We’re All Happy to Be Here: A Wild Card Series Primer

We’re a few hours from the start of playoff baseball, and while plenty of unknowns persist, there’s a lot we do know. Here’s what you should know, or at least what you might want to know as October begins.

For each Wild Card Series, we’re going to share the schedule, pitching matchups, and how to watch. For each team, we’re going to share how they got here, where they want to go, and three guys to watch.

American League Wild Card Series: #3 Houston vs. #6 Detroit

All games in Houston. One asterisk designates a game that will only be played if necessary. Two asterisks designate an unconfirmed starter.

The schedule:

• Game 1: Tuesday, 2:32 PM EDT (ABC)
• Game 2: Wednesday, 2:32 PM EDT (ABC)
• Game 3*: Thursday, TBD (TBD)

The starters:

• Game 1: Tarik Skubal (DET) vs. Framber Valdez (HOU)
• Game 2: Bullpen** vs. Yusei Kikuchi** (HOU)
• Game 3*: Bullpen** vs. Hunter Brown** (HOU)

I have no idea what the Tigers are going to do for starting pitching after Tarik Skubal. I’m not sure the Tigers know. They traded Jack Flaherty to Los Angeles at the trade deadline, sitting a handful of games under .500. Now, they have the presumed Cy Young winner and a cabinet full of utility tools. They can get a lot of innings from a lot of places, but we don’t know to which places A.J. Hinch will turn.

For the Astros, the unknown at the moment (and this might be cleared up very soon) is whether Joe Espada will call on Yusei Kikuchi or Hunter Brown for Game 2. There are advantages to each, including some that have to do with rest for the Division Series, but ultimately, it’s one of those decisions that is only hard because the options are comparable.

How the Astros got here:

These playoffs are full of teams who got off to slow starts, so it’s fitting that we begin with a group who trailed in their division by ten games in the middle of June. At the time, thoughts that the Astros would pull it together centered on the idea that the team would round into form. Brown and Alex Bregman had both started the year atrociously. They’d figure it out, Justin Verlander would come back from the IL, and Kyle Tucker would keep contending for the AL MVP. That was how the thinking went. What happened instead was that Tucker broke his leg by fouling a ball off his shin, Verlander spent months on the IL and came back lacking, and the turnaround happened anyway. Brown and Bregman did both round into form, with surges from Yordan Alvarez (expected), Yainer Diaz (not expected to that extent), and Spencer Arrighetti (entirely unexpected) helping Houston whiz past the offensively challenged Mariners to win the West by a few games.

Where the Astros want to go:

When you’ve won two World Series more recently than any other franchise, the desperation isn’t there as much as it is for the Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, and Guardians. The Astros would like to do well, sure. But this year isn’t a failure if they don’t win it all again. A fifth pennant in eight years would leave customers satisfied, but I’m not sure it’ll even take that much. Despite Bregman’s likely offseason departure and Verlander’s potential retirement, I don’t get the sense there’s all that much urgency in Houston. The goal is to make their eighth straight ALCS. If they don’t win it, I don’t think anyone in that part of Texas will be tremendously upset.

Three Astros to know:

It’s hard to limit ourselves to three, given how much star power this team’s everpresent playoff nature has generated. Our best attempt, though, includes…

• Yordan Alvarez: The Astros slugger only has twelve home runs in his 58 career playoff games, the postseason equivalent of a 34-homer season. For some reason—maybe because the playoffs bring the best pitchers out as well—it feels like a lot more. Alvarez sprained his knee a week and a half ago. He’s on the roster, but we don’t know if he’ll play, and if he does play we don’t know how close he is to full strength.
• Kyle Tucker: He’s not as well-known as Bregman or Jose Altuve, much younger than that wave of stars. But over the last four years, he’s been every bit as good as them. He’s been getting a good amount of rest since returning from that shin fracture, but the appearance is that it’s been precautionary and that he’s ready for full-time baseball. There’s plenty of rest built into October for hitters anyway. It’s the pitchers who sometimes suffer.
• Josh Hader: After years of strict refusals to jeopardize his health by accepting aggressive usage, Hader signed his big contract this offseason and told the Astros he was game for whatever they need. There’s a risk here where overuse can limit effectiveness, but expect to see a lot of late-innings Hader if the Astros take a run.

