Josh Heupel is the new coach at Tennessee. He inherits a bit of a mess, but that’s what he gets paid to attempt to clean up.
We talked last week about Tennessee’s potential ceilings, and I wouldn’t say Heupel immediately changes any of that. Heupel’s probably a bit better than the median potential Tennessee hire (high upside, strong track record even if it’s neither dominant nor expansive). He could get Kirby Smart results. He could get Gus Malzahn results. He could get Jeremy Pruitt results.
Where UCF goes is another good question, though. The Knights had a glorious two years spanning Scott Frost’s last in town and Heupel’s first at the helm, but the AAC isn’t an easy conference to perennially dominate. For one thing, it’s often the first place Power Five programs look when they’re seeking a new head coach, meaning sustained success often forces transition. For another, it’s often got a couple top 25 teams, both in terms of actual quality and ranking.
Case in point: Over the last six years, since Navy joined the AAC, only Memphis has had a winning record every season.
| Team\Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2019-20 Avg. | Team |
| Cincinnati | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6.5 | Cincinnati |
| Memphis | 5 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 6.0 | Memphis |
| UCF | 0 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 5.5 | UCF |
| Navy | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 5.0 | Navy |
| SMU | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5.0 | SMU |
| Tulsa | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4.0 | Tulsa |
| Temple | 7 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 3.0 | Temple |
| Tulane | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3.0 | Tulane |
| Houston | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2.5 | Houston |
| East Carolina | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2.0 | East Carolina |
| USF | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | USF |
| UConn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | – | 0.0 | UConn |
Over the last two years, it’s been Cincinnati at the top of the ledger, with Memphis, UCF, Navy, SMU, and Tulsa each looking the part of a contender at some point. It’s been a few seasons now since Houston’s done much, but that program still gets some hype. Temple showed it could be good back when Matt Rhule was there. USF has shown it can be good multiple times in its history.
Within the AAC, then, you’ve got nine teams definitely capable of contending. And would it really shock if we were to look up in three years and find that Tulane or East Carolina figured it out? Group of Five football’s often a rollercoaster. In the AAC, it’s a rollercoaster with some resources.
For the moment, it does appear Cincinnati’s poised to pull away from the pack for a year or two. Here are the recruiting rankings for the league for the years since Navy’s entrance, per 247 Sports:
| Team\Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2017-21 Avg. | Team |
| Cincinnati | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | Cincinnati |
| Memphis | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | Memphis |
| UCF | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | UCF |
| SMU | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5.2 | SMU |
| Houston | 7 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 5.2 | Houston |
| USF | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 5.6 | USF |
| Tulane | 8 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 6.2 | Tulane |
| East Carolina | 9 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 7.2 | East Carolina |
| Temple | 5 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8.8 | Temple |
| Tulsa | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 9.8 | Tulsa |
| Navy | 11 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10.4 | Navy |
Now, recruiting rankings don’t tell the whole story. Transfers happen (and it’s possible they happen at a higher rate in the AAC than in the Power Five, with all the coaching turnover, but I’d need to do a dig to find out if that’s true). Navy happens. Tulsa, last year, happened.
But they’re useful. They tell us things. And they tell us that this coming year, Cincinnati should be expected to have the most talented roster in the conference, and Memphis, though a distant second, is likely to have the second-most talented. All while SMU rises.
UCF should still have talent next year, but it might be dwindling. The recruiting numbers have been poorer in conference context the last two seasons. I don’t know the transfer rules chapter and verse, but my impression is UCF could lose some transfers over the next few weeks or months, including even Dillon Gabriel.
But even if it does dwindle, the school’s shown it can compete. And if you’re capable of competing, and you’re in the AAC, contention’s always potentially a few years away.
