The NIT drama intensifies, and I am very sorry to A-10 fans, but today, none of it includes them.
| Team 1 | Team 2 | NIT Leverage |
| Lamar | McNeese | 0.99 |
| Montana | Northern Colorado | 0.99 |
| Texas | Vanderbilt | 0.62 |
| UTEP | Liberty | 0.52 |
| Virginia | Georgia Tech | 0.47 |
| Notre Dame | North Carolina | 0.45 |
| Air Force | UNLV | 0.41 |
| Fresno State | Nevada | 0.38 |
| Utah Tech | Utah Valley | 0.31 |
| Iowa | Ohio State | 0.26 |
| UCF | Kansas | 0.23 |
| Colorado | West Virginia | 0.21 |
| Northwestern | Minnesota | 0.21 |
| Seton Hall | Villanova | 0.19 |
| Kansas State | Baylor | 0.11 |
| Syracuse | SMU | 0.10 |
| UT Arlington | Grand Canyon | 0.10 |
| DePaul | Georgetown | 0.08 |
| South Carolina | Arkansas | 0.06 |
| USC | Rutgers | 0.05 |
| Oklahoma | Georgia | 0.04 |
| Butler | Providence | 0.02 |
| Cal | Stanford | 0.01 |
| LSU | Mississippi State | 0.01 |
| Cincinnati | Iowa State | 0.01 |
League by league, what to watch and how to do it:
The ACC
- 12:00 PM EDT: Georgia Tech vs. Virginia (ESPN2)
- 2:30 PM EDT: North Carolina vs. Notre Dame (ESPN)
- 7:00 PM EDT: Stanford vs. Cal (ESPN2)
- 9:30 PM EDT: SMU vs. Syracuse (ESPNU)
Our main focus here is UNC. The Tar Heels can lock up The Invitation with a loss to Notre Dame. Beyond that, Stanford and SMU are also safely in with a loss, and all of Georgia Tech, Virginia, and Notre Dame can make serious gains on the NIT’s bottom bubble by winning. This Georgia Tech/Virginia game is particularly important because the winner plays Duke, and with Duke eliminated from all meaningful postseason competition, there’s a good chance Cooper Flagg sits tomorrow to preserve his NBA Draft stock. You heard it here first.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| Notre Dame | 32% | 1% |
| Virginia | 28% | 1% |
| Georgia Tech | 19% | 0% |
| North Carolina | 77% | 91% |
| SMU | 83% | 90% |
| Syracuse | 2% | 0% |
| Stanford | 90% | 89% |
| Cal | 1% | 0% |
The SEC
- 1:00 PM EDT: Arkansas vs. South Carolina (SEC Network)
- 3:30 PM EDT: Vanderbilt vs. Texas (SEC Network)
- 7:00 PM EDT: Mississippi State vs. LSU (SEC Network)
- 9:30 PM EDT: Georgia vs. Oklahoma (SEC Network)
South Carolina and LSU are getting The Invitation, and they’re getting it as exempt bids (that means home games). Nerd talk warning, but they max out at two-in-three likely in these simulations because they’re below .500 and the NIT has a weird historic relationship with teams below .500. To be clear, though: They’re getting Invited. And for whatever my opinion’s worth, I think they’re going to accept. Not even hearing rumors there, but that’s my opinion. The difference between these guys and teams like Arizona State last year is that these guys are expecting the call.
Texas is the big one. That’s quite the game. The Longhorns could nearly secure themselves a place in our favorite tournament with a loss. With a win, it’s still possible, but the path narrows, and with Vandy on the other side looking to stay alive…whoa boy. Everybody’s saying fans in Nashville won’t accept Mark Byington until he makes an NIT quarterfinal. I say, give the guy a chance.
