Our bracketology is live again, and to spare you the details if you’d like to be spared them, here are the links:
We are presently running a very, very “lite” version of our bracketology. I wouldn’t even call it a model. We’re using SOR as a representation of what’s been accomplished to date, KenPom as our best indication of what’s left to be added to the team sheet, a discount for mid-majors whom this method would under-seed looking forward, and an adjustment for each team’s median expected final record (if it’s below .500, no NIT; etc.). We’re also doing our standard estimates for who the favorite is in each conference tournament, how likely a bid thief is to materialize in each conference tournament, and which conferences have what probabilities of sending an automatic bid to the NIT.
This is very, very simple, but at this point, two months out, it’s all that’s really necessary to give us a view of who lines up where in the picture, especially on the NIT side. The teams in our NIT Bracketology (right now and in future weeks while we’re still on “lite” mode) are those projected to finish at or above .500 with good enough metrics to be considered.
As always, let us know if you have questions and thoughts. Thanks for visiting The Barking Crow. And stay tuned for updates on the model, which we’re trying to have up and running in full around February 7th. That date is highly tentative.
