The Cubs won a series yesterday, did it against a playoff contender, did it in a game Adrian Sampson started, and did it cleanly. It was fun. It felt good. It had been a while.
The star of the game, aside from Sampson, who notched the largest WPA by avoiding walking anybody and managing two strikeouts in his four innings of work—a serviceable if unlikely-to-be-scoreless-again performance—was Michael Hermosillo. So let’s talk about Michael Hermosillo.
Hermosillo, as you’ve likely heard, is from Ottawa, Illinois, a wonderful town on the Illinois River where the first Lincoln-Douglas debate was held (there’s a great set of statues in a fountain downtown commemorating it). He went to Ottawa Township High, was a two-sport athlete, and passed up playing football at the University of Illinois (great choice) to sign on with the Angels at the age of eighteen. He was a 28th-round pick, meaning he wouldn’t have even been drafted in the new system.
Hermosillo didn’t do much in his nineteen and twenty-year-old seasons, but upon turning 21, he broke out, hitting well above-average over his next two years in the minors. He peaked on FanGraphs as a 40 FV prospect back around the time he debuted, in 2018, but he never got hot in a few MLB stints with Anaheim, and the latest projection on him from FanGraphs has him down to a 35+ guy whose ceiling is likely to be a regular component of a major league bench.
This might be accurate. But there’s hope it won’t be, especially since over 186 plate appearances at AAA, Hermosillo has the best wRC+ in the International League (Triple-A East, formally—and that’s among hitters with 180 or more PA’s). He’s only 26. As FanGraphs noted, his pedigree includes “many late-bloomer traits (two sports in high school, Midwest background, blocked by Angels outfield group).” His strongest asset is his speed, and he has some solid power (as he showed yesterday), but there are doubts about the power being enough to keep him a consistent producer at the major league level.
One thing about ceilings is that they’re never 100%. If you asked those prospect projectors to write about 100% ceilings, they’d have to say ridiculous things. The career bench outfielder thing is a reasonable ceiling. Every now and then, the reasonable ceiling is exceeded.
That said, it’s just been one game, and it’s just been one home run, and we’re probably a bit spoiled by Patrick Wisdom, Frank Schwindel, and Rafael Ortega, all of whom continue to rake for the Cubs as they take on more playing time in the wake of the selloff. So stay tuned, but be reasonable.
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Draft Pick Watch:
Still eighth in the lineup, percentage points off of the Royals, half a game off of the Nationals, one game ahead (in the draft order) of the Twins, two games ahead (in the draft order) of the Rockies, two games behind (in the draft order) the Marlins.
The Diaspora:
Anthony Rizzo returned from the IL and hit a big two-run single for the Yankees as they swept the Red Sox and held their gap with the Rays. Jake Arrieta was hit around by the Rockies and left the game with a hamstring issue of some sort.
Around the Division:
I don’t know that we commented on Jack Flaherty’s return after it happened, but he struck out five over six scoreless innings in Kansas City on Friday and followed it up with eight strikeouts and one walk over six innings of two-run work last night. The Brewers did beat the Cardinals in the end, but Flaherty’s back, keeping things at least somewhat intriguing for the wild card-hopeful Cardinals. Both they and the Reds held ground with the Padres in that race (see: Arrieta, Jake), sitting four and one and a half games back, respectively.
Up Next:
A day off today, then three with the Royals this weekend at Wrigley.
One Last Thought:
One more thing I’ll note, with regard to Hermosillo, Schwindel, Wisdom, and Ortega: If these guys can be reliable bench guys next year, a year in which the Cubs are most likely hoping to improve upon the current roster but not build an immediate contender through free agency, it lessens the number of competent bats the front office needs to add, either opening up more money for individual hitters (i.e., we could get two great bats instead of four solid ones) or opening it up for some action in the starting pitching market. We’ve listed similar lists before, and recently, but here’s a potential Opening Day roster for the position player portion of the 2022 Cubs:
C: Willson Contreras
1B: Frank Schwindel
2B: Nick Madrigal
SS: Nico Hoerner
3B: Patrick Wisdom
LF: (free agent)
CF: Ian Happ
RF: Jason Heyward
DH: (free agent)
Bench (C): (free agent)
Bench (OF): Rafael Ortega
Bench (OF): Michael Hermosillo
Bench (IF): David Bote
Maybe the Cubs really would bring back Nick Castellanos in this scenario, or make a big offer for a few years of Brandon Belt, or try to add a Kevin Gausman or a Marcus Stroman to the rotation. I’d imagine they’ll aim for at least one *big* free agent signing regardless, but for every productive player the front office can pay the league minimum, there’s that much more pie to be spent on other holes, and while it’s unlikely all four of these guys will pan out, the greater the number in their category, the higher the probability one will be a stud.
