1. You win some.
The Cubs avoided the sweep, something they’ve managed to do in every series bar the two-game set in Cleveland. They exit the weekend and turn the corner on the road trip with a share of first place, and with the Cardinals suddenly reeling two and a half games back. They’re 6-4 in their last ten and seven of those have been against teams with the two best records in the National League. Things are going well.
2. Javy Báez is an injury concern again.
That said, one Javier Báez did leave the game with thumb and wrist soreness. Hopefully it isn’t anything serious. Or mild, even. Hopefully it just isn’t anything.
3. Patrick Wisdom is on a tear.
Stu made this joke before I did, but do you think Patrick Wisdom was sitting at AAA thinking, “Why the hell am I in AAA?”
To be fair, Wisdom had 28 collectively bad plate appearances for the Rangers in 2019, and his career minor league numbers aren’t spectacular. To also be fair, Wisdom destroyed the ball in 58 plate appearances for St. Louis in 2018, and through just 36 PA’s, or slightly more than one twentieth of a full season for an everyday player in the heart of the lineup, Wisdom has amassed 1.1 fWAR. Among hitters with 36 or more PA’s, he’s one of just three with a wRC+ of 200 or higher, and his is 300. He’s 61st among all hitters in WPA, and that’s a counting stat. He’s second among Cubs hitters in WPA, and again, that’s a counting stat. It hasn’t gone on very long. But if I understand wRC+ correctly, Wisdom could make outs in each of his next 36 PA’s and still be an above-average hitter by the numbers. The guy has to have some dirt on the fates.
4. Kyle Hendricks might have been tipping pitches again.
Ron Coomer suggested this, and it makes sense given the amount of damage done to changeups. Still, Hendricks turned in a quality start, and the only bullpenner likely to be unavailable tonight is Ryan Tepera.
5. Kris Bryant made a big catch.
I think the last person I said this about was Nico Hoerner: We need a WPA stat for defensive plays.
***
Around the Division:
The Brewers finished a sweep of the Diamondbacks, winning 2-0. The Cardinals scored seven in the sixth to tie the Reds up, but lost in the ninth, 8-7.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
T-1. Milwaukee: 33-26, 56.6%
T-1. Cubs: 33-26, 23.4%
3. St. Louis: 31-29, 10.0%
4. Cincinnati: 28-29, 9.9%
5. Pittsburgh: 23-35, 0.0%
Everyone’s off tonight (well, 24 of the 30 MLB teams are off tonight), but the Brewers start a series in Cincinnati tomorrow while the Cardinals prepare to host Cleveland for two.
And before we move on: How medium is the Cardinals’ roster, especially with injuries? They’re a game and a half ahead of the Reds but even with them in division championship chances.
Up Next:
Three in San Diego before a couple weeks East of the Mississippi.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. San Diego
When:
9:10 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Petco Park
Weather:
Lovely, of course, as this is San Diego we’re talking about, but as far as the wind goes: Blowing out towards right at five to ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Adbert Alzolay vs. Ryan Weathers
The Opponent:
Since we last saw the Padres, they’ve split four with the Mets. Austin Nola, Drew Pomeranz, and Trent Grisham remain sidelined. There was some confusion about Grisham’s IL dates but it’s appearing unlikely he’ll be seen much this week, if at all, given he’ll evidently need a rehab stint after not playing for two and a half weeks.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are a +108 underdog with the Padres at -118, so something like a 44% chance of a win. Over/under’s at eight and favors the under.
Cubs News:
Joc Pederson might be back soon, but Weathers is a lefty so don’t be surprised if he doesn’t start tonight. No word on when Jake Marisnick might be activated. Jordan Bastian and the Cubs’ mlb.com guys evidently keep a good injury tracker updated over there, so that’s a helpful link at the moment.
Crane Kenney did a radio interview today that pissed some folks off because he implied the Cubs might not have very much money, due to the pandemic, when they do presumably have a lot of money (it’s a bit suspect when the books aren’t open and there’s such creative ownership of assets like the park and the adjoining real estate) and attendance is going better than was expected this winter. That all said, Kenney did say that money won’t be a trade deadline constraint, which is consequential and big and encouraging.
Cubs Thoughts:
The Cubs have to face Dinelson Lamet and Yu Darvish the next two games, with Zach Davies up against Lamet and Jake Arrieta opposing Darvish. Tonight, then, is probably the game for which the Cubs will be the smallest underdogs. Make of that what you will.
The Brewers won’t be throwing Brandon Woodruff or Corbin Burnes in Cincinnati, so in the immediate term, there’s a mild chance they’ll cool off (and the Reds might continue to heat up), which makes it easier to just look at the month as a whole, and to get to that 45-36 number we’ve been targeting for the end of June, the Cubs could put up the following splits:
San Diego/New York/Los Angeles: 5-6
St. Louis/Cleveland/Milwaukee: 5-3
Miami: 2-1
If the Cubs can win this series, those first two numbers could change to 4-4 and 4-4, but the point stands: The Cubs are still on track to enter July a playoff contender. And if you want to look a little too far ahead, the Cubs play the Diamondbacks six times in July and play only seven games against teams currently sporting winning records, a number that could be zero if the Cardinals drop a few more.
