They told us Week 1 would be seismic. It wasn’t. They’re telling us Week 2 is a letdown. Wrong again, you hacks.
There are, as always, plenty of games with playoff implications. But rather than say the same thing for Texas vs. San Jose State and Penn State vs. FIU etc. etc., then say a different same thing for Toledo vs. Western Kentucky and Ohio vs. West Virginia etc. etc., we’re going to stick with what we’re calling the ten biggest games of the weekend. As the year goes on and the picture clarifies, we’ll start acknowledging the take–care–of–business games again. It’s cocktail hour. The party is still taking shape.
As always, probabilities come from our model and Movelor is our model’s power rating system. We’ll have its landing pages (weekly predictions, full playoff probabilities, etc.) up tonight or tomorrow. I’m a non-breadwinning working parent, and I plan to milk that excuse as long as I possibly can.
Michigan at Oklahoma
Saturday, 7:30 PM EDT
ABC
What’s at stake?
For Michigan:
- Current playoff probability: 22%
- Playoff probability with win: 36%
- Playoff probability with loss: 6%
For Oklahoma:
- Current playoff probability: 5%
- Playoff probability with win: 9%
- Playoff probability with loss: 1%
But what’s at stake?
Brent Venables entered this season 22–17 over three years in Norman, the first two of which found Oklahoma still in the Big 12. Impatience is loaded, and so is OU’s conference schedule. Against this backdrop, Brent Venables is either confident enough to start taking shots at his predecessor or concerned enough to start playing the “doing things the right way” card. There are two ways to interpret his recent comments.
After starting the Sherrone Moore era 5–5, Michigan closed last year beating Ohio State and Alabama back-to-back. With the national championship so recent and defensiveness high post-Connor Stalions, those wins were enough to get Moore—a Jim Harbaugh shield at this point—back into a grace period, at least internally. Nationally, plenty of fans wouldn’t mind clowning the maize and blue. Regionally, SEC tribalists crave Michigan blood stronger than anyone.
On the individual side: John Mateer fans want John Mateer to be a Heisman contender, something that for quarterbacks usually requires ten wins. On the opposite sideline, this is a big test for true freshman Bryce Underwood in his second career start.
Who will win?
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Oklahoma by 5
- Movelor: Michigan by 1.5
- FPI*: Oklahoma by 0.9
- SP+: Oklahoma by 5.7
How, and how not?
If Jackson Arnold was as big a problem for Oklahoma as he was a scapegoat, Mateer could ignite this offense into at least a passable flame. Underwood is presumably rougher around the edges, but considering Michigan lacked a functional quarterback last fall (and offered few favors to the QB’s they did have), the Wolverines also hope to become a multi-dimensional football team. Still, it’s hard not to view this as trench warfare. Not that it’ll necessarily be ugly, but that the strength on each defensive front will make this come down to which offensive line has itself more together in the early season. Watch to see how much pressure Moore allows Underwood to face. It’s trendy to turtle in these big nonconference games.
*We list SP+ and FPI because they’re easy to access and both are strong predictors of real results.
Iowa at Iowa State
Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT
FOX
What’s at stake?
For Iowa State:
- Current playoff probability: 41%
- Playoff probability with win: 46%
- Playoff probability with loss: 16%
For Iowa:
- Current playoff probability: 2%
- Playoff probability with win: 7%
- Playoff probability with loss: 1%
But what’s at stake?
Firstly, pride. Iowa State’s won two of the last three Cy–Hawk games, but Iowa won six straight before that, and the Hawkeyes haven’t lost in Ames since 2011.
Secondly, big brother status. With Brian Ferentz still looming over Iowa’s reputation and Iowa State at its all-time high as a program, the Cyclones have a real opportunity these next few seasons to become the program outsiders and children see as the state’s top power.
Thirdly, some potential storybook stuff for Rocco Becht and ISU. The Big 12 schedule includes a lot of tripwires, but the Cyclones are 2–0, the Cyclones have played better than any other Big 12 team, and Becht has played as well as any quarterback in the country so far. The season is young. But after this weekend, ISU will have played a quarter of their regular season games.
Who will win?
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Iowa State by 3.5
- Movelor: Iowa State by 14.7
- FPI: Iowa State by 3.8
- SP+: Iowa State by 6.5
How, and how not?
