We’ve got the first CFP rankings. Conference tiebreakers are coming into focus. Here’s what our model thinks of the weekend ahead.
The fine print:
- Probabilities come from Thursday morning, after this week’s MACtion but before anything else. If they differ at all from what we listed elsewhere, it’s just normal deviations from a “small” sample of simulations. 10,000 simulations is a lot, but probabilities wobble by a percentage point or two when you only run that many in every set.
- Movelor is our model’s power rating system. It gives us spreads. It does not directly account for injuries.
- Our model currently only accounts for two-way and three-way ties that can be solved by direct head-to-head. No other conference tiebreakers are included in our model yet this year, though we’re monitoring all situations.
- We’re only focusing on games with conference championship and playoff impact. That leaves us with plenty of games, but there are always games left out.
- When we list out the standings, we sometimes only go down far enough to include teams with a 5% or better chance of making their conference title game.
SEC
Standings:
- Texas A&M: 5–0
- Alabama: 5–0
- Mississippi: 5–1
- Georgia: 5–1
- Texas: 4–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Georgia at Mississippi State (Georgia by 10.6)
- The Citadel at Mississippi (Mississippi by 58.0)
- Texas A&M at Missouri (Texas A&M by 1.3)
- Auburn at Vanderbilt (Vanderbilt by 12.2)
- LSU at Alabama (Alabama by 12.3)
Playoff probabilities:
- Alabama: 82% right now, 90% with a win, 50% with a loss
- Georgia: 85% right now, 93% with a win, 58% with a loss
- Mississippi: 92% right now, 92% with a win, 45% with a loss
- Missouri: 11% right now, 23% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Texas A&M: 85% right now, 97% with a win, 72% with a loss
- Vanderbilt: 3% right now, 4% with a win, 0% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Alabama: 80% right now, 88% with a win, 44% with a loss
- Georgia: 31% right now, 39% with a win, 3% with a loss
- Texas A&M: 46% right now, 68% with a win, 21% with a loss
One big note about these conference championship probabilities: In the event Georgia, Mississippi, and Texas A&M all finish SEC play 7–1, our model is currently treating the tiebreaker as random. That isn’t hugely likely, but it’s the chalk scenario right now—the scenario that happens if every favorite wins. We’ll keep monitoring and get all relevant tiebreakers in there over the next few weeks.
Big Ten
Standings:
- Indiana: 6–0
- Ohio State: 5–0
- Michigan: 5–1
- Iowa: 4–1
- Oregon: 4–1
- USC: 4–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Northwestern at USC (USC by 15.9)
- Indiana at Penn State (Indiana by 9.9)
- Ohio State at Purdue (Ohio State by 36.5)
- Oregon at Iowa (Oregon by 10.1)
- Washington at Wisconsin (Washington by 8.8)
Playoff probabilities:
- Indiana: 99% right now, 100% with a win, 96% with a loss
- Iowa: 7% right now, 28% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Ohio State: 100%
- Oregon: 77% right now, 87% with a win, 45% with a loss
- USC: 8% right now, 9% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Washington: 3% right now, 4% with a win, 0% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Indiana: 95% right now, 99% with a win, 84% with a loss
- Iowa: 1% right now, 2% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Ohio State: 93% right now, 94% with a win, 64% with a loss
- Oregon: 4% right now, 6% with a win, 0% with a loss
- USC: 2% right now, 3% with a win, 0% with a loss
Big 12
Standings:
- BYU: 5–0
- Texas Tech: 5–1
- Cincinnati: 5–1
- Houston: 4–2
- Utah: 4–2
- Arizona State: 4–2
- TCU: 3–2
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Houston at UCF (UCF by 2.1)
- BYU at Texas Tech (Texas Tech by 6.7)
- Iowa State at TCU (TCU by 6.1)
Playoff probabilities:
- BYU: 55% right now, 84% with a win, 42% with a loss
- TCU: 2% right now, 3% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Texas Tech: 76% right now, 90% with a win, 48% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- BYU: 66% right now, 93% with a win, 53% with a loss
- Houston: 2% right now, 4% with a win, 0% with a loss
- TCU: 4% right now, 6% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Texas Tech: 73% right now, 91% with a win, 35% with a loss
ACC
Standings:
- Virginia: 5–0
- Georgia Tech: 5–1
- Pitt: 5–1
- Louisville: 4–1
- SMU: 4–1
- Duke: 4–1
- Miami: 2–2
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- SMU at Boston College (SMU by 13.0)
- Syracuse at Miami (Miami by 25.5)
- Duke at UConn (Duke by 8.1)
- Wake Forest at Virginia (Virginia by 11.5)
- Cal at Louisville (Louisville by 21.0)
Playoff probabilities:
- Duke: 8% right now, 9% with a win, 5% with a loss
- Louisville: 21% right now, 22% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Miami: 21% right now, 22% with a win, 0% with a loss
- SMU: 13% right now, 15% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Virginia: 26% right now, 30% with a win, 8% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Louisville: 25% right now, 27% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Miami: 2% right now, 2% with a win, 0% with a loss
- SMU: 31% right now, 37% with a win, 4% with a loss
- Virginia: 62% right now, 72% with a win, 26% with a loss
As with the SEC, our model isn’t ready yet for the chalk scenario here, which is a four-way tie at 7–1 covering both first and second place. It’s not that likely, but things are probably going to get funky. We’re monitoring it. In the meantime, that specific tiebreaker is handled randomly in our simulations.
