I’m not sure I understand the vitriol directed at the Anaheim Angels for putting Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López, and other expiring contracts on waivers this week. I thought you guys wanted teams to try to win, to behave like the Angels did at the trade deadline and take a shot at making the playoffs with Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout? It didn’t work, and now the thing to do is to save resources for future seasons, and the players in question are now getting a chance to make a run at the playoffs. I understand Angels fans being frustrated it’s come to this, but if you cheered the approach which led to the Giolito acquisition, you haven’t left yourself a lot of room to complain. This line of content where analysts alternate between criticizing teams for being too shrewd (“they’re not trying to win”) and criticize teams for being too competitive (“they’re not going to win that way”) is childish. My understanding of how a loud faction of baseball fans want baseball franchises to be run is to throw money at free agents and to throw prospects at trade targets and to also never sign a bad contract and to maintain an elite farm system at all times. Was it funny to see so many Angels go through waivers this week? Of course! But it’s one thing to laugh at it and another to use it to blast the team which arguably runs itself most in accordance with your own particular hive mind. Hypocrisy is high this week in widely-defined baseball media.
As for Giolito and López, well, they’re back in the AL Central now, they and Matt Moore picked up by a Guardians team who, much like the Angels a month ago, is trying to make an improbable run at the playoffs after a dramatic series victory this week. On the other side of Ohio, Harrison Bader and Hunter Renfroe rebalance the veteran–rookie seesaw in Cincinnati, bolstering a Reds outfield that’s trying to crash the playoff party itself. Lastly, the Mariners picked up a relief pitcher, Dominic Leone, which is a very Mariners thing to come out of all of this.
If transaction news doesn’t do it for you and you get your kicks from happenings on the field of play, I understand, and baseball’s got that right now as well. The AL West has three teams within a game. The NL Wild Card cut line has three teams within a game. And out in Los Angeles, baseball’s two best teams are heading into a four-game set, entering with a combined 45–12 record in the month of August. Let’s get to it.
The Stars
Were it not for the Angels’ struggles, Alex Cobb may have been the story of the week, nearly no-hitting the Reds on Tuesday night and throwing a complete game in the process. The Giants and Diamondbacks switched positions quickly yet again, and if this switch is the one that holds, that performance is going to be seen as a turning point in what might be the race for the final playoff spot.
Trea Turner’s struggles are still recent in a technical sense, but it’s hard to find any Phillies fan complaining about them now, as Philadelphia’s offseason prize homered four times in the Phils’ three games against the Angels, driving in nine in the process. Not to be left out, Bryce Harper added three home runs of his own. The Phillies are bopping.
The Cardinals might be down and out, but there’s baseball to be played, and St. Louis played it, Tommy Edman walking off Tuesday’s victory with a single off Josh Hader and yesterday’s with a home run, also off Josh Hader. These hits didn’t finish off the Padres’ own season in any technical sense, but they sure were daggers.
Texas was not having a good time entering the week, and things still aren’t great there in the broader picture, but Nathaniel Lowe came through with a timely knock on Monday and Mitch Garver hit a key home run on Tuesday to give the Rangers a series win in Queens and steady the boat.
Johan Oviedo threw a complete game shutout for the Pirates on Monday, another accomplishment in what’s been a breakout season for the 25-year-old, who came over last summer from the Cardinals in the José Quintana deal. Luis Severino turned in a heartening start for the Yankees. Justin Steele and Corbin Burnes dueled at Wrigley Field and then Brandon Woodruff and Kyle Hendricks did more of the same. Kyle Harrison pitched into the seventh inning for the Giants after being billed as a four-inning rookie. Cole Ragans kept his hot streak going on the mound. Gleyber Torres had a good week at the plate. And Jason Heyward, Jason Heyward who was not good enough to play on last year’s 74-win Chicago Cubs, hit a pair of home runs to bring his season OPS up over .800. The Dodgers just might be a winning organization.
The Series
On the NL side of the coin:
- The Dodgers swept the Diamondbacks, scoring at least seven runs in each game and only allowing more than one once.
- The Braves swept the Rockies, with a mix of a pummeling and a close one and a routine win.
- The Phillies took two of three from the Angels, narrowly missing a sweep yesterday.
- The Cubs took two of three from the Brewers, keeping the NL Central interesting.
- The Giants won two of three over the Reds in a high-leverage series in the Wild Card race.
- The Marlins lost both halves of their pair against the Rays at a bad time to get swept.
- The Padres dropped two of three to the Cardinals, and again: Dramatic fashion on those.
On the AL side:
- The Orioles took two of three from the White Sox, but only two of three.
- The Rays swept their pair against Miami.
- The Mariners won two of three over the A’s, with a brief three-way tie materializing in the West after the Tuesday loss.
