Zach Davies had arguably his best outing of the season yesterday, and while that isn’t to say it was a dominant performance, it can’t have hurt his trade value.
What is his trade value?
Davies is projected, by FanGraphs’s depth charts, to put up 0.4 fWAR the rest of the year, and while FIP is traditionally pessimistic on Davies, as has been pointed out here before, I’m not sure tradition holds when he’s walking so many more batters than he usually does. Whatever the case, he’s worth half a WAR the rest of the year at most.
What does that equate to? If the Cubs eat the last $3M or so of his salary, then they’re effectively giving up $4M of value at the traditional free agent $8M/WAR valuation. That’s an oversimplification, because 1) this is not free agency, 2) the specific need may drive the price up as we aren’t dealing with a generic replacement as the “R” in “WAR,” and 3) $8M/WAR isn’t a hard and fast rule in free agency to begin with. But it’s a decent reflection of his value, and for whatever it’s worth, it equates to a 45 FV pitcher or a 40+ FV position player in FanGraphs’s future WAR (with discounting included) valuation. In other words, the Cubs might be able to get a prospect who slots into the top 15 of their system, or ideally the top 20 once Craig Kimbrel and a few others have been dealt.
Speaking of Kimbrel: Kimbrel is 39th among MLB pitchers in fWAR this year, which is really dang good for a closer. But get this: In Win Probability Added, he’s eighth, and he’s 20th among all MLB players in that metric. Craig Kimbrel has done more for his team’s win probability this year than all but 19 major league players, and as the leverage increases, especially in the playoffs, that’s a testament to why he should command more in a trade than the 0.7 fWAR he’s expected to produce the rest of the year should suggest. Even if, in a hypothetical trade, his mutual option for next year isn’t part of the equation (at effectively $14M or $15M—“effectively” because this accounts for the buyout—and perhaps a 2.0 fWAR projection, it’s a little bit of a steal for the team that can exercise it but it isn’t a massive steal), you could probably expect him to get something more like a 1.0-fWAR return, or maybe even a 1.3-fWAR return, which is what Nelson Cruz commanded. I don’t know if Kimbrel can fetch a top-100 prospect, but I’m having a hard time seeing how he doesn’t get a bigger return than Kris Bryant, unless somebody is really set on overpaying for Kris Bryant (one other note on this: packaging the two together could absolutely get you a top-100 prospect, and maybe a top-50 prospect, and would also let the Cubs save face if the Bryant market is not what they’ve long tried to demand it be).
Last trade thought: Get Robinson Chirinos out now. This morning. Find someone who will give you something for him. He is a walking bag of value that is unlikely to grow over the next six days.
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Around the Division:
The Brewers beat the White Sox, 7-1, breaking the game open in the bottom of the seventh. Lucas Giolito, for those curious, only allowed one run but he walked five and only struck out three. The Reds beat the Cardinals, 6-5, but Nick Castellanos is going on the IL with a microfracture in his wrist.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee: 57-41, 90.5%
2. Cincinnati: 50-47, 6.1%
3. St. Louis: 49-49, 2.1%
4. Cubs: 48-50, 1.3%
5. Pittsburgh: 37-60, 0.0%
Luis Castillo vs. Jake Woodford in Cincinnati. Corbin Burnes vs. Carlos Rodón in Milwaukee.
Up Next:
Game 2
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Arizona
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Chance of rain later in the day, but should come after the game. Temperature in the 80’s, wind blowing out, more towards right center than left center, at ten to fifteen miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Alec Mills vs. Merrill Kelly
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -170 favorites, with the Diamondbacks at +155. That’s about a 60% win probability. The over/under’s at eleven and favors the under.
Cubs News:
Brad Wieck had a heart procedure, and while as far as heart procedures go it sounds like a relatively minor one, that still sounds scary. Wish him the best, of course. He’s on the 60-day IL, which made room for the Cubs to add Johneshwy Fargas to the 40-man roster after grabbing him off waivers from the Mets.
Cubs Thoughts:
Let’s go watch ‘em win another day game, hopefully. Kind of a balm, these games are.
