Isn’t that the question…
The Biggest Game: Alabama @ Florida
First off, nope, still no finished model (getting closer, but possibly a couple weeks away, still). The conventional wisdom is that Alabama can afford a loss, and I’d say the conventional wisdom is correct on that. I’d even offer that Alabama might be able to afford two losses, if they’re the right two losses and there are some other fortunate breaks. But that’s too in the weeds to give much time at this stage. Overall, the picture with Alabama is that they can afford a loss.
Of course, losing would still hurt, because when you can afford a loss and you lose, you can no longer afford that loss (and there are some advantages to just winning, namely that they demonstrate that you’re good enough to win, and therefore good enough to be expected to continue winning). Alabama would like to win this, and Alabama probably will win this, but we also said that about Ohio State last week, and I do think the run of such clear playoff fields the last three years has lulled us into a sense of something, comfort or otherwise. Alabama could certainly lose, and if Alabama does, they’ll likely need to win out to make the playoff, something that would drop their playoff probability from somewhere around 80% or 85% to somewhere around 40%.
For Florida, the route’s a little trickier, because they have more to worry about in their own division than Alabama does in its. With a win, Florida would be on track for an 11-1 finish (if you take the most probable outcome of each individual game, which isn’t the best way to project but is a way to project, and makes sense in certain contexts). That might be enough. One could see it being enough. The loss, in this hypothetical, would come at the paws of Georgia, and then Georgia might have to win the SEC (because if Georgia loses to Alabama, then, and you have three one-loss SEC teams, it’s hard to envision the one with one fewer win and nothing noteworthy from nonconference play getting the nod over one that beat Florida and one that won Florida’s conference’s championship). In other words, Florida winning will obviously increase its playoff probability, from something like 5% currently (maybe 3% or 4% with a loss) to something like 15%, but they wouldn’t be stealing probability from Alabama as much as opening up the race nationally with a win.
So, then, Florida doesn’t want to win for the sake of making the playoff.
Florida wants to win for the sake of beating Alabama, and for all that would entail.
The hype would follow, sure. But the accomplishment would be bigger than its impact on Florida’s future.
The Contenders
The contenders right now, I’d offer, are Alabama, Oklahoma, Clemson, Oregon, Georgia, and Ohio State. Until Ohio State loses a Big Ten game or someone in that league does something like beat a ranked opponent by fifty, the Buckeyes are the conference favorites over there, and the conference favorites in the Big Ten are playoff contenders. All six of these teams are at or above 25% playoff-likely, with no one else particularly close to that threshold. Of those six, only Alabama is expected to play a competitive game this week (*cue “oh will it be competitive?” chirp from the gallery*). Oklahoma hosts Nebraska. Clemson hosts Georgia Tech. Oregon hosts Stony Brook. Georgia hosts South Carolina. Ohio State hosts Tulsa. Could something happen? Sure. Will something happen? Probably not.
Eleven Fun Ones
None of these are likely to impact the playoff all that much. But each could (well, nine of them could), and at the very least, each offers something interesting.
Auburn @ Penn State
Big nonconference game, College Gameday chose Happy Valley over Gainesville (good choice, I would opine), things are exciting. Penn State’s one of three Big Ten teams looking to take the crown from Ohio State (the others are Michigan and Iowa, each of whom plays a tuneup this week), so an impressive showing could force us to ask the question of how big a Big Ten favorite Ohio State is (and whether by the plurality effect, Iowa might actually be the favorite). On the other side, Auburn’s one of six interesting teams in the SEC West (Alabama, ironically, is the least interesting right now, which is why Gameday going to Happy Valley is a good choice, I would opine). I don’t know where they stack up in that pack, but generally speaking, they’re probably comparable to Texas A&M, Mississippi, and Arkansas, ahead of LSU and Mississippi State. Win this big, and they may rise to the forefront of that group. Lose it, and we probably won’t notice as the meat grinder chews them up, aside from instances where they chew up others.
Tulane @ Mississippi
I have no idea what’s going to happen here. Tulane’s effort against Oklahoma was largely a late rally, which isn’t always that indicative of ability, but we also haven’t exactly seen that much from Lane Kiffin’s guys yet. Also, the game could reach the 60’s, which you can’t always say.
Cincinnati @ Indiana
The Hoosiers may have been written off too soon. Not in the playoff picture. There was no possible way to write them off too soon in that regard. But in the realm of being a competitive team, throwing two pick-sixes (picks six, excuse me) against a great defense isn’t the most damning thing in the world in the predictive sense. Anyway, they get a chance to be the big boys this weekend in an early game with the Bearcats of Cincinnati.