How big is the Cy–Hawk pressure? I’m biased, as an Iowa State fan, but I’ve never seen Brock Purdy look more rattled than he did during this game in 2021. Iowa State looked clinical against South Dakota and for long stretches of the Kansas State game. If they can manage their heart rates, the Cyclones should be able to hold Iowa off. But that pressure is real, and pressure favors the team with little left to lose.
Iowa’s offense is a perpetual question mark, to the degree where Mark Gronowski probably played with better offenses at times in his South Dakota State career. Iowa’s defense isn’t where it once peaked, but it’s better than Kansas State’s. Force some bad plays from inexperienced receivers, entice Becht to try to do too much, and a good old Cy–Hawk upset is underway. This game is often football at its simplest.
Kansas at Missouri
Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT
ESPN2
What’s at stake?
For Missouri:
- Current playoff probability: 16%
- Playoff probability with win: 20%
- Playoff probability with loss: 3%
For Kansas:
- Current playoff probability: 10%
- Playoff probability with win: 22%
- Playoff probability with loss: 6%
But what’s at stake?
For as rude as Cy–Hawk gets, the Border War is the deeper rivalry tomorrow. These schools haven’t scheduled one another since 2011. When the hate permeates air-conditioned athletic offices, it’s real.
For the Jayhawks, a sterling start to Lance Leipold’s Lawrence tenure hit a rough patch last season, with Jalon Daniels playing a full season and that full season still not going well. The school wants football to finally be arriving, with a soon-to-be-rebuilt stadium, plenty of money from David Booth, and a golden opportunity in the New Big 12. It’s always easier said than done.
For the Tigers, last year’s disappointment resets expectations at a beneficial time. These guys could be pretty good. Most of the defense returns. The offense turned over, but it turned over with potential studs (Beau Pribula, Ahmad Hardy) in the backfield and one of the best linemen in the country (Cayden Green) anchoring college football’s most important position group. Missouri will lose in SEC play. But their draw is favorable enough that this Kansas game is one of their bigger threats.
Who will win?
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Missouri by 6.5
- Movelor: Missouri by 10.0
- FPI: Missouri by 3.4
- SP+: Missouri by 5.7
How, and how not?
If you’re reading this, you probably know Daniels, who’s playing his sixth season of college football. In case you don’t: He’s an x-factor, the kind of quarterback who isn’t good enough to make his team great but who is electric enough to make no upset seem impossible. The man is creative. The man is hard to tackle.
At a high level, there are two ways Kansas can win this game. The first is that Daniels puts Missouri’s defense in a blender. Like the Redcoats encountering guerrilla warfare at Lexington and Concord, sometimes good defenses run into a wildcard and don’t know what to do. Daniels won’t catch Mizzou by surprise. That doesn’t mean Mizzou can contain Daniels.
The second way Kansas can beat Missouri is if the potential in Columbia is a façade. We think Eli Drinkwitz is building something strong and that last year’s disappointment was more a factor of 2023’s reputation-inflating schedule than any fatal flaws. But we thought Charlie Strong was about to break through at Texas in 2016. It’s college football. We get a lot wrong.
James Madison at Louisville
Friday, 7:00 PM EDT
ESPN2
What’s at stake?
For Louisville:
- Current playoff probability: 13%
- Playoff probability with win: 17%
- Playoff probability with loss: 2%
For James Madison:
- Current playoff probability: 10%
- Playoff probability with win: 28%
- Playoff probability with loss: 6%
But what’s at stake?
It’s a reputational sport, but this is pretty mathematical. Either Louisville isn’t good enough to beat JMU (and therefore probably isn’t an ACC contender) or it is good enough (and the jury’s still out). Either JMU gets a power four win (and potentially jumps Tulane and Memphis in the Group of Five pecking order) or JMU doesn’t (and Dukes playoff dreams require winning out while others pick up losses).
Who will win?
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Louisville by 15
- Movelor: Louisville by 8.6
- FPI: Louisville by 8.4
- SP+: Louisville by 11.4
How, and how not?
