The national championship’s tonight, and as one would expect, talent is everywhere. On Pro Football Focus’s NFL Draft Big Board, nine of the top 32 players—those who are first-round pick quality, independent of where team positional need will dictate their actual draft slot—play for Alabama or Ohio State.
It’s not surprising that this many first-round talents are on the field. They’ve been expected to be on this field. Over the last five years of recruiting, through which the large majority of tonight’s players joined their respective rosters, Alabama’s recruiting classes have ranked 1st, 1st, 5th, 1st, and 2nd (we’re using the 247 Sports rankings). Ohio State’s have ranked 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 14th, and 5th. Nick Saban and Ryan Day (and Urban Meyer before Day) have assembled loaded rosters—rosters that are right now bearing fruit.
But they aren’t the only teams with this kind of talent. Averaging the last five years’ rankings, Ohio State’s actually been out-recruited over the time leading up to this game.
| Team | Five-Year Average |
| Alabama | 2 |
| Georgia | 2.6 |
| Ohio State | 5.4 |
| LSU | 6.6 |
| Texas | 9.2 |
At first glance, it’s hard to call Kirby Smart’s tenure at Georgia a failure. Since he took over prior to the 2016 season, the Dawgs have perpetually been in the top ten. They’ve won a Sugar Bowl. They’ve won a Peach Bowl. They’ve lost a Sugar Bowl. They’ve come within overtime of winning a national championship. Hell, they’ve clearly brought a lot of talent in the door.
And yet looking at these numbers, it’s striking that Smart hasn’t gotten more out of these rosters. No, he’s not alone in this phenomenon—you see Texas there rounding out the top five—but despite having Alabama-level talent, Smart hasn’t generated something that closely approaches Alabama-level results. And it hasn’t just been Alabama (and last year’s LSU team) standing in his way:
- In November of 2020, Georgia lost by two scores to a Florida team that finished with four losses (only one of which was to Alabama).
- In October of 2019, Georgia lost at home by a field goal to a South Carolina that lost eight times.
- In October of 2018, Georgia lost by three scores in Baton Rouge to what became a three-loss LSU team (again, just one of those to Bama).
- In 2017—the near-national championship year—Georgia went to Auburn and lost 40-17. Auburn, like Florida this year, finished that season with four losses: some respectable (a rematch with Georgia), some not (LSU, in the year LSU lost to Troy).
In their four years of contention, Georgia has been run off the field at least once each season by a good-not-great team, with the exception being last year, where the bucking of the trend was accompanied by the worst overall loss of this period.
It’s possible Smart will figure it out. Again, it’s hard to call his tenure a failure—only a handful of teams can claim more success over the last four years than Georgia. But from purely a talent standpoint, it seems Alabama and Georgia are on equal footing. Whereas on the field, they’re not.
