Did a little thread on Twitter on some of the NCAA Tournament probabilities entering today (started with me checking the likelihood of the entire Big Ten being eliminated before bedtime on Sunday, escalated from there), and that got me asking—as of right now, with half of the first round played, what’s the chalkiest outcome possible? It is, per our 10,000 simulations this morning (started with KenPom, ran ‘em hot), as follows, with probabilities of reaching each round next to the team’s name:
Sweet Sixteen:
Gonzaga (85%) vs. Arkansas (71%)
Duke (61%) vs. Texas Tech (61%)
Baylor (74%) vs. UCLA (58%)
Purdue (45%) vs. Murray State (76%)
Arizona (70%) vs. Houston (56%)
Villanova (56%) vs. Tennessee (74%)
Kansas (79%) vs. Providence (58%)
Auburn (65%) vs. LSU (42%)
Elite Eight:
Gonzaga (70%) vs. Texas Tech (35%)
Baylor (42%) vs. Purdue (32%)
Arizona (39%) vs. Tennessee (43%)
Kansas (62%) vs. Auburn (41%)
Final Four:
Gonzaga (46%) vs. Baylor (28%)
Arizona (22%) vs. Kansas (35%)
Championship:
Gonzaga (29%) vs. Kansas (17%)
Champion:
Gonzaga (18%)
***
Things that jump out:
- Despite not having played yet and having Houston in its path, Arizona is still more likely than Tennessee to make the Final Four.
- Murray State is currently the third-likeliest team to make the Sweet Sixteen.
- Kansas is more likely to lose the national championship game than win it, despite being a 1-seed.
Nothing earth-shattering, but speaks to the way in which first-round games are important at the top levels of the seed list: Winning doesn’t really change your situation, but one loss can shake everybody else the heck up.
