We talked a lot on Wednesday about who makes the playoff in various scenarios, so here’s that link if that’s what you’re looking for. This is not that, but if you’re looking for the short version of that, we can cover it quickly before we get into the actual games this weekend:
- Georgia: In.
- Michigan: Win and in, lose and need a lot of help.
- Alabama: Win and in, lose and need a little help.
- Cincinnati: Win and almost definitely in.
- Oklahoma State: Win and probably in.
- Notre Dame: Need a decent amount of help.
- Ohio State: Need a ton of help.
- Baylor: Win and need a ton of help.
- Oregon: Win and need a ton’s ton of help.
- Iowa: Win and need a ton of help.
Our model thinks, and I agree, that there are really just six teams here with any sort of chance—the six we’re all talking about. We would be shocked if Baylor, Oregon, or Iowa made the field, and we really don’t think Ohio State’s jumping Michigan or Notre Dame. Still, we’d tell each of those ten teams to at least hope, because you don’t lose anything by hoping. The rest? Sorry, friends and foes.
Now, to preview this weekend.
We aren’t previewing these games, really. You can find better previews of the games themselves elsewhere. I’ll admit that. We don’t watch any of these teams as closely as each of their beat writers do. What we’re doing, rather, is saying what everyone should be pulling for in each of the games, based on playoff and New Year’s Six bowl implications. This is not a preview of the games themselves. This is a viewing guide for each team in contention for any of college football’s six biggest bowls, and if your team isn’t in contention for those but you still care what bowl it makes, you may be able to figure out your own interests based on drafting off those of your conference—the higher your conference’s top team’s bowl, the higher yours, in many instances.
As a refresher, the New Year’s Six bowls (of which there are four, because two are the playoff semifinals) are as follows this year:
- Sugar Bowl: Big 12 vs. SEC, no matter what
- Rose Bowl: Big Ten vs. Pac-12, no matter what
- Fiesta Bowl: At-large vs. At-large
- Peach Bowl: At-large vs. At-large
For the at-large spots, one must go to the highest-ranked Group of Five champion unless Cincinnati makes the playoff, and one must go to the ACC champion. This means that as it stands, it’s looking like it’ll be Notre Dame, Michigan State, the ACC champion, and then either Mississippi or Oklahoma State in these two games, with Ohio State, Michigan, Cincinnati, Houston, Baylor, and even BYU as other possibilities (if all went according to script, Ohio State would go to the Rose Bowl, Michigan and Cincinnati would go to the playoff, Baylor would go to the Sugar Bowl if Oklahoma State won and made the playoff, and Alabama would go to the Sugar Bowl if Alabama didn’t make the playoff).
The games, listed in order of overall weekend impact, are as follows. What each team wants to happen is below that. The teams included are those with any sort of playoff hope and those whose New Year’s Six interests aren’t as simple as just wanting to win their game (in other words, we’re just talking about what the teams currently ranked in the top thirteen want to happen).
Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma State vs. Baylor
Saturday, 12:00 PM EST; ABC
AAC Championship: Houston @ Cincinnati
Saturday, 4:00 PM EST; ABC
SEC Championship: Georgia vs. Alabama
Saturday, 4:00 PM EST; CBS
Big Ten Championship: Michigan vs. Iowa
Saturday, 8:00 PM EST; FOX
Pac-12 Championship: Oregon vs. Utah
Friday, 8:00 PM EST; ABC
ACC Championship: Pitt vs. Wake Forest
Saturday, 8:00 PM EST; ABC
Mountain West Championship: Utah State @ San Diego State
Saturday, 3:00 PM EST; FOX
Sun Belt Championship: Appalachian State @ Louisiana-Lafayette
Saturday, 3:30 PM EST; ESPN
MAC Championship: Northern Illinois vs. Kent State
Saturday, 12:00 PM EST; ESPN
Conference USA Championship: Western Kentucky @ UTSA
Friday, 7:00 PM EST; CBSSN
USC @ Cal
Saturday, 11:00 PM EST; FS1
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Rooting Interests: Georgia
For Georgia, one game obviously commands the attention, and that’s their game: the SEC Championship. For Georgia fans, leading up to it, there’s some interest in Oklahoma State winning, because the Dawgs would likely prefer to play the Pokes rather than Michigan, Alabama, Cincinnati, or Notre Dame in the semifinal. Beyond that, they want Michigan and Cincinnati to win so they stand the best chance of getting Alabama out of the field, but if they should lose to Alabama, their interests will twist and they’ll want Michigan to lose so that Alabama will be ranked first and they’ll be ranked second (there’s a chance of Michigan staying above hypothetical 12-1 Alabama with a win over Iowa).
