Three thoughts about last night’s Cubs loss:
1. Well, at least the bullpen’s fresh.
Adbert Alzolay threw a great game. The Cubs bats didn’t come through. It was a rough night, made rougher by Yadier Molina getting to play hero, but Alzolay’s start as a blooming bright spot. Big game, big performance, not a complaint in the world about how he pitched.
2. Matt Duffy was (briefly) back.
Duffy was lifted for a pinch hitter, and has evidently been dealing with “bumps and bruises,” but he was back in the starting lineup, which at least feels like progress.
3. What a big game tonight.
Easy to overstate it, but easy to understate it too.
***
Around the Division:
The Brewers got on track, beating the Reds 4-3. The Pirates lost again in Atlanta, 6-1. I didn’t see any big news from either, but I was a little offline.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. St. Louis: 26-19, 35.2%
2. Cubs: 23-22, 20.8%
3. Milwaukee: 22-23, 34.8%
4. Cincinnati: 20-24, 9.1%
5. Pittsburgh: 18-27, 0.1%
Freddy Peralta vs. Luis Castillo in an early game today.
Up Next:
Rubber match.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. St. Louis
Where:
Busch Stadium
When:
6:08 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
A lovely night. Temperatures in the 80’s at gametime, wind blowing out towards the left field foul pole at about five miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Zach Davies vs. Adam Wainwright
The Opponent:
Wainwright’s got his best xERA since 2018, and almost his best in the Statcast era (which began in 2015). It’s at 3.87, with his ERA at 4.63 and his FIP at 4.93. Which basically means, he’s been stranding a lot of runners, but balls in play have been rather soft.
Wainwright’s had a few gems this year, but he’s walked three in each of his last three starts and he only pitched four innings in San Diego last Saturday. He’s pitching on a lot of rest, but at some point, rest has diminishing returns. Anyway, tough opponent.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are at +125 to win and -135 to lose, which comes out to a bit better than a 40% chance of victory. The over/under’s at 8½ and favors the over.
Cubs News:
Alec Mills is going to make a rehab start in Iowa. Trevor Megill is set to throw live batting practice with Iowa himself.
Cubs Thoughts:
Man oh man, it feels like a big one. Hopefully Davies can keep it tight, hopefully the bats can get to Wainwright, hopefully the bullpen’s given a lead to close out. A 5-2 mark on the week would give a good feeling heading into the off day.
