Each Elite Eight game has a clear favorite. It’s only about 29% likely each of those favorites wins.
1. Gonzaga vs. 6. USC
USC’s underseeding hasn’t been discussed much, possibly because the only teams really firmly affected by it were Kansas and Drake. But it happened—the Trojans, at least by our model’s estimation, were deserving of a 4-seed by historic standards, and they’ve demonstrated they’re even better than their regular season selves.
It isn’t the worst possible draw for Gonzaga, and it’s likely (about 3-in-4) likely that it won’t matter, but it’s a big, big test for the Zags.
1. Michigan vs. 11. UCLA
Michigan doesn’t seem to have missed a beat without Isaiah Livers. Is that real? Or have they just played a few good games? This question is especially pertinent on the defensive end, where anyone would have their hands full with UCLA right now.
1. Baylor vs. 3. Arkansas
Arkansas has enjoyed a pretty nice slate, having yet to play anyone better than Texas Tech, who KenPom rates as 20th-best in the country. Even so, they’ve been in highly uncomfortable situations in each of the three games.
Baylor’s a lot closer to Houston and Michigan than they are to Gonzaga. But if Arkansas doesn’t play their first full game of the tournament, that shouldn’t matter.
2. Houston vs. 12. Oregon State
Oregon State’s had success defending the three all year, and so far in this tournament, there’s been no exception. All three of their opponents have shot under 28% from deep. For Houston, who takes a lot of threes and doesn’t have a ton of success making them, this could be a big problem. But at the same time, Oregon State’s got a big hole in the stat sheet when it comes to offensive rebounds. That’s somewhere the favorites might really make them pay.
