It’s unclear when we’ll have decisive results from this fall’s elections. Vote-counting is expected to take longer than most years, with the impact of record turnout augmented by the number of votes cast by mail. In some states, it may be a week or more before we know the winner of the state’s electoral votes.
To help navigate this uncertainty, FiveThirtyEight has put together a helpful guide to when to expect results from each state. The guide includes detailed information on each of the fifty states’ electoral processes (as well as that of D.C.), but at its broadest level, it groups states into three categories: States where “Nearly All” of the vote is expected to be counted on election night, states where “Most But Not All” of the vote is expected to be counted on election night, and states where “Only Some” of the vote is expected to be counted on election night.
So, what will we know on election night?
We can’t say for sure that the states in the “Nearly All” category will have a projected winner. Some might be too close to call, even with nearly all of their votes counted. If we do get projected winners, though, they’re more likely to come from competitive states in this category than competitive states in the others.
Of the 17 states in this “Nearly All” category, five are 97% or more likely to go to Joe Biden (per FiveThirtyEight’s presidential election forecast), meaning we’ll only know something major from their results if there’s a blowout. Ten are 85% or more likely to go to Donald Trump, meaning, similarly, we should only know something major from their results if there’s a blowout. Two, with the addition of Nebraska’s second congressional district (Nebraska and Maine allocate two statewide electoral votes, then allocate their remaining electoral votes by congressional district—one electoral vote per district) could be classified as “swing states:” Florida and New Hampshire. These are the two to watch.
Florida is, per FiveThirtyEight, 64% likely to assign its electoral votes to Joe Biden. It’s a large electoral prize, and given we should get a higher share of its results on election night than we should from comparably important states, expect much of the focus from networks to be on Florida.
New Hampshire, on the other hand, does not have many electoral votes. It’s also a stretch to call New Hampshire a swing state. It’s 89% likely to assign its electoral votes to Biden, making it less uncertain than even Montana, which is 85% likely to assign its electoral votes to Trump. Still, New Hampshire can tell us more than Montana, and here’s why:
Montana is a long way from the “tipping point”—the point at which a candidate crosses the 270-electoral vote threshold if states are lined up in order of voting margin. FiveThirtyEight’s projections place seven states between Montana and the tipping point (which is forecast to be Pennsylvania), with one of those states being Texas, whose massive electoral vote quantity pushes Montana even further from a place of decisive importance.
New Hampshire, contrarily, is only separated from the tipping point by four states, and by 42 electoral votes (for context, Texas alone has 38 electoral votes). It’s not likely to decide the election itself, but it’s in the mix of states that could, whereas Montana is not. Hence, watch New Hampshire, not Montana.
What, though, to watch, between Florida and New Hampshire? With help from FiveThirtyEight’s interactive forecast, in which you can test hypothetical scenarios in a model that accounts for correlations between states, here’s how the election breaks down, judging just by states expected to count “Nearly All” of their votes on election night. In all scenarios, we assume Colorado, Oregon, Vermont, Hawaii, and Delaware will go to Biden, and we assume Montana, South Carolina, Missouri, Tennessee, Alabama, Idaho, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Nebraska, and Arkansas—as well as Nebraska’s first and third congressional districts—will go to Trump.
IF: Trump wins Florida, New Hampshire, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, Trump is 84% likely to win the election.
IF: Trump wins New Hampshire and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, but Biden wins Florida (this is unlikely, as Biden will likely win New Hampshire in most scenarios in which he wins Florida), Biden is 95% likely to win the election.
IF: Trump wins Florida and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, but Biden wins New Hampshire, Biden is 57% likely to win the election.
IF: Trump wins Florida and New Hampshire, but Biden wins Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, Trump is 52% likely to win the election, and a tie becomes 3% likely (there’s a 269-269 scenario involving Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District).
IF: Trump wins Florida, but Biden wins New Hampshire and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, Biden is 90% likely to win the election.
IF: Trump wins New Hampshire, but Biden wins Florida and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, Biden is more than 99% likely to win the election.
IF: Trump wins Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, but Biden wins Florida and New Hampshire, Biden is more than 99% likely to win the election.
IF: Biden wins Florida, New Hampshire, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, Biden is more than 99% likely to win the election.
So, if you’re hoping for Donald Trump to be re-elected, hope on Trump to win Florida and New Hampshire (and Nebraska’s 2nd District), but know that he won’t have it locked up even if he wins those three races. If you’re hoping for a Joe Biden presidency, hope on Biden to win Florida and New Hampshire (or Florida and Nebraska’s 2nd, or all three). If that happens and there aren’t surprises elsewhere, the election’s probably in the bag, barring some shocking legal happenings. And if it comes down to Pennsylvania or Nevada, brace yourself, because those states are in the category where they’re expected to count “Only Some” of their votes on election night, and with discrepancies between parties in terms of the usage of mail-in ballots (more Democrats are voting by mail, but Democrats voting by mail tend to have done it earlier than Republicans voting by mail), nothing you see on election night is a done deal (unless we get network projections, each of which is at least a 99.5% done deal).
