It was another great night from Kyle Hendricks=, as the rebuilding Cubs got their first win as the rebuilding Cubs.
Hendricks is having a rough year, by his standards. His 3.71 ERA is the worst he’s posted since his first full MLB season back in 2015. His 4.66 FIP is the worst he’s posted, ever, and by a wide margin, with the previous high a 3.88 back in ’17.
Some of this struggle, of course, has been eliminated. After those first five starts, two of which came against Atlanta and were particularly disastrous as Hendricks believed he was tipping pitches in at least the first of the pair, Hendricks has managed a 2.89 ERA ahead of a 3.87 FIP. Still not incredible for him, but solid (especially on the ERA front), and as we continue our looking ahead to this uncertain Wrigleyville future, he’s one of so, so many question marks.
There are a few possible interpretations of Hendricks. One is that he’ll age gracefully, like Greg Maddux or at least Jamie Moyer, having never averaged a 90 mph fastball anyway. Another is that if he throws any slower, hitters will finally catch up to him. One is that his routine ERA/FIP gap is unsustainable, and that his 4.74 xERA is actively concerning given xERA’s closer relationship than FIP to Hendricks’s real results. One is that Hendricks will continue to outperform his peripherals, and that those peripherals aren’t as predictive with him as they are with pitchers as a whole because he is a wholly different thing than the average major league pitcher.
For whatever it’s worth, his velocity has been about even this year, falling right in the middle of where it’s sat for the last five years. That could be misleading—maybe the wear and tear will catch up to him over these last two months and the velocity will drop (he’s on pace for somewhere around 190 innings, which would approach his career high of 199 in 2018). Regardless, we don’t really know how good Hendricks will continue to be, and we don’t know whether he’ll adhere to a conventional aging curve.
Hendricks is signed through 2023, with an option in 2024 that I believe did not vest but is now a club option. In other words, he’s signed through either 2023 or 2024, which at this point doesn’t make the biggest difference. He’s paid a rather affordable price for the WAR he provides—$14M right now, potentially $16M (though there may be a $1.5M buyout attached there) in 2024—which would imply that if the market doesn’t substantially change and if Hendricks’s production remains comfortably north of 2.0 WAR (which he may not reach this year on the fWAR side of the WAR divide) and if the Cubs are looking to contend in 2023 and/or 2024, it’ll be in their interests to keep the guy barring what they view as an overpayment for his services this offseason or at next year’s deadline (or the following offseasons and deadlines, in certain instances). An extension? It’s certainly possible, but we just don’t know. Kyle Hendricks could be a Cub until he’s 45. He could be gone next July. Again: We just don’t know. The fact they held him at this deadline does probably signify that they think he could end up being part of a playoff rotation again. But we’ll see.
That all said, he’s one of the most likely guys to still be around when the contention window reopens, behind only really Nick Madrigal and Brennen Davis and Nico Hoerner and maybe Willson Contreras/David Bote. So if you’re craving attachment to someone on this roster, Hendricks might be your best bet.
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The Diaspora:
Anthony Rizzo homered again for the Yankees last night while Javy Báez homered in his Mets debut (against the Reds, of course). Ryan Tepera got two outs while allowing one hit and two inherited runners to score. Craig Kimbrel and Andrew Chafin pitched scoreless innings. Yu Darvish allowed three home runs in San Diego as the Padres lost to the Rockies, but did strike out eight while only walking two.
Around the Division:
It’s the Brewers’ world, although they did lose last night.
1. Milwaukee: 62-43
2. Cincinnati: 55-50
3. St. Louis: 52-52
4. Cubs: 51-55
5. Pittsburgh: 40-64
Up Next:
The rubber match.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Washington
When:
12:05 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Nationals Park
Weather:
Scattered storms could be an issue. Temperatures in the 70’s, wind blowing out and across towards left at about five miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Adbert Alzolay vs. Erick Fedde
The Opponent:
Fedde’s got a 4.77 xERA, a 4.66 FIP, and a 5.05 ERA. Serviceable guy.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +100 underdogs, with their hosts at -120. Implied win probability of 47% or 48%. Over under’s at 8½ and leans towards the under.
Cubs News:
One thing that I didn’t mention up top was that Rafael Ortega homered and now has a 115 wRC+ on the year. There should be some regression, but at the same time, Ortega’s smoking the ball, with a .331 xwOBA that’s more than welcome. Nice guy to have on board at a time like this.
Cubs Thoughts:
Winning the series would be nice.
