The Cubs lost yesterday on a walk-off home run after trailing most of the day, and beyond Adam Morgan throwing a clean inning and Robinson Chirinos absolutely scalding a ball that turned into a lineout despite having a 98% probability of being a hit, everything good (or nearly good) that happened involved Rafael Ortega, who went 4-for-4 with five home runs and all five runs batted in.
Ortega’s an interesting find, with hardly a year of service time despite debuting in 2012, a negative career fWAR despite having a 144 wRC+ over 123 plate appearances this year, and an xwOBA that indicates that 144 number is perhaps a bit lucky but not a full-on fluke. He’s thirty years old, under Cubs control as long as they’re willing to keep him on the active roster, and competent enough defensively to not be noticed in center field.
Will he be part of the Cubs’ future?
Probably not.
Ortega will likely keep starting the rest of the year. He might even be a full-time starter next year. But two problems make him a temporary piece:
The first is that it’s unlikely he’ll maintain a pace remotely similar to this one over the rest of this year, let alone over years to come. Again, he’s been below replacement-level over his career, so for as good as he is right now, the rest of his year of service time has been bad enough to outweigh the good. If he is good, he also figures to start his decline quite soon, already having entered his 30’s. This could be wrong, but he’s probably just extremely hot right now, and the Cubs’ best hope for him is probably that he’s narrowly better than replacement-level next year while they keep an eye on the division and see if they can make a little run.
The second is that there’s unlikely to be enough space to keep him on the roster that long. Jason Heyward is still signed through 2023. Brennen Davis is on track to debut in 2023. Ian Happ has better career numbers than Ortega by a mile, this dreadful year and all. It’s hard to hold onto fourth outfielders for a long time.
That all said, maybe Ortega’s always just needed a sustained chance, and as this chance is sustained, maybe he’ll make the most of it and at least give the Cubs enough hope to focus their free agency efforts this offseason on the corners of the infield rather than on finding major production in the outfield. He figures to get a nice, long chance.
At the very least, we’ll always have yesterday. That was fun.
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The Diaspora:
Kris Bryant homered in his Giants debut. Anthony Rizzo came through again for the Yankees, delivering the tying base hit as they rallied past the Marlins late. Craig Kimbrel pitched a scoreless eighth in a narrow White Sox win.
Around the Division:
The Brewers have picked up reliever John Axford, who wasn’t on the Blue Jays’ 40-man roster. Axford is 39 and hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2018, but he’s back now, and who knows with bullpen guys.
Up Next:
Three in Denver, but those don’t start until tomorrow.