How the Tigers got here:

The Astros were ten games back in the division in the middle of June. The Tigers were ten games back in the Wild Card race more than a week into August. The Astros’ comeback was impressive but not surprising. The Tigers’ comeback came out of nowhere. One day, this team was 55–63. Less than two months later, they’re ten games over .500 and opening the playoffs against the most successful franchise of the last decade. How’d they do it? A little bit of luck and a lot of good pitching. Their hitting has been solid but not spectacular. Their ERA’s been the best in the league over the last 45 games. Eleven different Tigers pitchers have thrown more than ten innings in those 45 games with a sub-4.00 ERA. Nearly every game is by committee, and in a development corporate America should study for decades, the committee is getting things done.

Where the Tigers want to go:

They’re happy to be here. That isn’t to say that they don’t want to win, but nothing can be viewed as failure for this Tigers team.

Three Tigers to know:

• Tarik Skubal: The best pitcher in the American League this year by a wide margin, Skubal’s been excellent for the better part of the last three years. Thanks to a flexor tendon surgery midway through 2022, this is his first full season pitching at this level. He didn’t quite reach 200 innings—he finished at 192, his last start skipped to rest him for today—but he’s an ace. A bona fide ace. The kind of ace who makes a three-game series very interesting. For the laypeople among you, he’s basically Paul Skenes but more proven.
• Riley Greene: A top prospect when he debuted in 2022, Greene has lived up to the hype so far. He’s the bat the Tigers count on most heavily, a mainstay at 3^rd or 4^th in the lineup. He’s no Alvarez (or Tucker or maybe even Bregman or Altuve), but he’s the bat the Tigers are most hoping will come through this week.
• A.J. Hinch: One of the few people punished for the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, Hinch landed the Tigers job once his one-year suspension was complete. I don’t think anyone ever seriously blamed him for the Tigers’ struggles the last few years—this rebuild has been a long one—and now he gets a lot of the credit for keeping the clubhouse focused even when the season looked to be over. Today, he opens a preseason series against the team he managed in so many.

American League Wild Card Series: #4 Baltimore vs. #5 Kansas City

All games in Baltimore. One asterisk designates a game that will only be played if necessary. Two asterisks designate an unconfirmed starter.

The schedule:

• Game 1: Tuesday, 4:08 PM EDT (ESPN2)
• Game 2: Wednesday, 4:38 PM EDT (ESPN)
• Game 3*: Thursday, TBD (TBD)

The starters:

• Game 1: Cole Ragans (KC) vs. Corbin Burnes (BAL)
• Game 2: Seth Lugo (KC) vs. Zach Eflin** (BAL)
• Game 3*: Michael Wacha (KC) vs. Dean Kremer** (BAL)

We don’t know that the Orioles will go with Eflin in Game 2 or Kremer in a hypothetical Game 3. We would be very surprised, though, if they turn to Cade Povich, their likely fourth starter at the moment.

How the Orioles got here:

After a strong second-half run in 2022 and a magical 2023 regular season, the Orioles entered 2024 as one of five playoff contenders in the American League East. Quickly, they rose to prominence, with Gunnar Henderson an early MVP contender and Jackson Holliday’s debut one of the most hyped in a few years. Holliday never quite figured out major league pitching, though, and Henderson was merely a great hitter over the second half, and the Orioles ended up with three different starters on the IL by the end of the year, two of them undergoing Tommy John surgery in June. This team went 40–41 over the back half of the season and whiffed on most of their trade deadline moves. They did enough in the first half to still comfortably make the playoff field.

