The First Round of the Virtual NIT will be beginning in about an hour, and we’ve got spreads for you. Just to explain what these are:
If every game were simulated one million times, the average result would be roughly equal to its spread as listed here. These games will only be simulated once, though, meaning for each game, we’ll get a random result from somewhere in the distribution surrounding the respective average result. Please note that these simulations are only using KenPom’s adjusted efficiency ratings (both offensive and defensive), adjusted tempo rating, and home court advantage rating. We could’ve gone more complex, but the final results will be the same, even if the path there is a little less authentic (for example, Alabama and Prairie View A&M will shoot threes at the same frequency in their respective simulations, even though that isn’t actually how either team operated this year). Again, final results will be the same as they would have been with more nuance.
Now, the spreads:
8. Siena @ 1. Rhode Island (8:00 PM EDT): Rhode Island -9.5
6. UCLA @ 3. UConn (8:00 PM EDT): UConn -6.5
6. Georgia @ 3. St. John’s (8:00 PM EDT): St. John’s -6.5
7. Colgate @ 2. Rutgers (8:15 PM EDT): Rutgers -13
8. North Carolina Central @ 1. Richmond (8:15 PM EDT): Richmond -18
5. South Carolina @ 4. North Carolina State (8:30 PM EDT): North Carolina State -5
5. Clemson @ 4. Furman (8:30 PM EDT): Furman -3
5. Syracuse @ 4. Tennessee (8:30 PM EDT): Tennessee -2.5
8. Radford @ 1. Alabama (8:45 PM EDT): Alabama -12.5
6. Arkansas-Little Rock @ 3. Mississippi State (8:45 PM EDT): Mississippi State -10.5
7. Wright State @ 2. Northern Iowa (9:00 PM EDT): Northern Iowa -10.5
5. Notre Dame @ 4. Minnesota (9:00 PM EDT): Minnesota -7.5
6. Tulsa @ 3. Oklahoma State (9:00 PM EDT): Oklahoma State -5.5
7. Stephen F. Austin @ 2. Texas (9:15 PM EDT): Texas -7
8. Prairie View A&M @ 1. Texas Tech (9:15 PM EDT): Texas Tech -20
7. Eastern Washington @ 2. Stanford (9:30 PM EDT): Stanford -11
