Sports can be torturous, and baseball’s daily nature makes it among the most torturous of them all. In football, a bad loss happens quickly and definitively. Alabama lost to Texas? Bad. The Bills lost to Zach Wilson’s Jets? Bad. In baseball, hardly any bad losses occur in a vacuum. The sport’s too unpredictable in small samples for that.
When bad losses do occur in baseball, they occur in bunches. They add up. They become more and more frustrating with every passing day and all the more maddening when they’re punctuated with brief breaths of hope. In kind fashion towards their fans, the Blue Jays didn’t punctuate this week’s sweep with any signs of optimism. While we all sat in to watch the Rangers’ collapse accelerate, the Blue Jays twisted the plot: The Toronto Blue Jays lost four straight games at home and fell multiple games out of playoff position.
Here’s the week, in its totality, and what looms over the weekend ahead.
The Stars
Corey Seager and Robbie Grossman were a busy 1–2 punch, going a combined 16-for-29 over the series in Canada and driving in a combined eleven runs. For Grossman, a 33-year-old whose hitting has steadily dropped since a strong 2020 and 2021, the breakout could hardly have come at a better time. The Rangers may have lost Max Scherzer this week, but if there’s any continued performance like this from Grossman, their lineup just got a needed boost of depth.
Across the AL West, Julio Rodríguez had another good series himself, going 7-for-12 as the Mariners rallied back from Monday’s loss to take two of three from the Angels. It was nearly a sweep, in hindsight, with the loss on Monday coming after Aaron Loup wriggled out of a bases-loaded, no-out jam, keeping the score tied after three Mariners singles led off the bottom of the ninth.
Bryce Harper did some big things for the Phillies, homering twice—both times in the late innings—as Philadelphia played a set of thrillers against Atlanta. Unfortunately for the Phils, neither long ball was enough to secure the win, with the franchise setting some real records for wasted late-inning heroics.
On the mound, Brandon Woodruff played hero for Milwaukee, tossing a complete-game shutout on Monday after the Brewers expended a lot of bullpen in Sunday’s near-no-hitter against the Yankees. The outing set the Brewers up for a 3–1 series victory over the Marlins which extended their NL Central lead to four and a half and pushed them up to 82 wins on the year.
The Series
On the National League side of things:
- Atlanta took three of four in Philadelphia, clinching the NL East.
- The Dodgers dropped two of three at home to the Padres, who are in an inconsequential but tight race with the Pirates and Mets for 10th place.
- The Brewers took those three of four from the Marlins, who lost some ground in the Wild Card picture and lost Sandy Alcantara, possibly for the year.
- The Cubs lost two of three in Colorado, blowing an opportunity to put 5th place away and place some pressure on the Phillies for home-field advantage in the opening playoff round.
- The Giants won two of three over Cleveland, stretching their record to 5–1 since the six-game losing streak.
- Arizona lost three of four in Queens, with the Mets managing to plate a troubling seven against Merrill Kelly in the finale.
- The Reds won two of three in Detroit, continuing their improbable playoff push even as their rotation turns into desperation by committee.
In the AL:
- The Orioles dropped two of three to the visiting Cardinals, opening the door for the Rays in the AL East.
- The Rays took two of three in Minnesota, setting the stage for a big weekend series against the Orioles.
- Houston dropped two of three in Oakland, further fueling the rekindling of the Rangers’ hopes.
- The Rangers won all four in Toronto, stretching their winning streak to six while scoring an average of 8.75 runs per game.
- Seattle won two of three in Anaheim, landing in 6th place in the AL when all was said and done.
The Situation
In the competitive divisions, this all created the following movement:
The Rays gained a game on the Orioles, closing the gap to two games before taking the opener last night, which now has the pair tied in the win column and two losses apart, the Orioles leading but needing to do good things to hold on.