Where the Orioles want to go:

Despite earning the AL 1-seed last fall after winning 101 games, the Orioles went three-and-out in the Division Series, dropping three straight to the Rangers. The narrative centered on poor hitting, but their 3.75 runs per game were far from the lowest in the postseason. Either way, they want to make some progress this year. They want to at least get to the ALDS again and give themselves a shot at the Yankees.

Three Orioles to know:

• Adley Rutschman: You can’t talk about the Baltimore renaissance without talking about Adley Rutschman. He’s not as good a hitter as Henderson, but he can hit, and he’s more importantly a heck of a catcher, the best in the game since debuting early in 2022. Since he reached the majors, the Orioles have been a good team. That isn’t all him, but he’s a lot of the equation.
• Colton Cowser: Those aren’t boos. They’re moos. Seriously. Because his name begins with “Cow.” The Orioles’ left fielder, Cowser might win Rookie of the Year. He’s a man so strong that he switched to a bigger bat halfway through the season in order to help his body stay back on off-speed pitches. It’s unclear to me if The Pasture—Camden Yards’ Cowser-themed section where fans dress up as Holsteins—is an every night thing, but don’t be surprised to see some udders out there today.
• Anthony Santander: Henderson is the best player on the Orioles, but Santander has the biggest vibes. Second in the AL in home runs, Santander is power all over the place, and while he’s often home run or nothing, he still didn’t strike out as often this season as Shohei Ohtani or Aaron Judge. If you’re looking for moments, Santander holds the potential to make big ones.

How the Royals got here:

Honestly, this might have been more impressive than the Tigers making it. The Royals lost 106 games last year. In what might be the greatest turnaround in baseball history, they lost only 76 times this year, and while their playoff berth is at least in some respects a benefit of playoff expansion, they’re here, aren’t they?

Kansas City struggled down the stretch, hampered by a few factors, one of which was an injury to Vinnie Pasquantino (who will return today). They pulled it together in time to hold off the Mariners and leave the Twins for dead. How’d they make that a possibility in the first place? Partly through an offseason spent acquiring reasonably priced veterans like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. It also doesn’t hurt to have the three guys we’ll talk about down below, two of whom are among the best young players in the game.

Where the Royals want to go:

I’m not sure if Royals fans still have the delusional streak they earned in the mid-2010’s. They are probably, like the Tigers, happy to be here. They should be! But with so many veterans around and Kauffman Stadium playoff memories still so fresh and happy, they probably want to win this one and get that Division Series opportunity at home.

Three Royals to know:

• Bobby Witt Jr.: Who’s the best player in the American League? Judge. Who’s the most fun? With all due respect to Juan Soto, it’s Bobby Witt Jr. Bobby Witt Jr. is the baseball player every shortstop-aspiring child wants to be. He’s fast. He’s strong. He’s as much a wizard defensively as any other shortstop in the league. Signing Lugo and Wacha helped the Royals a lot. But the biggest thing going for them is and was and will be Witt.
• Cole Ragans: Today’s starter, Ragans finished second to Skubal this season in fWAR. The Royals picked him up midway through last season in a trade with the Rangers, put him in their rotation a few weeks later, and watched as he became one of the best starters in the American League. Again: Veteran pitcher acquisitions who work out are great. But the ceiling is so high for the young guns.
• Salvador Pérez: At least once and I believe twice in the last few years, Salvador Pérez has stopped by a neighborhood wiffleball game in the Kansas City area and picked up a bat. He didn’t lead the league in home runs this year, like he did in 2021, but his offensive rebirth led his age-34 season to be arguably his best in the majors so far, something preposterous for a man who’s spent so much of his life squatting behind home plate. Pérez is the Royals’ heart. Pérez is the Royals’ soul. Pérez was there for the glories of 2014 and 2015. He led them through the wilderness and is now coming out on the other side. Patrick Mahomes means more to his city than Pérez does. But I’m curious how many Kansas Citians would say they love Pérez more.