Louisville’s line certainly looked effective against Eastern Kentucky, but it was Eastern Kentucky. They should have a physical advantage tonight, and they’ve got a lot of age and experience, including at quarterback where Miller Moss leaves behind a weird situation at USC. Will Isaac Brown’s running lanes be big enough to let the sophomore go crazy? If they are, it’s going to be a bad time for JMU. SP+ has the Cards’ offense ranked sixth in the country.
On the opposite side of the ball, though, Alonza Barnett has played big games, and so has his relief pitcher Matthew Sluka, the change-of-pace bulldozer who left UNLV under all that NIL controversy last fall. Sluka reunites with his former Holy Cross head coach, Bob Chesney, a guy who 1) knows Sluka’s capabilities and 2) knows how to coach as an underdog. A big question here that I really hate to write out is whether JMU is better served by pulling a Curt Cignetti and playing for a respectable loss or by going full Chesney–vs.–South–Dakota–State and pulling out all the stops. A bigger question is what Chesney thinks about that big question.
(Yes, that is two South Dakota State mentions already and we’re only four games in. More to come, punks. We’re going to run South Dakota State references down your throat.)
Mississippi at Kentucky
Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT
ABC
What’s at stake?
For Mississippi:
- Current playoff probability: 48%
- Playoff probability with win: 53%
- Playoff probability with loss: 16%
For Kentucky:
- Current playoff probability: 0.2%
- Playoff probability with win: 1%
- Playoff probability with loss: 0.1%
But what’s at stake?
I recognize how goofy this sentence sounds, but:
Is Mississippi the third-best team in the SEC?
The guys from Oxford feature a lot of new faces, but that’s Lane Kiffin’s model, and last year’s defensive line in particular proved how well it can work. The problem for last year’s team was consistency. That’s been a big issue for transfer-heavy programs. USC’s struggled with it. Miami’s struggled with it. Florida State’s struggled with it.
Prisoners of the moment are enamored with LSU, and that’s fine. Texas and Georgia’s ceilings and floors are both much higher, but LSU is the reasonable answer to “Who’s the third-best team in the SEC?” Is LSU the correct answer? That’s what we want to find out.
Relevant: Kentucky was the team who ruined Mississippi’s 2024 before it got off the ground. Or rather, Kentucky was the team against whom Mississippi ruined Mississippi’s 2024.
Who will win?
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Mississippi by 9
- Movelor: Mississippi by 17.5
- FPI: Louisville by 11.5
- SP+: Louisville by 16.1
How, and how not?
As those numbers illustrate, the fundamentals favor Mississippi. There’s enough talent in the machine that even on the road, these guys should be a double-digit favorite. What’s holding them back in the markets, the most efficient of those four predictors? It’s either reputation, a mirage stemming from how much newness leads the depth chart, or it’s Mark Stoops’s ability to play alligator ball. Kentucky can drag teams into the muck. They’re decent defensively, but it goes deeper than that. The Wildcats make games messy.
Illinois at Duke
Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT
ESPN
What’s at stake?
For Illinois:
- Current playoff probability: 15%
- Playoff probability with win: 21%
- Playoff probability with loss: 2%
For Duke:
- Current playoff probability: 4%
- Playoff probability with win: 9%
- Playoff probability with loss: 1%
But what’s at stake?
For Illinois, this is a necessary step in justifying the expectations others have set. A 10–3 season and a butt-ton of continuity drove Illinois up the offseason rankings, one of those sleepers who stops being a sleeper because everyone labeled them a sleeper. Lose at Duke, and this becomes an echo of 2024 Mizzou.
Speaking of Duke: Manny Diaz’s Blue Devils went 9–4 last year. Their worst loss came against Georgia Tech on the road. It’s possible there’ll be a Year 2 Letdown (I haven’t checked the numbers on this, but I think schools with real admissions offices tend to see fewer outward transfers after a coaching change, with players having done more credentials-wise to get in there and set to lose more degree value if they transfer out). If there isn’t, it’s not outrageous to picture Duke in a place like the Louisville seat: Not the ACC favorite, but close enough to keep an eye on the tiebreakers.
Who will win?
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Illinois by 3
- Movelor: Illinois by 6.7
- FPI: Duke by 0.1
- SP+: Illinois by 2.9
How, and how not?
