Brennen Davis, holy shit.
The top prospect in the Cubs system made his AAA debut last night, promptly homering in his first two trips to the plate. He didn’t reach base after that (BUST!) so his wRC+ for Iowa is only 407, but not a bad entry to the final step before the majors.
Which brings us to our titular question.
It’s important to distinguish that Davis is not the vanguard of the next Cubs core. That’s Nick Madrigal, whom FanGraphs had as one of their fifty most valuable franchise assets by trade value this summer (league-wide, to be clear) and who will be under club control through 2026 if the current arbitration system holds under the new CBA. But Davis…Davis isn’t too far off.
A consensus top-25 prospect, Davis has roared through the minors this year, raking over eight games at high-A before posting a 135 wRC+ over half a season’s worth of plate appearances at AA on his way to this late-season promotion to Des Moines. He’d been sensational in 2018 and 2019, with a 160 wRC+ over 204 PA’s in A-ball in ’19, and he doesn’t appear to have missed a step while missing 2020 due to the pandemic. The Basha High School (Chandler, AZ) product isn’t yet 22, and he’s potentially knocking on the big-league door.
There are basically four scenarios for when Davis will join the major league club. The least likely is that he’ll break camp with the Cubs next spring. He’ll have hardly played a week of AAA ball at that point, and with the Cubs likely contention-curious at best, there will be little incentive to rush (especially if they’re still trying out optionless Rafael Ortega and Michael Hermosillo in the outfield, or even Greg Deichmann, who has options but also eats up a 40-man spot). The most unsettling is that it will come later than the beginning of 2023, or not at all. This, unfortunately, is always a possibility. But so are meteors crushing us all, so for the moment, let’s not dwell on it. The two most likely are mid-to-late 2022 and early 2023. Here’s what could make it the former rather than the latter:
Davis’s Performance
If Davis obliterates AAA pitching, there isn’t going to be much incentive to not bring him up to the big-league club next July or August. Service time manipulation seems rather likely to get the axe in the CBA renegotiations, and even if it doesn’t, it’s only so valuable against the developmental advantages of getting Davis ready before attempted contention in ’23.
The Cubs’ Playoff Hopes
If Davis is playing well and the Cubs are within playoff reach and there’s a need in the outfield, then again, service time manipulation isn’t going to be worth much (if it’s even an option). Playoff revenue can make a pretty big difference itself.
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Overall, then, it’s kind of a short answer: If all goes well, Davis will debut either late next summer or early in 2023. And in the grand scheme of the Cubs’ history, it probably won’t make too big a difference which one. (Though it might!)
Other highlights from last night:
- Patrick Wisdom tied Kris Bryant’s franchise rookie home run record, clubbing his 26th. It’s his first all month, and since hitting those four home runs in two days against the White Sox he’s managed just a 44 wRC+ over 54 PA’s. Still at 122 on the season, though.
- Alfonso Rivas also homered, hitting his first as a big-leaguer in his 31st MLB plate appearance. He’s at a 115 wRC+, and given his youth, his positional flexibility, and his minor league options, he seems a fairly good contender to be kept around this offseason no matter the severity of the crunch.
- Scott Effross was splendid in relief. He’s only thrown eight and a third innings, but he’s struck out twelve and walked none while allowing just one home run. 2.56 FIP. 1.87 xERA. Great stuff from Kyle Schwarber’s old batterymate at Indiana.
- Rowan Wick was excellent again.
- Frank Schwindel hit the ball 106 mph or harder three times.
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The Diaspora:
I accidentally left this out yesterday, but the big news from Monday was Yu Darvish struggling against the Giants, allowing four home runs in four innings of work while walking three and striking out just three. Last night, it was Jake Arrieta out there exiting in the fourth after allowing three earned runs. Jake Marisnick did double in that game, as did Kris Bryant.
Kyle Schwarber hit a bases-clearing pinch-hit double to give the Red Sox the lead last night in Seattle. Javy Báez homered in the ninth to tie things up for the Mets.
Around the Division:
The Cardinals ended up winning that Mets game, and with the Reds losing that was enough to put St. Louis (!!) in possession of the National League’s final playoff spot, half a game up on Cincinnati, one game up on San Diego, and one loss ahead of each.
Ryan Braun retired yesterday, and urine collectors everywhere can breathe a sigh of relief.
Up Next:
Game 2
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Philadelphia
When:
6:05 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Citizens Bank Park
Weather:
Storms could move in towards the end of the evening, with temperatures in the eighties before that and winds blowing out at about ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Alec Mills vs. Ranger Suárez
The Opponent:
Suárez might be the best franchise strategy story of the year. A reliever before the trade deadline who’d worked multiple innings here and there but only twice in July, the lefty was thrust into the rotation on August 2nd with the Phillies in need of starting pitching. He hasn’t disappointed. 1.67 ERA now over eight starts. 2.61 FIP. And on the season he’s got a 2.97 FIP to go with a 2.82 xERA. Sneakily one of the toughest guys to hit in the game right now.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +170 underdogs, with the Phillies at -210 for an implied Chicago win probability of about 35%. The over/under’s at nine.
Cubs News:
Jason Heyward’s concussion symptoms are reportedly rough, with nausea among them. He’s on the IL now and Trayce Thompson has been added to the active roster. Thompson is 30, is a former White Sox second-round pick, has a 79 career wRC+, and hadn’t appeared in a major league game since 2018 prior to last night.
Hopefully Heyward’s ok. Sucks that it came around Roberto Clemente Day, too, when he’s getting well-deserved recognition for the academy being built on the West Side.
Cubs Thoughts:
It’s too bad the 60-day IL isn’t year-round, because again, we are likely to say some sad goodbyes this offseason (Hermosillo and Ortega are near the top of the list as possibilities for those). Here’s hoping decisions are made easy, with guys like Effross continuing to deal and guys like Wisdom/Schwindel/Ortega/Rivas continuing to rake. It’ll be interesting.
In the meantime, I’m going to enjoy another Alec Mills start. This guy’s the best.
