Update: Late last night, reports broke that UNLV and Air Force will stay in the Mountain West in exchange for a one-time bonus which is something like four or five times what they receive in media revenue in a given year. Where does this leave the situation? We would imagine the Pac-12 will be calling another Mountain West school, but we do not know that for sure. Either way, MWC dissolution seems off the table.
Another Update: The expectation is evidently that the seven remaining Mountain West schools will sign an agreement with one another and then look to grab an eighth team. Each school is evidently getting some sort of signing bonus in exchange for staying home. Meanwhile, Texas State is reportedly in contact with a few leagues, but those reports might be coming from Texas State itself, who would be interested in boosting its own reputation by appearing desirable. The Sun Belt is a better football conference than the remaining Mountain West, but perhaps Texas State disagrees? The Pac-7 is a better football conference than the Sun Belt, at least right now, so if the Pac-7 can’t add another Mountain West school, then yes, Texas State would make some sense for both parties.
So UNLV’s in the news.
The Matthew Sluka NIL situation is weird, to say the least, and we don’t know what happened or is happening. For now, all I can offer is an echo of my colleague’s convictions that Sluka plays quarterback as though he’s engaging in guerrilla warfare, and that he is therefore very fun to watch.
Instead, I’m here for a conference realignment update. Monday was a busy, busy day.
The Pac-12 and Mountain West battled to a draw on Monday in the “back channels” through which realignment decisions are made. The Pac-12 came out of the day with seven teams. The Mountain West came out with seven teams. Each needs eight to be a recognized FBS conference. Something will give, quite possibly soon. As is evidently the norm this week, what happens depends on what UNLV decides to do.
How we got here…
One note: Everything I refer to as a report or as speculation is something I’ve seen reported or speculated in multiple places. I’m not citing the journalists and analysts generating these reports and speculations, because the reports and speculations are widespread. If you believe I’ve improperly used your original report or original speculation and you would like credit, please let me know and I will be sure to credit you.
Memphis Turned the Pac-12 Down
Over the week and a half following the Pac-12’s announced revival, attention turned to Memphis, Tulane, and USF as potential additional members, with UTSA also involved in some reports. The New Pac-12 courted the schools they believe are the AAC’s most powerful brands. On Monday, those brands universally told them no.
Reporting indicates Memphis made this decision, and that the others followed. Memphis believed it too great a financial sacrifice to buy their way out of the AAC. Memphis was concerned about a reduction in TV revenue following the move. Given how fervently Memphis has worked to join a power conference over the last fifteen years, I think a takeaway we can make here is that Memphis doesn’t believe the New Pac-12 will be viewed as a power conference. Memphis wants power conference membership like the Cookie Monster wants cookies. Memphis would chug napalm if the chugging earned it a Big 12 or ACC invite. Whether Memphis is right or wrong about the New Pac-12, Memphis does not respect the New Pac-12.
There Was a Weird Gonzaga Leak
Almost immediately after Memphis announced it was staying in the AAC, Brett McMurphy reported Gonzaga was joining the Pac-12. Gonzaga would not be adding football, but it would receive a full revenue share nonetheless. This report was quickly, widely, and emphatically refuted, which is unusual for McMurphy reports.
My own speculation here is that a Pac-12 source led McMurphy astray, possibly forgetting (or not recognizing) their absence of leverage against the Zags. I think someone in the Pac-12 might have thought that by pointing to Gonzaga, they could flip the momentum after the sting of being rejected by the AAC quartet. I think they were maybe trying to get UNLV and/or Air Force to jump, if not Gonzaga themselves.
That said, McMurphy continues to maintain his belief that Gonzaga is going to end up a Pac-12 member. I don’t know exactly what to make of that, but we’ll touch on it more below.
The Mountain West Circled the Wagons
Right around the time the AAC quartet announced its continued commitment to the AAC, reports emerged that the Mountain West was offering its bigger-branded schools (UNLV and Air Force, primarily) one-time payouts in exchange for a recommitment to the MWC. These proposed payouts were reported in some places as larger than one year of TV revenue. Where was the money coming from? The exit fees from departing MWC members, plus the poaching fee owed by the Pac-12.
Shortly after Memphis, Tulane, USF, and UTSA said no, reports emerged that UNLV, Air Force, and even San Jose State were reaffirming their commitments to the Mountain West. We’ve since learned that MWC commissioner Gloria Nevarez pushed schools to formally sign an agreement to stick together.