It’s Manny Diaz vs. Bret Bielema. It’s going to be about defense and turnovers. It’s Week 2. It’s going to be about offensive line cohesion. It’s a pair of B+ quarterbacks throwing into dangerous secondaries in an early game in hot, muggy North Carolina. One of those affairs where Luke Altmyer and Darian Mensah (yep, the Tulane guy last year) are both likelier to lose their team this game than win it.
Arizona State at Mississippi State
Saturday, 7:30 PM EDT
ESPN2
What’s at stake?
For Arizona State:
- Current playoff probability: 29%
- Playoff probability with win: 32%
- Playoff probability with loss: 11%
For Mississippi State:
- Current playoff probability: 0.02%
- Playoff probability with win: 0.15%
- Playoff probability with loss: 0.00%
But what’s at stake?
I get why people are sick of the SEC. I recognize that people like to measure conferences by playoff bids, national championships, and little else. But Mississippi State is estimated to be the worst team in the SEC. One of the Big 12 favorites is hardly favored by a touchdown in Starkville. This game isn’t SEC vs. Big 12, but the angle needs a mention. The SEC is deeper than any other conference, and it’s deeper by a couple miles.
For both teams, this is about proving some legitimacy. Arizona State is still trying to get people to take them seriously after taking Texas to the ropes last year in Arlington. Mississippi State is trying to make progress and ideally make a bowl game after going 2–10 in Jeff Lebby’s first season. There’s the playoff angle—for as well as last year turned out, ASU would prefer to not lose early again—but there’s a lot of respect on the line too.
Who will win?
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Arizona State by 6.5
- Movelor: Arizona State by 16.4
- FPI: Arizona State by 1.0
- SP+: Arizona State by 9.7
How, and how not?
I can explain Movelor’s line, since Movelor’s our own system: It cares about final scores and little else. ASU finished last year really strong. Mississippi State went 2–10. Movelor doesn’t see a ton of nuance. (This is often a strength.)
With FPI, the best I can offer is that it’s very high on the SEC. This will obviously provoke some conspiracy theories since the SEC’s an ESPN conference and FPI’s an ESPN system. Are those theories valid? I’ve never seen any evidence that they are. If anything, I think ESPN’s spending too little time maintaining FPI, not too much, based on what we see with BPI and other relics of ESPN’s bygone analytical era. Why is FPI high on the SEC, then? I’d guess it has to do with the preseason talent component of FPI. Five of the eight most talented teams, not accounting for age, play in the SEC. That can inflate a conference’s ratings, and in a Bayesian system that’s more confident in “Texas is 18 points better than Mississippi State” than anything else, that can pull Mississippi State into the top 50.
As we’ve said, though: FPI is good. Mississippi State might be about as good as ASU. That’s possible. And with ASU slow out of the gate last year and a little underwhelming against Northern Arizona last week, it’s very possible they’ll walk out of Starkville with a shiner under their left eye. Like Notre Dame, last year’s Sun Devils had a lot of magic. As we saw with Notre Dame, magic is more ephemeral than five-stars.
Baylor at SMU
Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT
The CW
What’s at stake?
For SMU:
- Current playoff probability: 16%
- Playoff probability with win: 20%
- Playoff probability with loss: 4%
For Baylor:
- Current playoff probability: 2%
- Playoff probability with win: 5%
- Playoff probability with loss: 1%
But what’s at stake?
Baylor and SMU draw from different kinds of Texans (and Southerners), and those kinds are different but not opposed. This is an in-state matchup and a throwback to the Southwest Conference. It’s not a hot war.
That makes this a little like Louisville vs. JMU: Academic. SMU’s in the ACC race. Baylor would like to be in the Big 12 race. Neither’s likely to win their conference championship, so the at-large résumés are relevant. Baylor’s already got a loss. SMU might suffer some lingering disrespect from how emphatically Penn State beat them last December. Must-win? Technically no, but sure, why not. Especially since Dave Aranda’s been on such a hot seat rollercoaster in Waco.
Who will win?
Spreads:
- Betting markets: SMU by 2.5
- Movelor: SMU by 9.5
- FPI: SMU by 4.5
- SP+: SMU by 9.9
How, and how not?
