Our bracketologies are updated for the week. Before we break down the movement, some housekeeping:
- ESPN has released its BPI since we last ran the model, so that’s been added, and schedules have been updated.
- All bracketologies are current through games of Monday, November 30th.
- We have an archive now where you can compare previous outputs from our model to see how it’s processed incoming data. The archive will expand as the season goes on to give greater insight into the path the season has followed, but we wanted to make sure we at least had our outputs publicly available.
Now, the links:
And finally, the movement:
Moving In (At-Large Bids)
After successfully navigating Tulsa and Liberty over the weekend, TCU enters the field. NC State and SMU both move in on the back of a pair of blowouts apiece over low-majors. Richmond’s victory at Kentucky was enough to convince our model of their legitimacy, though it’s still low on them relative to the market. Colorado’s strong showing in Manhattan (the Kansas one) was enough to push them up across the cut line, and Dayton slid across the line despite not yet playing a game.
Moving Out (At-Large Bids)
Syracuse’s dance with disaster in their opener against Bryant was enough to drop them into our projected NIT. Memphis made the same move following a disappointing showing in Sioux Falls. UConn and Seton Hall both played fine, but both got passed. Alabama, on the other end of the Stanford blowout, dropped from the field, and our model was unimpressed with LSU’s performance against SLU.
Moving Up
Virginia Tech’s upset of Villanova changed the picture for them, vaulting them five seed lines. Making the same leap is Stanford after their evisceration of Alabama last night.
Moving Down
The model already didn’t love Virginia, but the San Francisco loss further torpedoed Tony Bennett’s team, dropping them four seed lines in the model’s median projection.
Automatic Bid Shifts
In the OVC, Belmont swaps in for Murray State. In the Southland, Abilene Christian enters in place of Stephen F. Austin. In the MAC, it’s Toledo now instead of Buffalo. In the Big West, it’s the Santa Barbara branch of the UC system, rather than Irvine’s. And in the NEC, we now have St. Francis (PA) in the spot formerly occupied by Fairleigh Dickinson.