Cincinnati…I don’t want to say it, but, well, maybe. Maybe, maybe, maybe. I don’t know. I have no idea what it would take. Everyone in the Power Five having three or more losses save three teams? And Cincinnati then being undefeated? Notre Dame going 11-1, with their only loss coming to Brian Kelly’s former employer? I don’t know. After last year, I said, “Ok, fine, everyone’s right, there’s no way they’re letting a Group of Five team in there if they’re ranking these teams as low as they’re ranking them.” But at the same time, I don’t want to say never. I don’t want to say never. And with Cincinnati playing both Indiana and Notre Dame on the road, and potentially playing UCF twice, and having technically been a BCS Conference school…I don’t know. If any Group of Five could do it, it seems like it’d be Cincinnati or BYU. They’re the closest thing to those Boise State teams of the 2000’s. They’d have to go undefeated, though. That would be necessary.
Purdue @ Notre Dame
It’s the first time Notre Dame’s played Purdue since 2014, and with Notre Dame teetering on the brink of disaster these last two weeks, Purdue’s trying to be the dog at one of those breweries with the giant Jenga setup.
Until Notre Dame loses, we have to keep an eye on them, because they’re a Power Five team with a favorable schedule.
Virginia Tech @ West Virginia
West Virginia’s favored in this one, which tells you a lot, since West Virginia has its work cut out for it when it comes to bowl eligibility.
We’re still learning about Virginia Tech, but they may be the best team in the ACC Coastal (we’ll get to the other three next, and yes, it’s three), and they do host Notre Dame, and if the dice roll right, that could combine to them being in a place not unlike that of Iowa in 2015, where the team doesn’t look the part but the résumé is hard to decline (until it’s easy to decline).
Michigan State @ Miami
Miami’s in that mix with the Hokies, because there’s no amount by which a team can lose to Alabama that’s disqualification-worthy in discussions like these.
This is one of those where we really don’t know anything. Michigan State’s looked impressive, but against Northwestern and Youngstown State, and not that impressive. Miami did beat Appalachian State, and you never know how much that says, because Appalachian State is kind of a honey badger. The impacts here, as with all ten of the FBS games here, are marginal, but if Michigan State looks great, add them to the potential-struggle-or-potential-ranked-win list for Ohio State and even Penn State and Michigan; and if Miami looks great, add them to the potential menu for Clemson in the ACC Championship.
Virginia @ North Carolina
Completing our Coastal Quartet™ are the Cavaliers and the Tar Heels, neither of whom is all that promising (they’re each a step behind Virginia Tech and Miami) but neither of whom would be a surprise to see in Charlotte at year’s end. So in that sense, this is meaningful.
Fresno State @ UCLA
UCLA’s assumed the role of Pac-12 South favorite, with everyone else…goodness. Fresno State gave Oregon some trouble, and is therefore likely capable of giving UCLA trouble.
Arizona State @ BYU
Ok, maybe not everyone else in the Pac-12 South. BYU, who has seven Power Five schools on its schedule plus Boise State, is looking to keep knocking down pins. Their playoff shot appears slimmer than that of Cincinnati (again, look at what was going on with rankings last year), but they do have some sort of name recognition. Arizona State is looking to establish themselves as a UCLA or Iowa-type figure: One that isn’t really there with the contenders, but has such a favorable path (they don’t play Oregon in the regular season) that we have to keep an eye on them.
James Madison @ Weber State
Ring the siren, we’ve got an FCS contender nonconference game. When we get the model up and going, we’re hoping to bring back FCS Bracketology (it’s not the first feature we’ll roll out, but it’s on the top half of the list). In the meantime, we’ll keep you posted as to anything too exciting going on, and this is one of those things.
Coastal Carolina @ Buffalo
Finally, we’ve got Coastal Carolina. Playoff chances here are lower than low (their schedule is easier than last year’s), but the AP Poll loves them, so they’ll likely keep getting attention until they lose. Buffalo just got worked by Nebraska, but who knows what that means, and the Bulls are still the reigning MAC almost-champions, which…I mean I guess doesn’t really mean much. Basically, this has the sheen of a big Group of Five game without actually probably being a big one. But since it’s Coastal Carolina, it’s fun. They’re quirky!
Others
Mentioned or alluded to some of these, but Texas A&M hosts New Mexico, Michigan hosts Northern Illinois, Iowa hosts Kent State, Arkansas hosts Georgia Southern, Iowa State visits UNLV, and Texas hosts Rice. No one else all that likely to be in the conference championship mix, I don’t believe.
Viewing Schedule
Louisville vs. UCF should be a good game tonight, with UCF trying to make it a thing between them and Cincinnati. Indiana/Cincinnati’s the best one in the early slot tomorrow, then there’s Alabama/Florida, then there’s Auburn/Penn State, then you’ve got ASU and BYU in the nightcap (UCLA’s on Pac-12 Network, not sure who all gets that). Tulane/Mississippi is in the primetime slot against Auburn/Penn State, and Purdue/Notre Dame is an afternoon option if Alabama/Florida gets out of hand. Kind of a stacked early lineup, though. VT/WVU, MSU/Miami, Coastal/Buffalo are the backup options there.