National League Wild Card Series: #3 Milwaukee vs. #6 New York Mets

All games in Milwaukee. One asterisk designates a game that will only be played if necessary. Two asterisks designate an unconfirmed starter.

The schedule:

• Game 1: Tuesday, 5:32 PM EDT (ESPN)
• Game 2: Wednesday, 7:38 PM EDT (ESPN)
• Game 3*: Thursday, TBD (TBD)

The starters:

• Game 1: Luis Severino (NYM) vs. Freddy Peralta (MIL)
• Game 2: Sean Manaea** (NYM) vs. Frankie Montas** (MIL)
• Game 3*: Jose Quintana** (NYM) vs. Tobias Myers** (MIL)

I may have missed a report, but my impression is that Aaron Civale is still in play as a potential Game 2 or 3 starter for the Brewers as well. Between him, Montas, and Myers…well, the upside is there. There’s plenty of upside in the Brewers’ rotation. Plenty of downside, too, but the upside is present. For the Mets, I don’t get the idea we’ll see David Peterson in a starting role, but I am quite capable of being wrong.

How the Brewers got here:

This was supposed to be the year the Brewers took a step back. The Cubs poached Craig Counsell from the Milwaukee dugout, and the post-David Stearns front office dealt an unhappy Corbin Burnes to Baltimore. The Brewers were expected to be a factor in the NL Central, but they weren’t expected to win 93 games. Then, Rhys Hoskins got into it with the Mets over the opening weekend, and we all started to realize who Pat Murphy is. Over the next couple months, this team had bench-clearing incidents to various extents with an additional handful of teams, largely from the AL East, of all places. With the exception of a few weeks early in the year and a questionable moment or two this summer, Milwaukee dominated the Central, earning their rightful place as the NL 3-seed again this year.

Where the Brewers want to go:

For all Counsell’s success in Milwaukee, he only went 1–5 in postseason series and Wild Card Games. Few if any of these losses came as a heavy favorite, but even in the best era in franchise history, the Brewers have always crapped out. They want to at least win one this year. They don’t need to make it back to the NLCS, but they’re ready for Murphy to get himself on the board.

Three Brewers to know:

• Pat Murphy: It starts with the manager, which is unusual in today’s day and age. Murphy was a college baseball coach for a long time. He’s full of piss and vinegar. Does that familiarity with intensity and double-elimination situations prepare a guy for the playoffs?
• Jackson Chourio: 20 years old and a core Rookie of the Year contender in any other season, Chourio has been a phenomenon. He’s lived up to the hype, and he’s still scratching his potential. With young guys, there’s a conflicting concern/hope regarding how their body will hold up as the season enters a seventh month. On one side, they’re young and should recover quickly. On the other, this is a different length of grind from what they’ve seen before. Samples are so small in October that most narratives are flimsy. Any Chourio fatigue narrative will be just that. But you might hear a bit about his age this week if things don’t go great.
• Devin Williams: With Christian Yelich sidelined, is Devin Williams the most iconic Brewer right now? Hader’s longtime sidekick, Williams is one of the best closers in the league. He missed time early this year, but since his return, there’ve been few concerns.

How the Mets got here:

Yet again. This was improbable.* One year after the best team money could buy finished twelve games under .500, the Mets opened the season terribly, sitting thoroughly underwater as June dawned. Then, in either a hilarious coincidence or a sign that God is entirely behind the queer community, the Mets got hot during Pride month, with McDonald’s mascot/queer icon Grimace becoming a symbol of the team’s success. It’s strange, sure. But you can’t tell the story of the Mets without talking about the Gay Mets, the June development which turned the NL Wild Card picture on its head.

Taking the cosmos and the LGBT community out of it, Francisco Lindor was the biggest reason this team got where it did. And that’s without even getting to yesterday’s doubleheader, where Lindor’s ninth-inning home run won Game 1 and saved Severino for today. Ohtani is more valuable than Lindor. But Lindor made a bigger difference to his team.

