Well, we’re getting Gonzaga vs. Baylor. It’s the first national championship matchup between the best two teams in the country (per KenPom), since Villanova beat UNC in 2016. It’s Gonzaga’s second ever national championship appearance, with their last coming in 2017, when they were ranked as the best team in the country by KenPom and were a four-point favorite on the site. (Sound familiar?)
As far as the matchup goes:
Gonzaga is likely the stronger defensive team, but Baylor’s ability to force turnovers is a better facet of the game than anything Gonzaga does on the defensive end. The Zags are better-rounded, one might say (Baylor has some issues allowing open looks and preventing second-chance points), but they’ll have to protect the ball well enough to get the shots they need to win.
Offensively, Baylor’s three-point shooting is going to test Gonzaga, just as Gonzaga’s might inside is going to test Baylor. Baylor does crash the rim better than Gonzaga, but the Bulldog interior effort is strong enough to outweigh the sum of the Bears. Still, it’s the best two offensive teams in the country going at it, which should be a good time.
I wrote about this in today’s bets, but tempo figures to be important. Gonzaga likes to run the floor. Baylor likes to slow teams down. Look for Scott Drew to deploy the 1-2-2 press he turned to early against Houston. Watch to see what Gonzaga can do off of Baylor misses. Don’t count on a game in the 80’s—Baylor’s going to try to keep the possession count too low for that—but be ready for it, because that is the median projection. Be ready too for a game in the 90’s, as Mark Few would likely prefer.
What a night we (seem to) have before us.
