Are there good college football games this weekend? Sure. Depending where you draw the line and whether any heavily favored playoff contenders decide to copycat Oklahoma, there might just be one of consequence, but there are others that would still presumably be fun to watch, and interesting at the least to those with their eyes pinned on the playoff. North Carolina’s visit to Boston College intrigues, as the Tar Heels have played just one game and waited until the fourth quarter to do anything in it. Texas, suddenly the standard-bearer in the Big 12, hosts TCU and tries to either bounce back from a woeful defensive try in Lubbock or build on a dramatic road victory. Texas A&M may have been looking ahead to this week’s trip to Tuscaloosa when they struggled Saturday to hold off Vanderbilt. It might not matter if they were.
There’s one game we can be certain counts, and it’s Auburn’s trip to Georgia. In a season in which the SEC’s playing significantly more games than the Big Ten and the Pac-12, and the Big 12 has already pretty well neutered itself, there’s a solid chance we’ll see two SEC teams in the field, and both of these could have a claim as the second if they fail to capture the league crown.
Auburn’s schedule is far from “easy,” but they do avoid Florida, making the path rather clear for them even if they lose at Alabama: Impress, lose one close one to the SEC Champion (Alabama would be the expectation here), get just enough mediocrity or questionability out of conference champions elsewhere to crack the field. Georgia does play Alabama in the regular season this year, but if ever a two-loss team that lost its conference championship was going to make the field, it would be an SEC team with more wins than anyone in the Big Ten. All of this doesn’t go to say that Auburn or Georgia is a playoff favorite—both are more likely than not to miss the field, and more likely than not at this point to stumble too many times to warrant consideration. But they each have a chance, and they’re among the three non-Alabama SEC teams trying to climb into that top tier, making this a game of enormous consequence.
The Auburn defense was impressive in the opener, holding Kentucky to 13 points on 4.8 yards per play while taking the ball away thrice. Georgia’s defense was similarly outstanding, holding Arkansas to 10 points on 4.1 yards per play while also taking the ball away thrice. Bill Connelly’s SP+ rates these defenses as the best and second-best in the country, but there’s a wide gap between the two. 6.9-points-on-a-neutral-field wide. For some context, 28 teams behind Auburn’s defense are within 6.9 points of the Tigers. 6.9 is a massive gap. Georgia’s defense is really good. Offensively, though, there are questions for Georgia. They managed just three points in the first half against Arkansas. They don’t know who their quarterback is. USC transfer JT Daniels appears the most likely to eventually hold the job, but he might not be ready for it this week, coming off of a major knee injury last year and a scope this offseason. Even if he is ready, he might not be the answer—he threw 14 touchdowns and ten interceptions over eleven games his freshman year at Southern Cal. Jake Fromm had widely better numbers than that, even his freshman year, and Jake Fromm didn’t exactly head up a potent passing attack.
The winner of this game is far from in the driver’s seat, but the loser’s back will be firmly against the wall. It’s October. The first college football playoff elimination game is upon us.