American & Notre Dame
Standings:
- Navy: 5–1
- Memphis: 4–1
- North Texas: 4–1
- USF: 3–1
- Tulane: 3–1
- East Carolina: 3–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- UTSA at USF (USF by 14.3)
- Tulane at Memphis (Memphis by 13.6)
- Charlotte at East Carolina (East Carolina by 29.5)
- Navy at Notre Dame (Notre Dame by 32.7)
Playoff probabilities:
- East Carolina: 2% right now, 2% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Memphis: 31% right now, 37% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Notre Dame: 72% right now, 73% with a win, 12% with a loss
- Tulane: 2% right now, 12% with a win, 0% with a loss
- USF: 25% right now, 29% with a win, 1% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- East Carolina: 18% right now, 18% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Memphis: 48% right now, 57% with a win, 4% with a loss
- Tulane: 14% right now, 61% with a win, 3% with a loss
- USF: 53% right now, 61% with a win, 9% with a loss
The chalk scenario here ultimately leads to the CFP rankings themselves becoming the tiebreaker, because Memphis doesn’t play North Texas. That means our model’s probably overstating North Texas’s probabilities and understating those of Memphis and USF. Not by a ton or anything, but by a little.
Sun Belt
Standings, East Division:
- James Madison: 5–0
- Coastal Carolina: 4–1
Standings, West Division:
- Southern Miss: 4–0
- Troy: 4–1
- Arkansas State: 4–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- James Madison at Marshall (James Madison by 10.6)
- Southern Miss at Arkansas State (Arkansas State by 2.5)
- Georgia State at Coastal Carolina (Coastal Carolina by 13.4)
Playoff probabilities:
- James Madison: 30% right now, 38% with a win, 4% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Arkansas State: 40% right now, 67% with a win, 3% with a loss
- Coastal Carolina: 6% right now, 8% with a win, 1% with a loss
- James Madison: 92% right now, 95% with a win, 83% with a loss
- Southern Miss: 38% right now, 68% with a win, 15% with a loss
Mountain West
Standings:
- San Diego State: 4–0
- Boise State: 4–1
- Fresno State: 3–2
- Hawaii: 3–2
- New Mexico: 3–2
- UNLV: 2–2
- Utah State: 2–2
- San Jose State: 2–3
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Air Force at San Jose State (San Jose State by 4.7)
- Nevada at Utah State (Utah State by 10.9)
- UNLV at Colorado State (UNLV by 9.6)
- San Diego State at Hawaii (San Diego State by 1.5)
Playoff probabilities:
- San Diego State: 4% right now, 7% with a win, 0% with a loss
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Hawaii: 10% right now, 21% with a win, 1% with a loss
- San Diego State: 62% right now, 80% with a win, 41% with a loss
- San Jose State: 8% right now, 13% with a win, 1% with a loss
- UNLV: 13% right now, 16% with a win, 2% with a loss
Conference USA
Standings:
- Kennesaw State: 4–0
- Jacksonville State: 4–0
- Western Kentucky: 5–1
- Missouri State: 3–1
- Liberty: 3–1
- Louisiana Tech: 3–2
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Missouri State at Liberty (Liberty by 6.2)
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware (Louisiana Tech by 8.6)
- Jacksonville State at UTEP (Jacksonville State by 4.9)
- Kennesaw State at New Mexico State (Kennesaw State by 6.2)
Conference championship appearance probabilities:
- Jacksonville State : 57% right now, 69% with a win, 37% with a loss
- Kennesaw State: 47% right now, 57% with a win, 24% with a loss
- Liberty: 20% right now, 27% with a win, 4% with a loss
- Louisiana Tech: 8% right now, 10% with a win, 0% with a loss
MAC
Standings:
- Ohio: 4–1
- Buffalo: 4–1
- Miami (OH): 4–1
- Western Michigan: 4–1
- Central Michigan: 3–2
- Toledo: 3–2
- Ball State: 3–2
This week:
- Ohio 24, Miami (OH) 20
- Toledo 42, Northern Illinois 3
- Ball State 17, Kent State 13
Ohio, Miami–Ohio, and Toledo are still the class of the MAC, but there are plenty of teams hanging around. Good stuff the last two nights.
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