From the sounds of it, the schools were set to sign the agreement. The Mountain West was set to hold its eight teams and cut off the Pac-12’s primary hunting ground. We began to ponder whether the Pac-12 would be smart enough to call South Dakota State and North Dakota State rather than go chasing some Conference USA filler school or UConn. But then…
Utah State Joined the Pac-12
Utah State had long been rumored as the New Pac-12’s third preferred option among the remaining Mountain West schools. Behind UNLV and Air Force, reports held, the New Pac-12 would like Utah State. Why? With Logan a full hour and a half from Salt Lake City, I’m not sure it was about media market. With Utah State football being Utah State football, I don’t think it was about college football. My guess is that it either had to do with 1) an alignment of institutional philosophy between Utah State and the New Pac-12, 2) demographics favoring continued rapid growth in Utahn sports heft, and 3) Utah State consistently producing good basketball teams. This third piece is important if the Pac-12 is aggressively pursuing Gonzaga.
Regardless of why the New Pac-12 wanted them, Utah State wanted the New Pac-12, accepting its invitation and bringing the Pac-6 to Pac-7 status, one school shy of formal existence. Simultaneously, Utah State brought the Mountain West down to seven remaining football programs itself. Now, both leagues needed at least one more school.
Then, UNLV backed out of its recommitment.
The reports on this state that UNLV was content to stay in the Mountain West with its existing eight football teams—themselves, Nevada, San Jose State, Utah State, Air Force, New Mexico, Wyoming, and Hawaii—but that it wasn’t so sure about commitment if not all eight of those schools were there. In short: If the Mountain West needed to expand, UNLV wanted to reconsider the New Pac-12, or possibly even the AAC. So, they’re reconsidering. Air Force—who has reportedly been considered by the AAC—is presumably reconsidering as well. Has the AAC approached UNLV, or vice versa? I don’t know. I haven’t seen much on that beyond some hints of speculation.
Where Does This Leave Us?
To recap, school by school:
- Oregon State: New Pac-12
- Washington State: New Pac-12
- Boise State: New Pac-12
- San Diego State: New Pac-12
- Colorado State: New Pac-12
- Fresno State: New Pac-12
- Utah State: New Pac-12
- All existing AAC members: AAC
- Gonzaga: Still WCC, but possibly under pursuit from Pac-12 (and maybe others)
- Air Force: Still Mountain West, but under pursuit from Pac-12 and AAC
- UNLV: Still Mountain West, but under pursuit from Pac-12 and possibly AAC
- San Jose State, New Mexico, Hawaii, Nevada, and Wyoming: Still Mountain West, but potentially options for other leagues
To clarify those last four bullets and offer a few opinions:
Gonzaga
Gonzaga has a good situation in the WCC. It gets to run the league. Joining the New Pac-12 would improve the level of competition Gonzaga faces in men’s basketball, but it wouldn’t put Gonzaga into a full-on power conference. Gonzaga would still exist in a mid-major world, barring a real breakthrough by the New Pac-12.
Very little would surprise me from the Zags, but one possibility I wouldn’t sleep on is Gonzaga opting to stay in the WCC because the jump to the New Pac-12 isn’t big enough to justify departure, and maybe also because they believe the Big 12 partnership will ultimately come. Brett Yormark saw the McMurphy report. Did he call Gonzaga and tell them to hold tight—that their chariot would one day come?
One thing I would (unfortunately) sleep on is Gonzaga adding a football program. It would be a great solution for the Pac-12 and might go very well, given the strength of Gonzaga’s athletic department, but I have yet to see any hint of an indication that Gonzaga might be interested in this.
Air Force
Air Force has good options available. The worst of those, though, is probably staying in the declining Mountain West. The AAC is stable and strong and might want Air Force. The New Pac-12 is stronger than the current Mountain West. Air Force should do what works for Air Force, and given it doesn’t hold a particular interest in basketball, that’s probably joining the AAC, aligning themselves with Army and Navy and probably making more money. If they can only do that in football, as is the case with Army and Navy, the WCC is well-known to be interested in adding them in other sports. An AAC/WCC combo would be better than what will be left of the Mountain West.
UNLV
UNLV probably has good options available. They’re risking someone (Air Force, most likely) jumping them in line, but they seem to be a desirable option for the New Pac-12. It would be pretty dumb of UNLV to stay in the Mountain West, but maybe they really don’t like the schools in the New Pac-12. The simplest way for this to work out is for UNLV to join the New Pac-12, getting it to eight teams, and for Air Force to leave for the AAC, and for the Mountain West to either recruit the best FCS programs or the best Conference USA programs they can get. That said…
The Remnants of the Mountain West
It would reportedly take nine schools voting to dissolve the Mountain West for the Mountain West to, in fact, dissolve. I haven’t seen clarity on this, but I would guess that Hawaii can’t be one of the nine schools, given it’s a football-only member. Why are we talking about dissolving the Mountain West? Because if the New Pac-12 can get the Mountain West to dissolve itself, it won’t have to pay the poaching fee and its former MWC members won’t have to pay the exit fee. It might behoove the New Pac-12 to not only add UNLV, but to support Air Force in an AAC move, and to then invite two more former Mountain West schools, taking the competitive hit in exchange for upwards of a hundred million dollars.