*Who was supposed to make the playoffs? Whose meltdowns and underperformances made all these comebacks and surprises possible? A lot of teams who were supposed to be decent but not great: The Rangers, Cubs, and Twins probably top the list in terms of public perception, while the Rays, Cardinals, and Blue Jays were big on-paper disappointments.

Where the Mets want to go:

This is only the team’s second postseason appearance since 2016, when Noah Syndergaard pitched against Madison Bumgarner and Conor Gillaspie broke the scoreless tie with that home run in the top of the ninth. They, like so many others, are probably happy to be here. They pulled it off. They made it.

Three Mets to know:

• Francisco Lindor: He doesn’t get the attention of Judge or Ohtani or Juan Soto or Mookie Betts, probably in part because he doesn’t do as much offensively as that group of hitters. Lindor does a lot offensively, though, and his defensive prowess at shortstop is worth more than we’re accustomed to believing in the post-Moneyball age. Over the last decade, only two players have done more on the baseball field than Francisco Lindor. Those are Betts and Mike Trout, and the gap’s not very large.
• Edwin Díaz: The face of the 2022 Mets campaign, Díaz suffered a freak injury, missed all of last year, and now only shows flashes of what he was that season. This is how it goes with closers. They’re rarely great for long. Díaz might not pitch at all this series, having been called on heavily the last two days to preserve a playoff berth. If he does get in there, the drama will be high. He might not be the pitcher he used to be, but the presence is still there.
• Mark Vientos: Coming into this season, the 24-year-old Vientos was a .205 career hitter in 274 plate appearances. He was a good prospect, but he hadn’t gotten it done over a few opportunities at the MLB level. This year? He’s been the Mets’ second-best hitter, trailing only Lindor. He’s got a lot of veterans around him in the batting order. Behind Lindor, he’s the scariest bat among the group.

National League Wild Card Series: #4 San Diego vs. #5 Atlanta

All games in San Diego. One asterisk designates a game that will only be played if necessary. Two asterisks designate an unconfirmed starter.

The schedule:

• Game 1: Tuesday, 8:38 PM EDT (ESPN)
• Game 2: Wednesday, 8:38 PM EDT (ESPN2)
• Game 3*: Thursday, TBD (TBD)

The starters:

• Game 1: Bullpen** (ATL) vs. Michael King (SD)
• Game 2: Max Fried** (ATL) vs. Joe Musgrove (SD)
• Game 3*: Reynaldo López** (ATL) vs. Dylan Cease (SD)

The Padres are doing something interesting here. Dylan Cease has been the best pitcher on this team this season, and one of the best pitchers in baseball. The Padres are holding him back until Game 3. The appearance is that they think they might be able to sweep this thing, and that they want him starting Game 1 in Los Angeles. Maybe that isn’t the case. Maybe they just like King and Musgrove more. But it’s interesting strategically, and it seems to reveal the Padres’ true objective this month: Win the Southern California championship.

For Atlanta…

Max Fried nearly threw a complete game on Friday. He kept it to 98 pitches, but he’s coming off nearly nine whole innings of work. Will Brian Snitker start him on three days of rest? It’s possible, but it’s doubtful. Unless he wants to throw López on three days’ rest as well (while still building back from an IL stint, and having only this season been converted back to a starter), Snitker’s going to have to navigate a bullpen game at some point. Better to try to steal one today and, in the likely scenario in which Atlanta loses, hope on Fried stepping up tomorrow to give the ‘pen some rest before a rubber match in Game 3.

