The Cubs were off yesterday, but I would assume Rafael Ortega still homered.
We spoke about Ortega a bit yesterday, but one thing we didn’t mention is whom he might be up against as the Cubs start filling out next season’s depth chart come October and November. At the moment, you have Willson Contreras, Nico Hoerner, and Nick Madrigal locked in up the middle; Jason Heyward and Ian Happ likely locked into the outfield (it’s difficult to imagine the Cubs moving on from either this early, and I know it’s not “early” with Heyward but there are two more expensive years on his contract…etc.); and David Bote locked onto the roster in some form. Patrick Wisdom will likely be back as well, and as we say that, it’s worth noting that the designated hitter is expected to be a facet of National League baseball in 2022. That leaves roughly six spots for position players, with one destined to be a backup catcher from somewhere (this is fodder for a later post—Miguel Amaya has been a bit of an injury saga this year on the farm), one probably a guy who can play shortstop (Madrigal has not played a single MLB inning at short, Bote can do it but we have a poor idea of how well), one the third starting outfielder, one the starting first baseman and/or designated hitter if Wisdom’s part of that mix, and two additional bench spots. Ortega could be that third starting outfielder, but you’re at risk of having an entire outfield at or below replacement level if you go that route (if you’re curious, I’d guess the Cubs address first base and left field through free agency, and I wouldn’t be surprised if at least one of those two is a splashy, middle-of-the-order move), meaning the options for Ortega are either the fourth outfield spot, in which he can mix in with Happ and Heyward, or the wild card bench spot.
Which brings us to Matt Duffy.
Duffy was a great guy to have around in May, when everything was wonderful and the Brewers were mediocre. He’s clearly someone of whom the Cubs think highly, and may want to keep around long-term in a coaching/development/front office role. He’ll presumably be available cheap, given he’s expected to end the 2019-21 span at roughly replacement level. He can play a little outfield if necessary and he’s appeared in the middle infield in a pinch over these last three years (one game at shortstop in Tampa Bay in 2019, two games at second for the Cubs this year). For the last spot on the bench, he’s an option. But if it comes down to him or Ortega…Ortega has the higher ceiling. Ortega is available even cheaper.
Maybe the Cubs keep both. Maybe they keep neither. But even from separate position groups, their return probabilities are at least somewhat negatively correlated. One of many things to keep an eye on.
***
The Diaspora:
The Yankees lost for the first time with Anthony Rizzo on the roster. Javy Báez drew an unintentional walk off Jesús Luzardo.
Around the Division:
Josh Hader has tested positive for Covid, so he’s out for a bit, but so long as his sickness isn’t severe (we don’t know if he’s vaccinated or not), it could be a nice little rest for the guy going into the stretch run. Cynical thought, and hopefully he’s fine, but it’s news.
The Cubs are firmly in fourth place at the moment, and figure to stay there.
Up Next:
Three in Denver against a Rockies team that is bad, but not as bad as they would be if they’d done the sensible thing and traded Trevor Story.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Colorado
Where:
Denver
When:
7:40 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Scattered storms, so keep an eye on that. Temperature in the low 70’s, wind expected to be blowing from left to right and maybe a little in at five to ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Zach Davies vs. Kyle Freeland
The Opponent:
Freeland has never again been what he was for the 2018 Rockies, so those of you having flashbacks to that Wild Card Game can…I don’t know, does that make me feel worse? Anyway, 5.05 FIP, 4.84 xERA this year. Not terrible for a guy pitching in Denver.
The Numbers:
Cubs are +125 underdogs, Rockies are at -135, we have fallen (42% win probability or so). Over/under at 11½, favoring the under at the moment.
Cubs News:
Jed Hoyer went on the radio yesterday and basically said the Rizzo/Báez/Bryant camps all weren’t reasonable in extension negotiations. Anthony Rizzo went on the radio this morning and basically said that if all three guys reached the same outcome with the Cubs, that points towards the Cubs being the unreasonable ones.
Cubs Thoughts:
I wish Hoyer hadn’t said that. My impression, based on the leaks, is that he’s right, but I wish he hadn’t said it. Emotionally and from a baseball perspective, the Cubs have a place for Rizzo next year in a way that makes sense fiscally, but if he and Hoyer are now at odds, it’s a lot harder to see that happening, since presumably the Cubs won’t offer over-market and now Rizzo would presumably want to take another at-market offer over that of the Cubs, even if they’re identical. I don’t know. We’ll see. But if I had to guess, Hoyer was feeling the heat from this weekend’s emotions and lost his cool on air or made a bad public relation calculation or is pissed enough that he doesn’t want to re-sign any of the three. And each of those three is sad, but they’re also potentially bad, because the Cubs probably need a first baseman who can hit, and I don’t think Freddie Freeman’s leaving Atlanta and I think there might be a big run for Brandon Belt’s services with the DH coming to the NL and behind them, I think it’s basically just Rizzo on the market unless I’m really missing someone.
Anyway, that’s sad, and while we’re at it I wish the Rizzo camp hadn’t leaked the extension offer from this spring (they were the ones that leaked it, right?) but I’m also kind of glad they did, because it’s held up pretty well so far and now we at least know the Cubs probably aren’t full of shit.
