Last night, it was announced that the Cubs had traded Mike Montgomery to Kansas City in return for Martin Maldonado. Here’s what to make of it:
The Mike Montgomery Piece of Things
Montgomery has long petitioned for a role as a full-time starter. He’ll get that opportunity in Kansas City. He’ll presumably make more money there in 2020 and 2021 than he would have in Chicago, as a starting pitcher in any form presumably will command more in arbitration than a long reliever.
Montgomery is having the worst year of his career by far, with a 5.67 ERA over 27 innings and an even worse 6.21 FIP. By fWAR, he’s been worth -0.6 wins compared to a replacement-level pitcher. Still, the Cubs are giving up some future value in him, including the prospect he might join their rotation in 2020 should Cole Hamels depart in free agency. He wasn’t a great option, and the Cubs have others: Kendall Graveman, Adbert Alzolay, Alec Mills, etc. But he was proven, dependably healthy for the most part, and highly affordable.
The Martin Maldonado Piece of Things
Clearly, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer thought Maldonado’s value over the rest of 2019 was worth as much or more as Montgomery’s present and future value (though Montgomery’s dissatisfaction likely contributed to their willingness to move him, and it’s now the second time in twelve months they’ve sent a player who’s made contributions to the Cubs and has a good reputation somewhere they might flourish—Tommy La Stella being the other example). So what is that value?
It is not offensive. At the plate, Maldonado has a 73 wRC+. Over 2016, ’17, and ’18, his wRC+’s were 78, 73, and 74, respectively. He’s a strong defensive catcher, though, finishing first among catchers in FanGraphs’ Defensive Runs Above Average in 2017, third in 2018, and in or near the top ten over much of the rest of his career despite always platooning. In the short term, this helps the Cubs plug the hole Contreras leaves on defense while upgrading the guy with whom their pitchers get to work.
How This Impacts the Rest of the Roster
In the long term, though, it gets a little weirder. It’s doubtful the Cubs were about to designate Montgomery for assignment, and it’s doubtful a week or two of Maldonado was valuable enough to justify parting with Montgomery when Taylor Davis is adequate and available in AAA. All of which goes to say that Maldonado is likely here for the rest of the season—they aren’t going to DFA him when Contreras comes back. Unless someone else gets hurt (which, as always, is very possible and scary), that creates a roster crunch.
The highest dichotomy of what will happen should Contreras come back with nobody getting hurt between now and his return is whether the Cubs will go with 12 pitchers and 13 position players or vice versa. If they go with 13 position players, the list is the same as it was yesterday, plus Maldonado. But if they go with 12, opting for a less-thinly spread bullpen, someone has to go.
Maldonado, as we discussed, doesn’t seem like the one to leave. Javy Báez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward, and Contreras are all also not going anywhere.
Which leaves seven candidates for a possible demotion. And before we go through this, let’s acknowledge that this is only one half of one possible scenario: someone might get hurt, the Cubs might choose to go with only twelve pitchers, Epstein and Hoyer might make another move between now and Contreras’ return, etc. But given that this scenario is, relatively speaking, pretty likely, it’s safe to assume Epstein and Hoyer have considered it, and have a few options in mind for how to solve it.
Now, the candidates:
Caratini: The man has a 123 wRC+ on the year, good enough to be the Cubs’ sixth-most valuable offensive player to date (four spots ahead of Jon Lester, for those scoring at home). Sending him down is possible, and would stop the backlog at catcher, but would hamper the offense while also removing the catcher with whom Yu Darvish has posted four of his six best starts (by FanGraphs’ version of game score). Darvish’s comfort level isn’t the most important thing for the Cubs, and given that Davis—not Contreras—was back there for the other two of those six best starts, it’s fair to say Caratini isn’t so much a safety blanket as a much-needed good framer, indicating Maldonado might be just as effective on that front. Still, if Caratini leaves, it’s more likely through a trade (where, as a controllable catcher who’s strong defensively and has shown the ability to hit for power and average, he’d be pretty valuable), perhaps for a bullpen arm. Even that possibility seems unlikely, and potentially unreasonable, but the offensive success has come over just 111 PA’s this year, so it’s fair to consider that the Cubs don’t have so much confidence in Caratini that they feel they need him at the MLB level for the rest of this season. Caratini leaving would lighten the backlog at catcher, but the Cubs have been vocal about managing Contreras’ workload, so another interpretation of the move is that adding Maldonado gives them two good defensive catchers who can spell Contreras, who in turn could play more outfield.
