FanGraphs wrapped up its trade value series today, and one of the most notable things about it is how unlikely anyone on the list is to be traded. Unless I’m really missing someone, nobody in the top 50 is having their name floated in trade rumors, and while I’d imagine that’s not uncommon, it’s a good reminder of what the trade deadline isn’t, which is to say the trade deadline is not a time at which teams move their actual biggest assets. Teams don’t take one guy and say, “Let’s spread his value across a lot of guys and diversify our portfolio a bit and reshape the future of our franchise here a short way into the back half of the season.” I don’t know if they should or they shouldn’t, but they don’t, and the result is that the hauls within individual trades at the deadline are not as massive as they could be.
Who, though, could get the biggest return, of everyone mentioned? Joey Gallo pops out as a guy who made the Honorable Mention part of the list, not hitting free agency until after next season but all over the rumor mill. Beyond him…it’s sparse. Nobody else’s name from the Honorable Mention category is being thrown around, so it’s more guys you wouldn’t be shocked to see worked into some legitimate blockbuster if one were to materialize: Germán Márquez, Luis Castillo, Chris Paddack, Gleyber Torres, etc. Paddack could be involved in a Scherzer/Schwarber package. Castillo or Márquez could draw a great prospect haul if either of their employers turned to a rebuild. Torres could be included in some kind of Trevor Story/Gallo multi-team escapade. Overall, though, it really looks like it’ll just be Gallo, and even that’s not a sure thing, considering that of the two teams most loudly linked to him, one is down to 36.5% likely to make the playoffs at all, per FanGraphs, and the other’s most likely playoff slate includes a Wild Card Game against Kevin Gausman followed by a Division Series against the Dodgers.
The trade deadline is not a time that teams make one move that reshapes their future. It’s more significant as an inflection point—the spot where a team turns a corner towards or away from a period of contention. The direction they head is significant. The moves themselves are just one particularly large step on that path.
We’ll get big trades, we’ll get big names traded, and the element of time will make it a fun few days at the end of next week, but there are untouchables in every franchise, and they’re untouchable for a reason.
