Week 1 had the headliners, but Week 2 stayed busy the whole way through. Before we walk away from it, we’ve got roughly twenty thoughts and theories provoked by what we saw. As we did last week, we’ll loosely call these thesis statements.
Mark Gronowski has bad numbers for Iowa, but the Hawkeye offense’s problems come from mixing extraordinary caution from the coaching staff with poor execution from the players. Gronowski isn’t a top-half Big Ten quarterback, but there’s a lot missing for the Hawkeyes on that side of the ball.
I know this is a wild homer take, but through three games, Rocco Becht’s throws have been too good for his receivers. He sometimes puts the ball in the only windows where it can go, but those windows are tight enough to still leave a difficult catch. Right now, the receiving corps is limiting Iowa State’s ceiling.
Iowa State made a lot of mistakes and caught a lot of breaks. They’re still the Big 12 favorites in the eyes of our model, and I think our model is right. But with Kansas State crumbling and South Dakota looking awful today, I’m worried some of the encouraging parts of the first two games came from playing terrible competition.
Illinois eventually outplayed Duke, but that was more a box-checking in the playoff quest than an announcement that Illinois is legitimate. They might be legitimate, but Duke gave them a lot.
Beau Pribula’s display of moxie in the Border War brought up questions of whether he’s better than Drew Allar. Seeing Allar’s performance against FIU, it’s easy to favor Pribula, but the really concerning part of that for Penn State is that this might be a product of Pribula being in a better spot. Mizzou should not be a better spot.
With Allar lacking, Penn State’s depth more limited than Ohio State’s and others’, and Penn State’s top-end individual talent lower than it was last year, I do not understand how Penn State is supposed to be the second-best team in the country.
Arch Manning is good at lobbing the ball to wide-open receivers, and in half of Texas’s games, that will be plenty.
I can’t keep track of whether Dave Aranda’s a good coach or not, but Sawyer Robertson might be a big deal in the Big 12.
SMU is fine in the long-term, but this season probably isn’t going where they want it. That won’t mean it’s a failure. Last year was beyond what they could have hoped for.
Clemson’s struggles against Troy illustrated the silliness of last week’s LSU hype. If Clemson isn’t that good, which even LSU seems to agree about, why was that a big enough win to make anyone consider them best in the SEC?
Georgia’s performance was concerning but not damning. Rain delays are unnatural in football. (And unlike Clemson, Georgia was merely slowed by the rain, not thrust into existential terror.)
In the absence of answers about Mississippi, we should revert to our priors, which indicate that Mississippi is a serious SEC factor.
There’s a reasonable case to be bullish on Florida. They had a start a lot like this last year and they recovered. There’s a good chance USF’s the best Group of Five team.
Even if USF’s the best Group of Five team, that unfortunately doesn’t mean a whole lot these days. The Bulls could make that loss not *look* that bad for Florida, but it was a bad loss.
Oregon is the best team in the country right now, but it’s going to be harder for them to maintain that than it would be for Ohio State or Georgia, who have deeper talent through the depth chart.
Oklahoma State isn’t dead yet. Not in a “they’ll make the playoff” way, but in a way where they could still be a respectable team. The Big 12 is nuts, and nowhere is it more nuts than in Stillwater.
That we didn’t get answers from South Dakota State’s trip to Bozeman shows how far North Dakota State is ahead of the rest of the FCS.
That Oklahoma win was fun and necessary for the health of the program, but by season’s end, it’s going to look pretty irrelevant. Progress for both programs, but more left to be made. (That said, Oklahoma is set up to have a great September. No games as an underdog until they hit the gauntlet beginning with Texas.)
Kenny Dillingham seems like a great guy, but he still has a lot to prove as a coach. That isn’t to rip on tonight’s performance. Last year’s team was just so dependent on all that magic.
I’m starting to think that my generation doesn’t adequately appreciate Frank Beamer. It’s hard to win in Blacksburg.
Kansas State might be where Nebraska got under Scott Frost. The pieces are all there to be a solid team, but they’re deep inside their own heads and it’s hard to see a path out.
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Plenty more to come from us as we get ready for a loaded Week 3. In the meantime, here’s our model’s latest bracketology and here are all its probabilities. Still working on the FCS bracketology piece, and on streamlining some of the user experience on the site. Thanks for continuing to bear with us.
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