What Derek Holland brings to the Cubs

The Cubs acquired Derek Holland and cash yesterday in exchange for cash (it’s unclear how much cash the Cubs are sending the Giants, and when, but they’re paying very little of Holland’s remaining salary this year). He joins the team today.

Holland used to be a starter. In fact, he was always a starter until he went to San Francisco last year and they started using him out of the ‘pen now and then. Eventually, they decided his value was either too great as a reliever (not likely) or too detrimental as a starter (more likely) to justify keeping him in the rotation, and he’s been in the bullpen full-time since May.

As a reliever, he hasn’t been great. He’s got a 5.69 FIP since moving to the bullpen, and in his last outing he allowed four runs on two home runs in just one inning, which was not the first time he’s allowed that many runs to score in a one-inning appearance.

Back in 2013, he was a very good pitcher, with a 3.44 FIP for the Rangers over 33 starts. But at this point, the Cubs aren’t getting much more than another lefty to try out.

Which is where his value comes in.

The Cubs presumably will not be using Holland as much more than a left-handed specialist/mop-up guy. To do so would be counterproductive. But in those roles, Holland does have a chance to be effective.

Since the beginning of 2018, he’s allowed a .214 wOBA to left-handed batters, compared to a .359 wOBA against righties. For context, Javy Báez has a .355 wOBA this season, Daniel Descalso’s is .248, and Kyle Hendricks’ (as a hitter) is .204. In other words, the average right-handed hitter against Holland has gotten something like Javy Báez’s results, whereas the average lefty has hit something like Kyle Hendricks or Daniel Descalso.

Holland isn’t going to be the Cubs’ savior in the bullpen. But he might get some key outs. And as the Cubs try out options for high-leverage situations, his addition is a reason for optimism.

The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. Was asked to do NIT Bracketology in 2018 and never looked back. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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