Three weeks left. This is one of them. Let’s see what our model thinks of the weekend ahead.
The fine print:
- Probabilities come from Thursday morning, after this week’s MACtion but before anything else. If they differ at all from what we listed elsewhere, it’s just normal deviations from a “small” sample of simulations. 10,000 simulations is a lot, but probabilities wobble by a percentage point or two when you only run that many in every set.
- Movelor is our model’s power rating system. It gives us spreads. It does not directly account for injuries.
- Our model currently only accounts for two-way and three-way ties that can be solved by direct head-to-head. No other conference tiebreakers are included in our model yet this year, though we’re monitoring all situations.
- We’re only focusing on games with conference championship and playoff impact. That leaves us with plenty of games, but there are always games left out.
- When we list out the standings, we sometimes only go down far enough to include teams with a 5% or better chance of making their conference title game.
MVFC
Standings:
- North Dakota State: 6–0
- North Dakota: 4–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Illinois State at Indiana State (Illinois State by 6.6)
- North Dakota State at North Dakota (North Dakota State by 14.5)
- Southern Illinois at Youngstown State (Youngstown State by 5.2)
- South Dakota State at South Dakota (South Dakota State by 8.9)
Playoff probabilities:
- Illinois State: 41% right now, 57% with a win, 7% with a loss
- North Dakota: 84% right now, 99% with a win, 81% with a loss
- North Dakota State: 100%
- South Dakota: 24% right now, 57% with a win, 12% with a loss
- South Dakota State: 99% right now, 100% with a win, 95% with a loss
- Southern Illinois: 48% right now, 83% with a win, 29% with a loss
- Youngstown State: 53% right now, 77% with a win, 10% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- North Dakota: 10% right now, 61% with a win, 0% with a loss
- North Dakota State: 90% right now, 100% with a win, 39% with a loss
So much going on with all four of these. North Dakota State trying to clinch. North Dakota and South Dakota State trying to bounce back. South Dakota trying to capture momentum out of nowhere after a rough first two months. SIU and Youngstown State in a bubble game. Indiana State suddenly dangerous for Illinois State. The MVFC is awesome.
Big Sky
Standings:
- Montana: 5–0
- Montana State: 5–0
- UC Davis: 4–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Eastern Washington at Montana (Montana by 20.6)
- Weber State at Montana State (Montana State by 37.2)
- Sacramento State at Portland State (Sacramento State by 13.0)
- Northern Colorado at Northern Arizona (Northern Arizona by 13.8)
- UC Davis at Idaho (Idaho by 1.1)
Playoff probabilities:
- Idaho: 7% right now, 13% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Montana: 100%
- Montana State: 100% right now, 100% with a win, 99% with a loss
- Northern Arizona: 53% right now, 62% with a win, 7% with a loss
- Sacramento State: 16% right now, 20% with a win, 0% with a loss
- UC Davis: 84% right now, 100% with a win, 71% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Montana: 27% right now, 28% with a win, 19% with a loss
- Montana State: 72% right now, 72% with a win, 58% with a loss
- UC Davis: 1% right now, 2% with a win, 0% with a loss
UC Davis in the Kibbie Dome. UC Davis suddenly needing the win. Idaho suddenly potentially back to life.
UAC
Standings:
- Tarleton State: 5–1
- Abilene Christian: 4–1
- Southern Utah: 3–2
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Utah Tech at Abilene Christian (Abilene Christian by 22.6)
- Southern Utah at Eastern Kentucky (Southern Utah by 6.3)
- Central Arkansas at Austin Peay (Austin Peay by 16.6)
Playoff probabilities:
- Abilene Christian: 76% right now, 80% with a win, 27% with a loss
- Austin Peay: 14% right now, 17% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Eastern Kentucky: 1% right now, 4% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Southern Utah: 5% right now, 7% with a win, 0% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Abilene Christian: 62% right now, 67% with a win, 5% with a loss
There’s a two or three percent chance that Southern Utah manages to get itself into a three-way tie with Tarleton and ACU. Would require a lot to happen, including SUU winning in Richmond on Saturday. Anyway, I can’t find the UAC’s tiebreakers so I don’t know who gets the automatic bid in that scenario. I will say: If the UAC doesn’t have tiebreakers yet, they should consider building them in ways favorable to either ACU or SUU. Better chance at two bids that way, since Tarleton’s looking like a safe at-large even if they do lose again.
