1. Yeah, that was a bad one for Zach Davies.
His velocity was down a little bit on his fastballs, which is something to keep an eye on, but the walks were the bigger concern, and the home runs were the biggest concern. Bad game at a bad time, opening the most winnable series of the month.
2. The Marlins didn’t have to use much pitching.
The Marlins got away with using just a swingman and the back of their bullpen, and the Cubs only scored two runs, with only Joc Pederson doing much of note at the plate. Bad development for today and tomorrow.
***
Around the Division:
Mercifully, the Brewers, Reds, and Cardinals all lost. NL Central!
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Cubs: 39-31, 30.3%
2. Milwaukee: 38-32, 47.8%
3. Cincinnati: 35-33, 14.6%
4. St. Louis: 35-35, 7.3%
5. Pittsburgh: 24-44, 0.0%
The Brewers, for those scoring at home, have now lost games in Denver that Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes started. So don’t too harshly lament missed opportunities.
Adrian Houser vs. Austin Gomber today in the mountains. Vladimir Gutierrez vs. Miguel Diaz (bullpen game) on the coast. Adam Wainwright vs. Drew Smyly in Georgia.
Up Next:
Game 2
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Miami
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Chance of some rain around gametime, with temperatures in the 70’s and wind blowing in from center at about ten miles per hour. Game should get in—just might have a delay.
Starting Pitchers:
Pablo López vs. Jake Arrieta
The Opponent:
López doesn’t get as much noise as some of the other Marlins starters, but he’s got a 3.63 xERA, a 3.42 FIP, and a 3.12 ERA. 1.5 fWAR on the year. And he was comparable last year.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are still -122 favorites, with the Marlins +112 underdogs, so about a 52% chance of a win. Over/under’s at 9½ and favors the under.
Cubs News:
I haven’t seen anything too big, but it’s possible I’ve missed something.
Cubs Thoughts:
Davies does deserve some credit for managing to eat six innings, especially having taken that line drive off the leg in the second. The bullpen, minus Brad Wieck, should be fully available today.