Baylor’s offense showed some promising stuff in that Auburn game. Sawyer Robinson threw for over 400 yards. SMU’s offense should be even better. We’ve seen Kevin Jennings give and we’ve seen Kevin Jennings take away. Ideally, whoever does win this makes it thrilling.
USF at Florida
Saturday, 4:15 PM EDT
SEC Network
What’s at stake?
For Florida:
- Current playoff probability: 19%
- Playoff probability with win: 21%
- Playoff probability with loss: 3%
For USF:
- Current playoff probability: 3%
- Playoff probability with win: 12%
- Playoff probability with loss: 2%
But what’s at stake?
Billy Napier’s guys rallied last year. After losing to Miami and Texas A&M, they finished the year on an 8–3 run, with wins over Mississippi and LSU and the three losses all coming to playoff teams. Expectations are accordingly high right now, and because the SEC merely flipped last year’s schedule, the Gators’ path is similarly treacherous. (This is also the year Napier has to play Miami on the road.) In struts USF fresh off one of the loudest results of a loud Week 1, a complete disemboweling of Boise State in Tampa.
For USF, this is a shot at some national recognition, a chance to score a resonating in-state victory, and an inside track to a playoff bid. For Florida, this is either disaster, disaster avoided, or—and this is the most likely of the three scenarios—a statement that even a good Group of Five team can’t touch this program.
Who will win?
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Florida by 18
- Movelor: Florida by 20.6
- FPI: Florida by 10.8
- SP+: Florida by 20.3
How, and how not?
Byrum Brown was busy against Boise State, but shouldn’t expect the success on the ground he had against that defense. Florida’s too athletic for that, unless they really have problems with preparation. USF’s offense is good enough that mistake-free football and accurate throws can win if the Bulls win the chess match. That’s a lot that has to go right, though, and then there’s the defensive side, where USF needs to hope DJ Lagway is a problem for Florida more than he’s a problem for the SEC.
South Dakota State at Montana State
Saturday, 8:05 PM EDT
ESPN+
What’s at stake?
The FCS bracketology piece of our model is still in development (we’re down to one cold in the household, though, and it’s neither mine nor the kid’s), so no numbers here. If we had numbers, they’d be more about the FCS national championship than making the FCS playoffs. Each of these teams is close to an FCS playoff lock.
As that sentence implies, these are two of the best FCS programs, and they’re the two teams likeliest to be the second-best FCS team this year. Each had a lot of turnover, but “a lot” can mean different things. South Dakota State lost almost its whole program to Washington State. Montana State mostly lost players. For the Bobcats, then, this is about showing that they retooled and can beat some of the best in the MVFC. For South Dakota State, it’s a measurement of where they landed after the offseason fall. Are they still top two? Top five? Top ten?
Who will win?
Spreads:
- Betting markets: South Dakota State by 3.5
- Movelor: Montana State by 0.8
- SP+: South Dakota State by 1.6
How, and how not?
The Jacks went defensive with their rebuild, turning to a pair of former DB’s coaches (among other positions held) in Dan Jackson and Brian Bergstrom. The former is the new head coach. The latter is the new defensive coordinator. As far as FCS NIL money goes, the Jacks do have some, so it’s possible they’ve built something good enough fast enough to stay ahead of the pack. More likely, they’re going to be strong on defense and questionable offensively.
For Montana State, then, it’s about hitting the Jacks where it hurts. South Dakota State needs this to be low-scoring. Montana State can win a low-scoring game. Brent Vigen’s teams have been a blast offensively. They don’t need to be a blast to win this. They need to be competent and not give anything away. Unless SDSU has broken back through with offensive line play (possible, but more likely Sacramento State is just paper), the Cats’ defense should be able to hang in there.
Something to remember about South Dakota State is that Jackson isn’t taking over John Stiegelmeier’s program. Jackson’s taking over Jimmy Rogers’s program. Rogers’s program was worse than Stiegelmeier left it. Now Jackson has to rebuild it mostly from scratch. If those markets are right and SDSU wins convincingly in Bozeman, it’s a big deal, even with Montana State themselves an unknown quantity.
Note: An earlier version of this post listed the betting line for this game as SDSU by 12.5. That was wrong. I was looking at a basketball line from January. The FCS markets hadn’t opened yet. My bad, guys.
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