 7:45 PM EDT
SEC Network
Playoff Probabilities:
- South Carolina: 16% right now, 20% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Vanderbilt: 2% right now, 5% with a win, 0% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: South Carolina by 3
- Movelor: South Carolina by 9.7
- FPI: South Carolina by 3.8
- SP+: South Carolina by 9.5
There’ve been a lot of times over the years when South Carolina was purportedly about to have its moment. This year’s another. Will they? They’re only favored by a field goal against Vanderbilt at home.
To be fair, uncertainty is high right now, which is to say that the Gamecocks have upside. To also be fair…man, only a field goal? Diego Pavia’s a popular guy. We might have to take a look at that tomorrow. Questions:
- Like Arizona State and Notre Dame, Vanderbilt had a lot of magic last year. Is a letdown coming?
- Are those correct who say we should be talking more about LaNorris Sellers?
- Is this finally the year South Carolina means something?
Ohio at Ohio State
Saturday, 7:00 PM EDT
Peacock
Playoff Probabilities:
- Ohio State: 88% right now, 89% with a win, 59% with a loss
- Ohio: 11% right now, 39% with a win, 10% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Ohio State by 29
- Movelor: Ohio State by 26.9
- FPI: Ohio State by 24.7
- SP+: Ohio State by 31.3
A weird game to include, but Ohio’s one of the biggest conference favorites in the country and we desperately want Timothee Chalamet’s attention.
It’s especially weird to see Ohio getting noticed this year because Tim Albin moved on. Brian Smith’s the new head coach, and he’s a big unknown and the team’s a big unknown but so far they’ve hung with Rutgers and beaten West Virginia, and that’s enough to get this a mention. That plus Rufus vs. Brutus back in the day. Questions:
- Tell us more about Brian Smith.
- Can Ohio State win this convincingly enough to pad stats?
- Will we at least get a moment early where the score comes up on the bottom line and viewers of other games raise their eyebrows?
Texas State at Arizona State
Saturday, 10:30 PM EDT
TNT/HBO Max
Playoff Probabilities:
- Arizona State: 10% right now, 12% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Texas State: 10% right now, 26% with a win, 6% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Arizona State by 17.5
- Movelor: Arizona State by 11.4
- FPI: Arizona State by ~9
- SP+: Arizona State by 11.1
It wasn’t long ago that Arizona State went to San Marcos and we all learned about Cam Skattebo on a Thursday night. Turns out, it was a home-and-home.
ASU’s smarting after their trip to Starkville. Texas State’s 2–0 but doesn’t get much margin for error. Questions:
- Is G.J. Kinne making progress at Texas State, or has he already hit his ceiling?
- Just last year, Kenny Dillingham and ASU recovered impressively from early losses. That was without prior expectations, though. Can they do it with the pressure on?
- Skattebo had value out of the backfield. He also shaped last year’s ASU’s identity. What is this team’s identity?
North Dakota at Montana
Saturday, 3:00 PM EDT
ESPN+
FCS Playoff Probabilities:
- Montana: 61% right now, 81% with a win, 42% with a loss
- North Dakota: 54% right now, 75% with a win, 31% with a loss
Spreads:
- Movelor: North Dakota by 0.4
- SP+: Montana by 11.6
North Dakota impressed against K-State. Montana’s only played one game and it wasn’t against a Division I team. Both these teams are in a boat where they could easily get a bye, could plausibly miss the playoffs, and probably won’t make the FCS National Championship unless something real wacky’s going on. For North Dakota, that’d be a program-changing season. That’s what’s really going on here. The Fighting Hawks have some hope.
It’s fun to watch football in Missoula. Unfortunately, it should be a beautiful day for it.
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