Aside from Robinson Chirinos continuing to contribute and Kris Bryant continuing to perform well since returning from that side injury, there isn’t a lot from yesterday’s game to talk about. The Cubs lost to the Diamondbacks. They walked eleven batters. They made a little run late, but they’d allowed their hosts to make a bigger run not as late, and here we are. The Cubs are nine games out of first place with eleven games left before the trade deadline (eleven games for the Cubs, that is—the Brewers have just eight left).
So, let’s talk about Zach Davies, whose name keeps getting tossed around as a trade candidate.
Davies is an unusual pitcher. His career FIP, 4.27, is substantially higher than his career ERA, 3.86, and it’s been an even bigger gap than that average in each of the last three years, with his xERA higher still (it’s currently 6.03 against a 4.35 ERA and a 4.86 FIP). In other words, there’s a chance Davies can continue this, but the fact he’s walking almost two batters more per nine innings than he has over his career as a whole and posting a career-worst strikeout rate isn’t encouraging. He’s an unusual pitcher, and he’s pitching unusually relative to himself.
Is he not, you might ask, Kyle Hendricks-adjacent, making FIP less relevant? The similarities are there, sure. Each has a softer touch. Each relies more on control. But Hendricks lacks this walk problem and his xERA has always tracked really closely with his FIP, with the exception of 2016 when his xERA did a lot of the explaining for how he managed a 2.13 ERA over 190 innings.
No, Davies is his own guy, which makes it hard to project a return for him.
The simplest explanation of Davies is that he’s a reliably competent rotation-filler. If your choices are Zach Davies and a swingman, you would prefer Zach Davies. He’s not an innings-eater, but he’ll throw his share, and he more often than not won’t get rocked doing it.
Davies is projected, per FanGraphs, to amass about 0.4 more fWAR over the course of the year. fWAR is, for what it’s worth, built on FIP, which Davies has overperformed, but with the control issue introducing uncertainty over whether continued overperformance should be expected, let’s call it even.
That much WAR, you may remember, is worth about $3M in the traditional understanding of recent free agency, which is coincidentally about how much Davies figures to make over the rest of this season, after which he’ll be a free agent. Using FanGraphs’s understanding of prospect values, that equates to a 40+ pitcher (if this number means nothing to you, that’s ok—40+ basically means the prospect is somewhere between 225ish and 425ish on overall rankings. The Cubs have ten of these guys in their system, comprising slots 10-19 on the FanGraphs rankings, though they’ll be 11-21 once Jordan Wicks is added and James Triantos is signed, should Triantos be signed (I haven’t seen much concern he won’t be signed).
The upshot of that dichotomy is that the Cubs could, in exchange for Davies, get a pitcher who grades out as well as their second pick from the recent draft. Is that correct, though?
To be honest, I don’t know. It’s correct in a projected-WAR-with-future-discounting for projected-WAR-with-future-discounting sense, but it doesn’t take into account the financials (those $3M Davies is still owed) or the desperation of the market. In free agency, WAR is worth about as much to one team as another, especially as you get abstract about seasons beyond the one at hand, but in a pennant race, WAR means different amounts to different teams, and it’s not about wins above a generic replacement as much as it’s about wins above a specific replacement.
Still, this 40+ value (or a pair of less-valuable prospects summing to that equivalent) is encouraging, especially given how sparse the starting pitching market seems to be right now. I’m not aware of another objective, systematic means of measuring trade value, either, beyond just using anecdotes from recent seasons, which narrows the sample size and risks ignoring context. Maybe Davies is worth that good of a prospect. Maybe he’s worth a non-prospect who’ll stick around and provide that sort of near-replacement level value over the next few years. Whatever the Cubs can get out of him, great, because just as wins are worth more in a pennant race (or the postseason), they’re worth a lot less when you’re playing out the string.
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Around the Division:
The Brewers smoked the Reds, finishing off a sweep in Cincinnati and potentially clinching the division in a practical sense. As mentioned above, the Crew has few games left before the deadline, making sparser the paths for anyone catching them. The Reds may soon be sellers, or at least half-sellers. Meanwhile, the Cardinals beat the Giants, 2-1.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee: 56-39, 91.3%
2. Cincinnati: 48-45, 5.6%
T-3. Cubs: 46-47, 1.7%
T-3. St. Louis: 46-47, 1.5%
5. Pittsburgh: 36-57, 0.0%
The Reds host the opener of a set with the Mets tonight. Jerad Eickhoff vs. Vladimir Gutierrez. The Brewers are off, awaiting two midweek games against the Royals.
Up Next:
Four games with the Cardinals.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. St. Louis
When:
7:15 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Busch Stadium
Weather:
Temperatures around eighty degrees, wind blowing in at five to ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Alec Mills vs. Jake Woodford
The Opponent:
Woodford’s making his first major league start of the year, having made just one last season. He’s been almost exclusively a starter in the minors, though, so he’s not an opener, even if he isn’t stretched out to throw all that many innings. He’s got a 5.05 career ERA over just more than 45 innings, and he’s got a 6.63 FIP. His xERA is between the two somewhere.
The Numbers:
Cubs are -110 favorites, Cardinals are at even money, so it’s a little better than a tossup for the visitors. Over/under’s at nine and favors the under.
Cubs News:
The Cubs claimed Frank Schwindel off waivers from the A’s yesterday and optioned him to Iowa. Schwindel’s got just 35 career plate appearances at the major league level, but his minor league numbers are solid. He’s 29 years old and plays first base, so he might just be some organizational depth but he might end up being part of the 1B/DH plan next season, even if Anthony Rizzo’s back, which still seems a safe bet. We’ll see. For the time being, he takes the spot on the 40-man roster opened up by Joc Pederson’s departure.
Cubs Thoughts:
No matter the situation, you want to beat the Cardinals.