Ivy League
Standings:
- Harvard: 4–0
- Penn: 3–1
- Yale: 3–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Harvard at Columbia (Harvard by 24.7)
- Yale at Brown (Yale by 13.2)
- Cornell at Penn (Penn by 6.8)
- Princeton at Dartmouth (Dartmouth by 13.2)
Playoff probabilities:
- Dartmouth: 73% right now, 82% with a win, 33% with a loss
- Harvard: 100% right now, 100% with a win, 98% with a loss
- Penn: 20% right now, 29% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Yale: 67% right now, 77% with a win, 19% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Harvard: 72% right now, 73% with a win, 56% with a loss
- Penn: 4% right now, 5% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Yale: 25% right now, 30% with a win, 2% with a loss
All four Ivy League playoff contenders play the four non-playoff contenders. Good setup weekend. Yale plays Penn next week, which could make Harvard vs. Yale a winner-take-all conference championship.
CAA
Standings:
- Monmouth: 5–0
- Rhode Island: 5–0
- Villanova: 5–1
- Maine: 4–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- New Hampshire at Monmouth (Monmouth by 7.5)
- Maine at Hampton (Maine by 14.2)
- Villanova at Townson (Villanova by 7.0)
- Rhode Island at Elon (Rhode Island by 4.2)
Playoff probabilities:
- Maine: 2% right now, 3% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Monmouth: 97% right now, 100% with a win, 91% with a loss
- New Hampshire: 2% right now, 8% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Rhode Island: 74% right now, 92% with a win, 45% with a loss
- Villanova: 89% right now, 98% with a win, 69% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Maine: 2% right now, 2% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Monmouth: 59% right now, 74% with a win, 26% with a loss
- Rhode Island: 34% right now, 50% with a win, 10% with a loss
- Villanova: 4% right now, 6% with a win, 0% with a loss
Reminder: In the CAA, there are too many teams and not enough conference games, so every now and then a tiebreaker gets settled by comparing a capped version of point differential. Why do I bring this up? Big incentive for everyone in the race to win by more than 20.
Southland
Standings:
- Stephen F. Austin: 5–0
- Southeastern Louisiana: 5–0
- Lamar: 4–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Stephen F. Austin at Houston Christian (Stephen F. Austin by 28.3)
- Southeastern Louisiana at Lamar (Southeastern Louisiana by 9.7)
Playoff probabilities:
- Lamar: 32% right now, 79% with a win, 16% with a loss
- Southeastern Louisiana: 84% right now, 95% with a win, 53% with a loss
- Stephen F. Austin: 99% right now, 99% with a win, 85% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Lamar: 3% right now, 12% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Southeastern Louisiana: 28% right now, 37% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Stephen F. Austin: 69% right now, 70% with a win, 26% with a loss
Big week in the gas station conference.
SoCon
Standings:
- Mercer: 6–0
- Western Carolina: 5–0
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Mercer at Western Carolina (Mercer by 5.7)
Playoff probabilities:
- Mercer: 96% right now, 100% with a win, 87% with a loss
- Western Carolina: 50% right now, 98% with a win, 25% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Mercer: 67% right now, 100% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Western Carolina: 33% right now, 98% with a win, 0% with a loss
It’s not winner-take-all if WCU wins—they’d still need to win one more. But it’s fun!
SWAC
Standings, East Division:
- Jackson State: 4–1
- Alabama State: 4–1
- Bethune-Cookman: 4–1
Standings, West Division:
- Prairie View A&M: 4–1
- Grambling State: 3–2
- Texas Southern: 3–2
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Prairie View A&M at Alabama A&M (Prairie View A&M by 0.4)
- Texas Southern at Alabama State (Alabama State by 22.2)
- Bethune-Cookman at Grambling State (Grambling State by 0.05)
- Jackson State at Mississippi Valley State (Jackson State by 27.6)
Playoff probabilities:
- Alabama State*****: 34% right now, 36% with a win, 0% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Alabama State: 25% right now, 26% with a win, 4% with a loss
- Bethune-Cookman: 1% right now, 1% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Grambling State: 0% right now, 1% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Jackson State: 74% right now, 77% with a win, 13% with a loss
- Prairie View A&M: 98% right now, 100% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Texas Southern: 1% right now, 7% with a win, 0% with a loss
Those asterisks next to Alabama State are because of the Turkey Day Classic question. Alabama State is scheduled to host its traditional Thanksgiving game against Tuskegee, something which would conflict with any FCS Playoff berth. I’m guessing Alabama State would decline any FCS Playoff invitation and choose the Turkey Day Classic, but we’ve reached out to their athletic department just to make sure. We’ll keep you and our model updated.