How the Padres got here:

Having spent aggressively for years, the time came this past offseason to trade away Juan Soto. The Padres were up against some financial limits. They needed salary relief. So, they said goodbye to a generational talent, having failed to turn his presence into a pennant. A few weeks earlier, their owner—the beloved Peter Seidler—had passed away. Times were bleak. Then, in March, the Padres traded a host of prospects for Cease, who is still subject to arbitration (i.e., his contract is cheap) and presumably wasn’t fulfilling his potential with the White Sox, because that’s what happens when players are on the White Sox. In a serious use of a dumb phrase: It was a reload, not a rebuild. It worked. After years of perceived clubhouse struggles, the Padres have held it together this year. Quietly, they bring a star-studded lineup into October baseball.

Where the Padres want to go:

The goal is to beat the Dodgers. A pennant would be great, but if the Padres can eliminate Los Angeles, their mission will have been accomplished. That will require winning this series and winning one more. In the second, they’ll be an underdog.

Three Padres to know:

• Fernando Tatís Jr.: He’s still only 25, even having lived a baseball lifetime. He missed a couple months this summer with a stress fracture, but he came back with a pop, hitting 40% better than the MLB average since his return in early September. Tatís has all the talent in the world, and he’s not shy about showing off his cannon in the outfield.
• Jackson Merrill: Alongside Skenes, Merrill is one of the two primary reasons Jackson Chourio doesn’t have a Rookie of the Year chance. Merrill wasn’t a small deal as a prospect, but he wasn’t expected to be the Padres’ best player. He has been that best player, softening the blow of the Soto trade and multiple injuries. He’s even taken smoothly to center field despite coming up as a shortstop. Merrill is a star in the making.
• Xander Bogaerts: We could talk about a number of guys here, but one to watch is Bogaerts. The third shortstop in the 2022–23 free agent class, Bogaerts hasn’t been as good as Trea Turner or Dansby Swanson, and he hasn’t hit as well as Carlos Correa. Can all that postseason experience from his time in Boston pay off? He’s not a bad player, and he’s been better since returning from a midseason injury, but he isn’t what he used to be. One way to make a bad contract look good is to turn in a strong performance when the leverage is the highest.

How the Braves got here:

Ronald Acuña Jr. got hurt early in the year. Spencer Strider got hurt early in the year. Austin Riley got hurt late in the year. Here the Braves are, having won the second half of yesterday’s Braves/Mets doubleheader to eliminate the Diamondbacks. This is a shell of the preseason World Series contender, but nobody wants to face Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna, and Matt Olson in order, and if Chris Sale can shake off his back spasms, Atlanta will have a likely Cy Young pitcher leading their rotation.

Where the Braves want to go:

Expectations are very low, especially after playing five games in the four days leading up to October, each with the playoffs at stake. They’re happy to be here. Don’t expect them to roll over—one win is all it takes to get going in this format—but they’re yet another team who probably is not expecting to win.

Three Braves to know:

• Marcell Ozuna: He’s got a bad track record off the field. (He allegedly beat his wife in 2021 and was arrested for DUI in 2022 after refusing a breathalyzer.) He was the Braves’ best player on the field this year besides Sale. He’s a total liability defensively, so he mostly DH’s, sending other defensive liabilities into the field in his stead and eliminating half-days off for guys like the next person on this list. But the guy can sure hit the baseball.
• Matt Olson: One of many Braves on a hypothetically team-friendly deal, Olson’s regressed a lot this season from his 54-homer year last summer. He’s not a bad hitter or anything, but an undermentioned aspect of Atlanta’s struggles this year has been Olson’s struggle. If he turns it on this month, that will be happily forgotten in the Southeast.
• Joe Jiménez: Far from the most important Brave, and probably not even the most important pitcher in the Braves’ bullpen, Jiménez could become the most important Brave this series depending on when and if he pitches. He had to pitch twice yesterday—he allowed the three runs in Game 1 which let the Mets back in it, then went again late in Game 2—but he’s been this team’s best reliever this year, and whether they make today a full bullpen game or not, he’ll likely be called upon if close.

**

We’ll be back on Friday when the Division Series matchups are set. That’s where we really get the desperation.