Rooting Interests: Michigan
As with Georgia, Michigan has one game on the mind. Before that, though, there’s some intrigue. Michigan could make the field with a loss to Iowa, but only if Oklahoma State loses to Baylor and Cincinnati loses to Houston. In that instance, Michigan will want all the help they can get: Utah beating Oregon (hurting Ohio State); Northern Illinois beating Kent State (Michigan beat NIU); Western Kentucky beating UTSA and Louisiana-Lafayette beating Appalachian State and Utah State beating San Diego State (Michigan would benefit from Wisconsin becoming ranked, and the only way that happens is if SDSU drops out and UTSA & Appalachian State don’t jump in [though I believe App State would just flip with ULL should they beat the Cajuns]).
Rooting Interests: Alabama
Alabama’s in with a win. If they lose, they’re probably in as long as either Oklahoma State loses to Baylor or Cincinnati loses to Houston. So, those things will be on their minds. They’d probably benefit from a Michigan loss to Iowa, and they want Texas A&M to stay ranked, making them a fan of Kent State (whom the Aggies beat) as well as the WKU/ULL/Utah State trio (same reasons as Michigan’s in terms of fringe rankings, though I don’t think Texas A&M will fall out even in the worst-case for them), though the things that help Texas A&M stay ranked could help Wisconsin or Purdue become ranked, meaning…maybe they actually want San Diego State to win.
Rooting Interests: Cincinnati
Cincinnati, like these others, has a game of their own that’s the focus, but beyond that: Cincinnati would strongly prefer Oklahoma State to lose to Baylor, just to guarantee they control their fate. They’d also prefer Alabama to lose to Georgia, though as we’ve noted, there’s no guarantee Cincinnati jumps an 11-2 Bama, even if we rather confidently think they will.
Interests don’t disappear if Cincinnati loses. The Bearcats could still take one of the New Year’s Six at-large bids, making them interested in Oregon taking down Utah and locking themselves into the Rose Bowl and Michigan taking care of business and keeping Iowa out of the NY6.
Rooting Interests: Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is probably in with a win over Baylor, but they may need help. They want Georgia to beat Alabama, and convincingly. They want Houston to beat Cincinnati. They want Iowa to beat Michigan. Win and get one of those last two to happen, they’re in. Win and get that first one to happen, they’re probably in.
If Oklahoma State loses to Baylor, they’re probably still going to a New Year’s Six bowl, but they’d like Oregon to beat Utah and lock themselves into the Rose Bowl, just to be safe (it would be wild for Oklahoma State to fall behind Oregon, but who the hell knows, given how the committee’s treated Oregon so far this season—also, we’re erring on the side of telling you more things to pull for, rather than fewer, so our apologies if that isn’t what you want).
Rooting Interests: Notre Dame
Notre Dame isn’t all that likely to jump an 11-2 Alabama, making their primary foci Baylor beating Oklahoma State and Iowa beating Michigan. Of course, they’d also prefer Alabama to lose to Georgia, and to lose by a lot, and they’d like Houston to beat Cincinnati to open up another spot that way.
On that last note: Notre Dame is extremely likely to stay ahead of Ohio State, but it’s not a full-on guarantee, especially because Ohio State would be rather significantly favored on a neutral field, something the committee is undoubtedly aware of. Notre Dame, then, is a big fan of Utah tonight, and while Houston winning is good for Notre Dame in that it opens up a playoff spot, Cincinnati winning could help them hold off Ohio State if the field is clearly Georgia, Cincinnati, Alabama and a fourth.
Like Michigan and Alabama, Notre Dame is on board the WKU/ULL/Utah State train, looking for a ranked win of their own, but given the comparison might be with Alabama, it might not help as much as it sounds like it would.
The final piece here, and this is kind of silly, is that if the committee’s staying up late arguing and voting and Notre Dame’s a topic of discussion, USC obliterating Cal on the TV’s in front of them could help the Irish, or at least not hurt them. It’s better than USC struggling.
Rooting Interests: Ohio State
Ohio State’s reason to hope lies in the fact that most predictive rating systems would have them as one of the three best teams in the country (“predictive” is an important word there) and the committee’s told to select the best teams. For that to matter, they’ll need Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, and Michigan to all lose, preferably by a lot in the case of Cincinnati and Michigan. They don’t want Baylor to look too good, because Baylor could theoretically jump them (our model doesn’t think it’ll happen, but the committee likes Power Five champions), and their interests with Oregon probably rely on the Ducks winning, to make that loss less damaging, but if the Ducks win they may jump Ohio State back. It’s a long shot for them to even have a shot, and that shot will likely go to 11-2 Michigan over them, but they can hope.
