Patrick Wisdom’s season is over, (Possibly because of Covid? It’s unclear.) with Trent Giambrone coming up yesterday to replace him on the active roster. Giambrone, for those wondering, isn’t on the 40-man as of right now, meaning he isn’t really a part of that crunch conversation except he could be exposed to the Rule 5 Draft? I think so, but I don’t know if anyone would take him. We’ll circle back to that next month. Wisdom’s our focus today.
The 30-year-old rookie was one of the brightest parts of a generally sad 2021 season for the Cubs, breaking out with 28 home runs in more than half a season’s worth of plate appearances and finishing with a 115 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR, and .319 xwOBA. Presumably, Wisdom will be a big part of next year’s team, and one would guess that if all goes well health-wise he’ll be in next year’s starting lineup, either at third base or as the designated hitter (I’m getting way too in-the-weeds here, but you’d expect the outfield to be a bit more crowded than the corner infield given what the Cubs have now). The questions, then, are these:
How good will he be? Can he keep getting away with his league-high strikeout rate? Can he keep clubbing home runs at a league-leading rate? (Wisdom is effectively tied with Salvador Perez in HR/PA) Will the defense keep grading out positively, at least via FanGraphs?
I have no idea about that last one. Let me be clear on that. No idea at all. We’ve got a long way to go as a baseball media complex in adequately measuring defense. For those wondering, my best understanding is that something like 0.7 of Wisdom’s 2.2 fWAR comes from defense, with the other 1.5 coming from his offensive performance, meaning if he put together the same defensive value as an everyday third baseman, he’d have something like 1.2 defensive fWAR off of which to base his value. That’s a lot. I’m not sure you should bank on that from Wisdom.
On the offensive side, I’m not sure you should bank on too much value either. That .319 xwOBA points concerningly towards an average hitter on the aggregate, and average hitters playing third base with Wisdom’s defensive value can be expected to land somewhere in the 1.2-fWAR range on the offensive side.
That’s actually pretty promising. Even if Wisdom’s league-average at the plate and replacement-level defensively (which isn’t likely), he should be more than a win better than a replacement-level guy, all for the league minimum, and all with sufficient options to allow him to go back down to AAA should the Cubs somehow get deep enough on the position player side of the roster for that to be a desire.
On the upside, it’s even better. This is kind of wild, but Wisdom’s 2021 performance, extrapolated over a full season’s worth of playing time, mirrors that of a specific someone who is rather good. A specific someone who is rather great, actually. One of the highest-paid players in baseball.
Nolan Arenado also posted a 115 wRC+ this year. Nolan Arenado actually posted a worse xwOBA, at .311. Nolan Arenado posted comparable defensive numbers, on FanGraphs (important distinction), to Wisdom when adjusting for sample. Now, yes, Nolan Arenado had a down year. But Nolan Arenado has also been worth 4.0 fWAR.
Wisdom could be worse than that 1.2-fWAR number we’d get from league-average offense and replacement-level defense. His FanGraphs projections range from 82 to 95 in the wRC+ department, the bottom end of which gets you pretty close to overall replacement-level. Presumably, he could underperform those projections, and if you say he could underperform them by the same amount he’s overperformed them this year, that opens the window for a negative 2.8-fWAR year at the plate if allowed to hit badly for a full season (which wouldn’t happen—the Cubs would stop that).
Overall, the most reasonable expectations listed here for Wisdom are 1) the one where he’s league-average on offense and replacement-level on defense and 2) the one where he’s replacement-level on offense and good on defense. Each of those, coincidentally, lands with him at 1.2 fWAR, which—as we’ve said—is great for the Cubs’ purposes.
FanGraphs will have their own projections out in the next couple months, but as you’re looking for the 35 WAR or so the Cubs will probably need to contend in the division, you can pencil Wisdom in for one of them, at the median. The error bars are wide, but the most likely outcome for 2022 Patrick Wisdom is to be a productive every day player, albeit one in the bottom half of the lineup.
Other notes from yesterday:
- Kyle Hendricks had one of his best starts of the year, striking out five and walking one over five innings of work.
- Trayce Thompson crushed a double.
- Willson Contreras came through with a crushed, timely double of his own, and was on base an additional time.
- Rafael Ortega and Frank Schwindel were each on base thrice, with Schwindel also doubling.
- Ian Happ reached base twice, doubling once to keep his wRC+ at 101.
- Nick Martini drew three walks. David Bote drew two.
- Giambrone singled in his lone plate appearance and is now batting 1.000 as a big-leaguer.
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The Diaspora:
Javy Báez doubled last night for the Mets. Jorge Soler was on base four times for Atlanta. Kris Bryant drove in the game’s only run in a San Francisco win. Andrew Chafin took the loss for the A’s as they were mathematically eliminated.
Around the Division:
The Cardinals’ winning streak finally ended, making these last few games all just tune-ups for them. It was announced that Devin Williams fractured his hand and will likely miss the entire postseason after the Brewers’ stud reliever evidently punched a wall during the division-clinchment celebration. Arenado will officially not opt out of his deal with St. Louis.
Up Next:
The last game against the Pirates. Justin Steele’s last start of the year.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Pittsburgh
When:
5:35 PM Chicago Time
Where:
PNC Park
Weather:
Looks like another nice one. Temperatures in the 60’s, wind blowing lightly out.
Starting Pitchers:
Justin Steele vs. Miguel Yajure
The Opponent:
Yajure is a top-100 prospect making his seventh MLB appearance tonight and his third start. He has a 3.60 ERA over twenty career innings, but only a 6.42 FIP. He, like Roansy Contreras last night, came over from the Yankees in the Jameson Taillon trade.
The Numbers:
We’re even, with the consensus at -105 for each side. The over/under’s at 8½ and favors the over.
Cubs News:
Nothing too big beyond Giambrone’s promotion.
Cubs Thoughts:
We’ve gotten a nice sample out of Steele, and while there have been good moments, it hasn’t been very good. In eight starts, he’s got a 6.82 FIP. He’s flashed enough effectiveness and was strong enough out of the bullpen that a multi-inning relief role makes sense for next year, but he’s not a good option for the 2022 rotation, and that’s fine. That’s why you get a nice sample out of a guy.
