Unemployment Is Important, but So Is Employment

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the September Jobs Report. Eyes will be on the unemployment rate, which is fair, but as a reminder, it’s a good idea to look at the total number employed as well, as the size of the labor force has dropped by roughly five million people since February, with many unemployed giving up looking for work.

Here’s how the numbers stacked up in the August report, for reference. All uncited data comes from the BLS, with a major assist to The Balance for their post earlier this month with not only the numbers from the August report, but also definitions for each category.

CategoryPeople (Millions), August Jobs Report
Younger than 16 (approximate)64.3
Active Duty Armed Forces1.3
In “Institutions” (approximate)2.1
Employed147.3
Unemployed13.6
“Marginally Attached”2.1
Not in Labor Force, Not Marginally Attached97.6

Total U.S. Population: 328.2 Million
Per Census Bureau’s July 2019 Estimate

Portion of Population Younger than 16: Roughly 64.3 Million
Estimate made via data from Census Bureau’s July 2019 Estimate

Persons younger than 16, whether working or not, are not considered part of the Civilian Non-Institutional Population, and therefore aren’t considered part of the labor force.

Active Duty Armed Forces: 1.3 Million
Per September 2017 Defense Department Personnel Data

Active Duty military are not considered part of the Civilian Non-Institutional Population, and therefore aren’t considered part of the labor force.

“Institutionalized” Population: Roughly 2.1 Million
Estimate made via above data and BLS data.

The BLS does not consider those residing in what they term “institutions” (nursing homes, prisons, etc.) part of the Civilian Non-Institutional Population, making them also not part of the labor force.

Civilian Non-Institutional Population: 260.6 Million

This is everyone 16 or older, excluding active duty Armed Forces and those residing in institutions.

Labor Force: 160.8 Million

This is everyone who’s either employed or unemployed.

Employed: 147.3 Million

Persons are considered “employed” if they’ve worked one or more paid hour in the past week, 15 or more unpaid hours in the last week in a family-owned business or farm, or have a business or job but spent the last week sick, on vacation, or not working one or more paid hour for similar temporary reasons.

Unemployed: 13.6 Million

Persons are considered “unemployed” if they are not employed but have actively looked for a job within the last four weeks.

Not in Labor Force: 99.7 Million

This is everyone in the Civilian Non-Institutional Population who isn’t considered part of the Labor Force.

Marginally Attached: 2.1 Million

This is a segment of those not in the Labor Force consisting of persons who have looked for work in the last year, but not the last four weeks.

Not in Labor Force, Not Marginally Attached: 97.6 Million

This block is mainly people like students, retirees, and homemakers, but it also includes those who would theoretically like a job but haven’t looked in the last year.

***

There isn’t a magic number for any of this, and it’s good to remember that most unemployment is temporary, so getting the unemployment rate down to 0.0% wouldn’t be necessary even in a perfect world in which everyone was financially secure. Generally speaking, though, in times of economic turmoil (and this is a time of economic turmoil), you want to see the number of employed persons rise. That’s the thing that shows progress. So, if you want to look further than the unemployment rate (though the unemployment rate will still give you at least a decent picture of where things are), that’s where to look.

Editor. Occasional blogger. Seen on Twitter, often in bursts: @StuartNMcGrath
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