Daniel Descalso: DFA-ing Descalso would certainly be a crowd pleaser (and a big one, at that), but it will probably only happen if the Cubs really feel he’s a lost cause. Descalso was never great at the plate, but last year he put up a 111 wRC+, indicating he had it in him to be successful. Now, in nearly 200 PA’s, he’s at 50 in the same metric. He could get something back in a trade, but that something would have very little value. Between the rest of this season and all of next one he’s owed somewhere between $3M and $4M, which isn’t a ton of money. So, in addition to the two viable Caratini interpretations of the move, it’s possible this is a sign patience has run out with Descalso.
Robel Garcia: Garcia’s MLB career is only 22 PA’s old, but it’s been quite the start. Two home runs, a triple, two doubles, and two walks; good for a 187 wRC+ over the minute sample. If he keeps it up, there would be understandable outrage were he demoted, with many (myself included) calling bullshit on Epstein’s comments last fall that hitters needed to be evaluated more on production than talent. But he’s such an unknown that one of the more likely possibilities is that he cools off and is easily shipped back to Des Moines.
David Bote: Bote’s been slumping a bit, with only a 77 wRC+ since June 1st, but he’s still above average at the plate on the season. He has minor league options, and his evaluations as a prospect were never as high as those of many of his current peers, but again: production over talent.
Addison Russell: Russell isn’t hitting all that well (88 wRC+), but he’s hitting just as well as he has over his entire career (also an 88 wRC+), though it’s fair to say that the Cubs probably expected him to improve after 2016 rather than settle down/get worse. He’s still one of the most defensively valuable players on the roster, and he’s someone the Cubs have a specific plan for as a human being because of his history of abuse, a plan that likely involves some stability. A demotion is possible, but not probable.
Albert Almora Jr.: Almora’s offensive struggles have been well-documented, but he’s a good defensive outfielder, and the Cubs might not feel they have any others of those (Heyward grades out as below-average on the currently-in-vogue advanced metrics). An outfield of Schwarber, Heyward, and Contreras is potent offensively, but not ideal late in games.
Kyle Schwarber: Schwarber might be off-limits for a move, as he’s one of the few everyday Cubs right now. He’s only hitting moderately above average, but he’s a staple in the lineup and Epstein in particular has been known to value him above the market’s perception, even in the good times. He does have some minor league options, but it’s hard to imagine him being the one to go.
If handicapping this all myself, I’d be inclined to say the Cubs, facing this scenario, would bite the bullet and go with only twelve pitchers until a need there arises, relying on Maldonado and Caratini to extend starting pitchers’ outings and frequent back-end reinforcements to keep the bullpen fresh. But the greater takeaway from this is that many of the position players are comparably valuable right now. Of the seven, only Descalso would be easy to part with from a production standpoint, and that would be more of a gut-punch financially, as it would signal the end of any hope of a return on that investment.
More useful than hashing that out, though, is looking at what we can glean from the trade as far as Epstein and Hoyer’s thoughts go. And looking through all these possibilities, it seems some of the following are probably true:
- The Cubs really want Contreras to get enough rest.
- The Cubs are willing to option one of Caratini/Bote/Russell/Almora/Schwarber to Iowa if their hand is forced.
- The Cubs are willing to consider ending the Daniel Descalso experience.
These other things might be true:
- The Cubs wanted to get rid of Montgomery and get some value back in return.
- The Cubs perceive some mentoring and/or game-planning value in Maldonado that’s going to make the team better as a whole in the short and/or long-term.
- The Cubs are having trade talks regarding position players currently on the 25-man roster.
These things probably aren’t true, but are theoretically plausible:
- The Cubs have a future deal worked out to send Maldonado elsewhere once Contreras returns.
- The Cubs think Contreras’ injury might be more significant than they’re letting on.
- The Cubs have a one-for-one system when it comes to players with the initials MM.
In the end, injuries might work this all out. But the Trade Deadline is just more than two weeks away, and Martin Maldonado is now a Cub. None of this is meaningless.