- The Astros swept the Red Sox, putting Boston on the brink of playoff irrelevance.
- The Rangers took two of three from the Mets, righting the ship and doing it on the road.
- The Blue Jays won two out of their three against the Nationals, weathering the injury storm for now with Matt Chapman and Bo Bichette going on the IL.
- The Guardians came back in the 9th and won yesterday’s game in the 10th to take their rubbermatch against Minnesota.
The Situation
In the competitive divisions:
- The Astros gained a game on each of the Mariners and Rangers, moving into an effective tie for first with Seattle while leading Texas by a game. (Seattle leads Houston by one in the loss column, Houston leads by one in the win column.)
- The Rays picked up half a game on the Orioles, closing that gap to 1.5 (two in the loss column).
- The Guardians gained a game on the Twins, making that a five-game race.
- The Cubs moved one game closer to the Brewers, getting that gap to three games and quieting a recent Brewers surge.
With the Wild Cards:
- Using the Blue Jays, the first team out, as our AL benchmark: Houston gained a game, Texas stayed even, and Boston lost two games, leaving Houston 3.5 games ahead of Toronto for 5th, Texas 2.5 games up on the Jays for the last Wild Card spot, and Boston 6.5 games back of playoff position.
- Using the Giants, the last team in, as our NL benchmark: The Cubs held even, the Reds lost a game, the Marlins lost a game and a half, and the Diamondbacks lost two games, leaving the Giants leading Arizona by half a game and Cincinnati by a full game, with the Cubs enjoying a touch of breathing room and the Marlins trying to find some air.
Here’s where that leaves the playoff races:
American League
- Making the Playoffs (>99%): Baltimore, Tampa Bay
- Division Favorites (>90%): Minnesota
- Looking Good (>75%): Houston, Seattle
- Likelier Than Not (>55%): Texas
- Hanging On (>35%): Toronto
- Still Here: Boston, Cleveland
Many are ready to give up on the Red Sox, including possibly the Red Sox, but if Cleveland’s alive, it’s hard to say Boston isn’t, with the two facing a similar gap and a similar balance of teams to pass/teams that they could catch. Neither exactly looks great, and if the Red Sox do poorly this weekend against the Royals, maybe we’ll count them out, but for right now, we’re calling the AL a nine-team race.
While the Red Sox go to Kansas City, the teams they’re trying to catch—the Astros and Rangers—host the Yankees and Twins, respectively. While the Twins visit Texas, the Guardians are hosting the Rays. While the Rays are in Cleveland, the Orioles take on the Diamondbacks in Arizona. In the midst of all of it, the Blue Jays play the Rockies on the road and the Mariners head to Queens to see about the Mets.
National League
- Playing for Home-Field (100%): Atlanta, Los Angeles
- Playoff Favorites (>90%): Milwaukee, Philadelphia
- Looking Good (>75%): Chicago (NL)
- Likelier Than Not (>55%): San Francisco
- Hanging On (>35%): Arizona
- Still Here: Cincinnati, Miami
We’ve removed the Padres here, for reasons we have already established twice. It is very easy to forget that the Padres nearly made the World Series last year.
The Dodgers trail Atlanta by four games, but that’s also how many the pair will play at Dodger Stadium this weekend in what’s about 40% likely to be an NLCS preview. Below them, the Phillies and Brewers will each work on holding back the Cubs, playing one another in Milwaukee for three nights.
Those Cubs go to Cincinnati for four games, beginning with a doubleheader tomorrow, and while they do that, the Giants are in San Diego for what’s still a big four-game series. Arizona’s hosting the Orioles for three. Miami’s got four in Washington.
The Best Games
The Tigers and Yankees played a good one early today in a rain makeup, but the real action tonight is Spencer Strider matching up with Lance Lynn in LA. Tomorrow, give us Freddy Peralta against Zack Wheeler and Max Fried against Julio Urías. Saturday, Kyle Harrison* tries to keep a good thing going against Blake Snell. Sunday, Zac Gallen opposes Jack Flaherty, and the Sunday Night game is Yankees–Astros (Dodgers vs. Braves is in the late afternoon, which nestles neatly within the college football lineup).
*We’ve given Kyle Harrison so many mentions these last two weeks that it feels forced, but I promise, we have no Kyle Harrison agenda. He’s sure been consequential, though! As promised!
Who’s Hot
August is almost over, and while Julio Rodríguez has been incredible, Mookie Betts has somehow been even better, with a .512 on-base percentage over the month and nine home runs. Betts vs. Acuña is very much a race for the NL MVP, and if it isn’t, it’s not Betts being left behind.
On the mound, Ragans has had the unlikely best August, striking out 53 over six starts while allowing just seven earned runs. The guy is only 25, and his numbers weren’t bad in Texas. The Royals might have something here.