How would this work, in effect? Effectively, what would happen is that eight Mountain West schools would kick out Hawaii and two others, add Washington State and Oregon State, climb into the Pac-10’s uninhabited shell, and send Air Force off to the AAC with best wishes.
If this happens—and at this point, I’d personally guess this is the likeliest outcome—here’s the case for and against each of San Jose State, Nevada, Wyoming, and New Mexico:
- San Jose State: It’s got the best football team of the four right now and is located in the Bay Area. However, I believe it has the smallest current following.
- Nevada: It’s aligned with UNLV logistically through the University of Nevada system, and the state might really dislike it if Nevada is relegated to Conference USA. Nevada’s often had good basketball, which could help in the Pac-12’s courtship of Gonzaga. However, it’s in a small market, it doesn’t have all that large of a following, and it isn’t very good.
- Wyoming: It’s had good basketball recently and it’s a similar school to much of the New Pac-12. However, it’s again in a small market, it again doesn’t have all that large a following (comparable to Nevada’s, I believe), and it isn’t very good at football right now.
- New Mexico: It has a committed basketball following. However, Albuquerque isn’t a thriving market, and the football program’s been in rough shape.
As for Hawaii.
A lot of people are pointing out Hawaii’s unique TV value, capable of providing an extra game per season because of the NCAA’s Hawaii-specific travel expense rule and able to offer a TV time slot in the middle of the night. Hawaii also wouldn’t have to pay the same kind of exit fee as full MWC members, though I don’t know the specifics there. Still, there’s a reason Hawaii’s not a full MWC member, and that reason is that their athletic department is not at a Group of Five level across the board. Hawaii is a low-major dabbling in mid-majordom. It could be a good option for the New Pac-12 if the other six MWC schools decide to stick together, but I struggle to see it making sense as an addition in any other scenario.
My guess, given all of this, would be that UNLV joins the better league, which is the New Pac-12 unless the AAC wants them. Maybe San Jose State or another of the remaining MWC schools tries to jump them in line, but it’s hard to see the New Pac-12 not getting one more MWC school to defect, thereby reaching the eight-school minimum. What I really don’t know is whether the New Pac-12 will stop at UNLV, or whether it’ll pursue a scorched earth outcome. The question the New Pac-12 has to answer is whether it’s worth it to dilute itself with two underwhelming athletic departments in exchange for major short-term financial savings. They’re trying to get some of those financial savings by suing the MWC over the poaching fee, but they would save more if the MWC simply ceased to exist.
What would happen to Hawaii, Wyoming, and New Mexico (or Hawaii, Nevada, and San Jose State, or another iteration) if nine of the other Mountain West schools do vote to dissolve the league? Conference USA would make for a natural home. The league will soon span from FIU in its southeastern corner to Delaware in its northeastern corner, with the UTEP/NMSU combination marking the current western flank. As the current “miscellaneous” league in the FBS, New Mexico and Wyoming would elevate its status, and Hawaii—if not interested in independence—would help.
If the Mountain West doesn’t disappear and does dip into the FCS (rather than raiding Conference USA, maybe for NMSU, UTEP, and Sam Houston), I really don’t know whether South Dakota State and North Dakota State would be interested. I similarly don’t know that Montana, Montana State, and Idaho would want to leave the good thing they have going. In addition to Sacramento State, who has some powerbrokers pushing for an FBS jump, Incarnate Word might be one to watch. It’s a strong FCS football program right now, and it’s in the region of the country which currently produces the most new FBS programs. There are any number of schools who might be interested in the jump, ranging from Southern Illinois to Cal Poly, but I’m not sure the FCS’s real powers are going to make the leap for a shattered Mountain West or the current edition of Conference USA. (Conference USA is gaining Missouri State and Delaware next year, which would help it stay above the eight-team threshold if the MWC did raid it.)
Could the Mountain West and New Pac-12 still merge? Perhaps. There’s a lot of bad blood there, but if neither conference can get to eight teams, they could always strike a deal. I wouldn’t rule it out.
We’re really getting into guesswork here. But this is the chain reaction we’re looking at. Soon, UNLV or Air Force will make a decision, or someone else will jump them in line. Then, it’ll be time to see whether the Pac-12 nukes the MWC or not, and whether the MWC can do enough to prevent a nuking. It’s a mess, of course, and someone is going to get hung out to dry. That’s the way of the world. Conference realignment might be encouraged by TV networks, but it’s driven by the schools. Schools want more prestige. They can get it by changing conferences, or by persuading others to join their own conference. This causes realignment, which is almost always painful for someone.
What could have happened here to avoid a sad outcome? The Mountain West could have pushed for a full merger with Washington State and Oregon State when it had the chance. But it’s possible there wasn’t support for that because the bigger MWC brands wanted to break the league apart. Boise State isn’t Memphis, but it too has been seeking power conference status for a long, long time, and San Diego State very publicly pursued an MWC exit less than a year and a half ago. I don’t know that WSU and OSU were the masterminds here.