The Rangers gained two and a half games on the Astros, and the Mariners gained a game, leaving the AL West as follows:
1. Houston: 83–64
2. Texas: 82–64
3. Seattle: 81–65
…
In the Wild Card picture, the Blue Jays dropped four games compared to the Rangers and 2.5 on Seattle, leaving Toronto 1.5 games out of playoff position and the race looking like this:
…
5. Texas: 82–64
6. Seattle: 81–65
7. Toronto: 80–67
…
In the National League, the divisions are probably set, but the Giants and Reds gained ground while everyone else lost it, leaving the Wild Card in the following scene:
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4. Philadelphia: 79–67
5. Chicago: 78–69
6. San Francisco: 75–71
7. Arizona: 76–72
8. Cincinnati: 76–72
9. Miami: 75–72
…
This weekend in the AL, the Orioles are hosting the Rays for those four while the Astros play three in Kansas City, the Rangers play three in Cleveland, the Mariners host the Dodgers for three, and the Blue Jays try to get on track during three at home against Boston.
In the NL, the Brewers have three in Milwaukee against the Nationals, the Phillies play three on the road in St. Louis, the Cubs are in Arizona for a high-leverage three-game set, the Giants are in Colorado for four games (doubleheader tomorrow, rainout last night), the Reds are in Queens for three, and the Marlins have three against the Braves at home. The Braves are seven and a half up on the Dodgers for the NL 1-seed and five up on the Orioles for the overall best record in baseball.
The Weekend’s Best Games
All weekend, you could make a case for Rays–Orioles as the game to watch, with whoever wins that division likely capturing the AL 1-seed and whoever loses having to play a Wild Card Series against the AL West’s second-best team. Tonight, an alternative is Dodgers–Mariners, where Bobby Miller faces George Kirby. Tomorrow, Rangers–Guardians should be good, with Dane Dunning opposite Tanner Bibee. Sunday, it’s Braves–Marlins, Charlie Morton taking the mound against Jesús Luzardo. The Cubs and the Diamondbacks are playing the Sunday night game.
Who’s Hot
Since September began, it’s actually the Yankees who sport the best record in baseball, at 9–4. (Nobody wants to make the playoffs, I guess.) Since August 1st, it’s the Dodgers by half a game over Atlanta, with Los Angeles 29–12 and the Braves 29–13.
Among position players, Matt Olson leads the majors in production since September 1st, sporting eight home runs on the month and a ridiculous .918 slugging percentage. For pitchers, Justin Steele’s been the best over everyone’s last three starts, though Pete Fairbanks has been making his presence felt out of the bullpen, striking out 15 of the last 22 batters he’s faced and allowing just three to reach base.
Things to Watch
A few thoughts:
- How’s that doubleheader tomorrow going to impact the Giants, who’ve leaned on their bullpen more heavily than any team in baseball? Notably, San Francisco does have Monday off.
- Is anyone going to fall off in the race for the NL Wild Card, or are we going to have to start exploring four-team and five-team tiebreaker scenarios?
- The Rangers are only three games above .500 on the road, but they’ve now won six of their last seven away from home. Can they keep that run going in Cleveland?
- With Atlanta having clinched, are they going to rest any of their guys? What about Ronald Acuña Jr., who’s facing some pressure from Mookie Betts in the NL MVP race?
- Steele, currently seen by bettors as the second guy in a two-man NL Cy Young race, pitches tonight in Arizona. Blake Snell, the narrow favorite to win the award, isn’t set to pitch again until Tuesday. Will Steele make the race tighter or yield more ground to Snell?
- The Dodgers could clinch the NL West with a sweep and one Giants loss, or with a similar combination. Their magic number is four against the Giants and three against the Diamondbacks.
- Everyone could use a series win this weekend, but the Blue Jays and Reds need theirs the most, with the Blue Jays sitting the furthest out of playoff position of anyone still in the race and the Reds the second-least likely, per FanGraphs, to capture a playoff spot. The Marlins are slightly less likely than the Reds, but that prices in their tough matchup with Atlanta. Cincinnati has a better weekend draw, playing the Mets. That makes it one they more badly need to win.
