The Cubs lost, 14-5, and it wasn’t as close as that score makes it look. Guys who had good nights: Matt Duffy had two softly-hit singles, Frank Schwindel doubled and singled, Jason Heyward and Ian Happ both doubled, David Bote hit the ball about 105 mph three times but only got one single out of it because it was all on the ground. Justin Steele was decent: four innings, two runs, five strikeouts, three walks, one dinger. It was good to see the strikeouts up (the Cubs don’t need Steele to eat innings right now while he’s stretching out, and while 82 pitches is a lot for four innings it’s not disastrous), you don’t want to see that many walks, the home run was absolutely demolished but that’ll happen.
Steele will likely next start either on Sunday or Monday, depending on whether the Cubs stick with the six-man rotation or switch to a five-man setup due to losing Adbert Alzolay to the IL and cutting Jake Arrieta (I still can’t get over that the Padres picked him up, very curious what they think they can do with him). The answer to that question—when Steele next starts—has a lot to do with the answer to our next question, which is…
When will this losing streak end?
You may have heard the numbers. The streak’s at twelve, the club record’s fourteen, the Cubs are a freight train of losing power at this moment. The roster, as we said post-trade deadline, is among the three worst in baseball on paper, and it’s looking the part, especially on the mound, where the month of August has seen Cubs pitchers post a 6.11 FIP, an 8.14 ERA, and -1.2 fWAR, worst in baseball. Times are dire, but eventually, the streak has to end. So let’s take a look ahead.
The Cubs have kind of pivoted to a five-man rotation already, with Kyle Hendricks moving up a day to start on normal rest tonight. They might stick with that (especially since protecting Alzolay is already happening, with him on the IL), but should they go back to the six-man rotation, the next six games line up as follows (the Royals and Rockies starters are unannounced, I’m using Roster Resource for those):
Today: at Cincinnati, Kyle Hendricks vs. Vladimir Gutierrez
Tomorrow: at Cincinnati, TBD vs. Tyler Mahle
Friday: vs. Kansas City, TBD vs. Brad Keller
Saturday: vs. Kansas City, Zach Davies vs. Kris Bubic
Sunday: vs. Kansas City, Alec Mills vs. Carlos Hernández
Monday: vs. Colorado, Justin Steele vs. Germán Márquez
Hendricks, of course, could well give the Cubs a chance to win tonight. He has that capability. Should the Cubs go to a five-man crew, Mills could give the Cubs a good chance against Bubic, whose xERA and FIP both sit north of 6.00 while his innings have passed 85. The Cubs might actually be favored in that matchup. Brad Keller’s struggled, but xERA and FIP are dramatically split on him, and for as well as Zach Davies pitched in Miami, he’s still allowed six home runs over his last three starts, and fourteen earned runs over twelve innings in that stretch (seventeen runs in total). Keegan Thompson faced thirteen batters just two days ago (striking out seven and retiring all thirteen), so he could fill Friday’s TBD slot but likely won’t fill tomorrow’s. He might give the Cubs a chance against Keller. Cory Abbott last pitched six days ago, but he might pitch tonight, which would nix him as a possible starter tomorrow. The Cubs’ 40-man roster is full, so bringing up another starter would require DFA-ing someone, and while there are plenty of options (Dan Winkler’s contract is set to expire anyway), it’s possible the Cubs will just bite the bullet and suffer through bullpen games these next two times out, or do a bullpen game tomorrow and move Davies, Mills, and Steele each up a day. If I had to guess, I’d guess the Cubs don’t want to force a bullpen game tomorrow and will give Abbott his shot, then move Davies, Mills, and Steele each up a day and go back to a five-man rotation with added rest from days off on Thursday, next Thursday, and the following Monday. After that, it’s hard to prognosticate, but Thompson will probably be ready and Alzolay might be close to returning, with Joe Biagini possibly also coming up from AAA to eat some innings (Biagini’s 31 and is out of minor league options after pitching in parts of five major league seasons for Toronto and Houston—he’s on a minor league deal this year).
Given all that, the most probable answers for the losing streak to end are tonight and Saturday, though Friday’s also a reasonable possibility. It’s very hard to see the Cubs beating a playoff-hopeful Reds team with Tyler Mahle on the mound tomorrow. He’s too competent for that. There’ll be a chance, of course, but it might be south of 35%.
***
Draft Pick Watch:
I don’t know what to title this section, because I don’t like the word “tank” in baseball. That said, it’s kind of a tank, and maybe I should embrace that word because getting rid of the draft would be a wonderful humanitarian development. I don’t know. There’s a parallel incentive virtually everywhere, which makes it hard to interpret. Is Willson Contreras on the IL so the Cubs lose or so that he can get some much-needed rest? It’s both. I must accept that it’s both.
Anyway, the Cubs are still eighth in the draft order, but they’re now just half a game off the Nationals, who have the fifth pick, with the Marlins and Royals wedged between, even in the standings but currently holding poorer win percentages. The Cubs do lead those four teams in the loss column, which is to say they have the most losses.
The Diaspora:
Anthony Rizzo is back at Yankee Stadium today. The hope is that he’ll be able to return to the lineup later this week—possibly as early as tomorrow? I didn’t fact check that. Craig Kimbrel struck out three in a scoreless inning for the White Sox last night. Kris Bryant homered twice for the Giants as they beat the Mets.
Around the Division:
The Reds are now just a game and a half back of the Padres, with the Cardinals moving within four as they sat idle and the Pads lost.
Up Next:
Game 2. How is it only Game 2.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Cincinnati
When:
6:10 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Cincinnati
Weather:
Temperature around eighty degrees, wind blowing in at five or ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Kyle Hendricks vs. Vladimir Gutierrez
The Opponent:
Gutierrez has a 5.20 FIP but only a 4.45 xERA, and he’s gone four starts now without allowing more than two runs, throwing more than 25 innings combined in those outings. He’s solid, but reasonable expectations are still rather low.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +155 underdogs, with the Reds at -170 for an implied win probability of about 37%. The over/under’s at 9½ and leans towards the under.
Cubs News:
Nothing at the moment.
Cubs Thoughts:
It would feel very good to see Kyle Hendricks put together a good outing. I don’t think the milieu is worried enough about Kyle Hendricks.