OVC–Big South
Standings:
- Tennessee Tech: 6–0
- UT Martin: 4–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Tennessee Tech at Eastern Illinois (Tennessee Tech by 22.8)
- Southeast Missouri State at Gardner-Webb (Gardner-Webb by 7.4)
- Tennessee State at UT Martin (UT Martin by 17.4)
Playoff probabilities:
- Gardner-Webb: 23% right now, 33% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Tennessee Tech: 100% right now, 100% with a win, 98% with a loss
- UT Martin: 8% right now, 9% with a win, 0% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Tennessee Tech: 92% right now, 93% with a win, 86% with a loss
- UT Martin: 8% right now, 9% with a win, 0% with a loss
Tennessee Tech and UT Martin play on the last Saturday of the FCS regular season.
Patriot League
Standings:
- Lehigh: 4–0
- Lafayette: 4–0
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Holy Cross at Lehigh (Lehigh by 20.9)
- Colgate at Lafayette (Lafayette by 8.2)
Playoff probabilities:
- Colgate: 1% right now, 3% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Lafayette: 20% right now, 25% with a win, 10% with a loss
- Lehigh: 100% right now, 100% with a win, 97% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Colgate: 1% right now, 3% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Lafayette: 20% right now, 25% with a win, 10% with a loss
- Lehigh: 79% right now, 80% with a win, 63% with a loss
Colgate isn’t technically eliminated yet at 2–2. But they’d need to win out, and they’d need some other things to break their way.
Pioneer League
Standings:
- Drake: 5–0
- Presbyterian: 4–1
- Dayton: 4–2
- St. Thomas: 4–2
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Presbyterian at Davidson (Presbyterian by 21.4)
- St. Thomas at Drake (Drake by 2.9)
Playoff probabilities:
- Drake: 81% right now, 95% with a win, 62% with a loss
- Presbyterian: 35% right now, 38% with a win, 2% with a loss
- St. Thomas: 3% right now, 7% with a win, 0% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Drake: 81% right now, 95% with a win, 62% with a loss
- Presbyterian: 12% right now, 13% with a win, 1% with a loss
- St. Thomas: 3% right now, 6% with a win, 0% with a loss
There are some other teams who could sneak into the mix if St. Thomas does beat Drake. For now, though, that’s big all by itself.
NEC
Standings:
- Central Connecticut State: 4–0
- Duquesne: 3–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Stonehill at Central Connecticut State (Central Connecticut State by 13.0)
- Duquesne at LIU (Duquesne by 2.9)
Playoff probabilities:
- Central Connecticut State: 53% right now, 59% with a win, 25% with a loss
- Duquesne: 45% right now, 62% with a win, 21% with a loss
- Stonehill: 1% right now, 6% with a win, 0% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Central Connecticut State: 51% right now, 58% with a win, 24% with a loss
- Duquesne: 45% right now, 62% with a win, 21% with a loss
- Stonehill: 1% right now, 5% with a win, 0% with a loss
There is some major chaos potential in the NEC, but it’s probably going to get snuffed out unless Stonehill upsets CCSU.
MEAC
Standings:
- Delaware State: 2–0
- South Carolina State: 2–0
- North Carolina Central: 1–1
- Howard: 1–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Delaware State at Morgan State (Morgan State by 2.7)
- Howard at South Carolina State (South Carolina State by 14.8)
- Norfolk State at North Carolina Central (North Carolina Central by 24.6)
Conference championship probabilities:
- Delaware State: 33% right now, 54% with a win, 18% with a loss
- Howard: 3% right now, 18% with a win, 0% with a loss
- North Carolina Central: 21% right now, 22% with a win, 1% with a loss
- South Carolina State: 42% right now, 48% with a win, 12% with a loss
Good stuff from the MEAC conference season so far. We’re still curious if Movelor has found Delaware State’s level.
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