Also, they’re on the UTSA/ULL/San Diego State side of the mid-major games in their efforts to keep Notre Dame from having a ranked win and to keep Michigan from having an additional ranked win. That probably takes precedent over getting Purdue into the top 25 for their own sake.
Rooting Interests: Mississippi
Mississippi’s situation’s relatively simple, as far as these things go. If Alabama makes the playoff, Mississippi goes to the Sugar Bowl and plays Oklahoma State or Baylor (Baylor would be preferable if they want a win). If Alabama doesn’t make the playoff, they go to the Peach Bowl or the Fiesta Bowl and play Notre Dame or Pitt or Wake Forest or Michigan State or BYU or maybe Cincinnati or Oklahoma State or Baylor in some real weird scenarios. In other words, not a lot for them unless they have a preference (my preference, were I them, would be to play Notre Dame in the Peach Bowl for maximum notoriety).
Rooting Interests: Baylor
Baylor’s reason to hope lies in their status as the possible two-loss Power Five champion that’s currently ranked the highest. With that established, they want Michigan and Cincinnati to lose, opening up a huge argument over the fourth spot, and they want Utah to beat Oregon to keep Oregon out of it and drag Ohio State (and potentially Michigan and then Iowa, by extension) downwards. They’d like Georgia to beat Alabama, though they probably won’t pass the Tide, and on the fringes, they want UTSA, San Diego State, and Appalachian State to all win to make sure Notre Dame doesn’t have a ranked win; to potentially push Texas A&M out of the rankings, hurting Alabama; and to keep Michigan and Ohio State from having ranked wins over Wisconsin and/or Purdue, respectively. Our model does not think Baylor can pass Ohio State, let alone Michigan or Notre Dame or Alabama, but Baylor is free to hope.
Rooting Interests: Oregon
Oregon’s reason to hope lies in how much the committee loves them. They’re pulling for the exact same scenario as Baylor, except they want to win themselves.
Rooting Interests: Michigan State
Michigan State will likely stay ahead of BYU in the rankings, but if the committee does reconsider that, Michigan State would prefer Oregon to have beaten Utah, harming the Cougars, who beat Utah head-to-head. This spot in the rankings is important because it looks likely to be the New Year’s Six cutoff, and Michigan State would like to hold on to their place in the spotlight. Other things that would help that effort include Baylor smoking Oklahoma State (potentially knocking Oklahoma State down below the Spartans while sending Baylor to the Sugar Bowl), Oregon beating Utah (we already mentioned this, but it would help directly by making sure Oregon goes to the Rose Bowl, rather than potentially another NY6 game), Michigan beating Iowa (helps MSU’s résumé and also keeps Iowa from the Rose Bowl, sending Ohio State there instead and keeping an NY6 spot open), and Cincinnati beating Houston (keeps the AAC from potentially getting a second NY6 spot).
Rooting Interests: BYU
BYU will likely stay behind Michigan State in the rankings, but they would love for Utah to demolish Oregon tonight, just in case. They’d also like Cincinnati to hold off Houston, Baylor to destroy Oklahoma State (same Baylor-to-the-Sugar-Bowl-and-Oklahoma-State-out-of-the-NY6 scenario MSU’s hoping on), and Michigan to beat Iowa.
Rooting Interests: Iowa
Iowa’s reason to hope lies in the fact that of the potential two-loss Power Five champions, they have the highest-ranked opponent remaining. Should they beat Michigan, it could be considered the best win in the country. For it to matter for the playoff, they’ll need and prefer the exact scenario described for Baylor above, and they’ll want the Big 12 game to have been quite ugly.
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What’s going to happen? Again, we talked about that on Wednesday (link), but the most likely scenario is that we get Georgia playing Oklahoma State in the Orange Bowl, Michigan playing Cincinnati in the Cotton Bowl, Alabama playing Baylor in the Sugar Bowl, Ohio State playing Utah in the Rose Bowl, and then maybe Mississippi/Notre Dame in the Peach Bowl and Pitt/Michigan State in the Fiesta Bowl? Maybe Oregon gets that Fiesta Bowl spot ahead of MSU.
Overall, the viewing schedule goes Pac-12 tonight, Big 12 in tomorrow’s noon hour, SEC in the afternoon slot unless you’re pulling for Cincinnati to win or lose (in which case watch the AAC), and the Big Ten in primetime. After that, do yourself a favor and ignore the speculation, unless you enjoy hearing idiotic takes (there will be idiotic takes). Read our post from Wednesday again. And come back on Sunday morning to hear our thoughts (and our model’s final thoughts) before the selections are announced.