Last, Georgia plays Oklahoma. There’s still a chance we’ll get our friends the Dawgs, but it’s not looking great, even if they lose this one. Pray for bid thieves.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| Texas | 27% | 79% |
| Vanderbilt | 0% | 9% |
| Arkansas | 0% | 6% |
| Georgia | 0% | 4% |
| LSU | 65% | 66% |
| South Carolina | 65% | 65% |
The Underdogs
- 5:00 PM EDT: Lamar at McNeese (ESPN2)
- 6:30 PM EDT: Liberty vs. UTEP (ESPN+)
- 9:00 PM EDT: Utah Valley vs. Utah Tech (ESPN+)
- 11:30 PM EDT: Northern Colorado vs. Montana (ESPN2)
- 11:30 PM EDT: Grand Canyon vs. UT Arlington (ESPN+)
Northern Colorado’s no longer favored to get an automatic bid, but they’ll get one if they lose. Ditto McNeese, who’s never been favored to get an automatic bid. It’s that manager, I swear. Too charismatic. Good luck to Will Wade in his post-Amir Khan era.
Liberty can clinch Conference USA’s exempt bid with a loss. That comes with a home game, which of course brings back memories of Darius McGhee in 2023. What a tournament that ended up being for everybody involved.
In the WAC, Utah Valley and Grand Canyon are on a collision course. Utah Valley can wrap up the automatic bid early, but for Grand Canyon, it’s at-large or bust, so the Antelopes probably want the Wolverines to win? We should really have second-level NIT leverages here. The people deserve to know how the Utah Valley/Utah Tech game impacts Grand Canyon’s NIT probability. What kind of NIT blog are we?
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| McNeese | 0% | 99% |
| Northern Colorado | 0% | 99% |
| Liberty | 48% | 99% |
| Utah Valley | 67% | 98% |
| Grand Canyon | 14% | 4% |
The State of Nevada
- 4:30 PM EDT: Nevada vs. Fresno State (Mountain West Network)
- 7:00 PM EDT: Air Force at UNLV (Mountain West Network)
There’s an assumption among some fans that at least UNLV will play in the Crown, which is funny because the Crown made it very clear that they want absolutely no mid-majors involved. That was the point of the Crown, and that’s what started all the automatic bid controversy over here in the NIT. Anyway, I’d caution everyone against thinking they know anything about the Crown. Hardly any information’s publicly available, it’s unclear if those running the tournament have any familiarity with college basketball, and people love to speak confidently about things they know nothing about. That’s the blogosphere, baby!
So: Don’t give up on the Runnin’ Rebels. They were a great time last year, and I for one would love to have them back.
Earlier in the afternoon, Steve Alford’s got a chance to boost his chance to get a chance to coach at Hinkle Fieldhouse. We’ve always loved the city of Reno.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| UNLV | 46% | 5% |
| Nevada | 40% | 2% |
The Big 12
- 12:30 PM EDT: Iowa State vs. Cincinnati (ESPN)
- 3:00 PM EDT: West Virginia vs. Colorado (ESPN+)
- 7:00 PM EDT: Baylor vs. Kansas State (ESPN+)
- 9:30 PM EDT: Kansas vs. UCF (ESPN2)
UCF and K-State should be free from any legal obligations to the Crown if they lose, especially if UCF loses badly. That said, we don’t fully know what the Fox Sports contracts say. Either way, we’d advise those two lose.
Colorado’s trying to climb into the NIT picture, and they’ve at least gotten themselves to the bubble, which is wild given how this season’s gone in Boulder. The Big 12 might not be what it was a few years ago, but it’s got us asking if a 13–19 team can get an NIT at-large bid, and that’s kind of amazing.
Cincinnati’s only hope is the Crown not happening. Baylor’s only hope is Scott Drew not only somehow missing the NCAA T*urnament but also telling the Crown to go ahead and sue his school. Having spent three minutes with the guy at Grant McCasland’s coronation in 2023, I’m more than willing to serve as a character witness in what I imagine would be the trial of the century. Keep it in mind, coach.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| UCF | 10% | 33% |
| Colorado | 53% | 32% |
| Kansas State | 28% | 39% |
| Cincinnati | 1% | 2% |
| Baylor | 0% | 1% |
The Big Ten
- 3:30 PM EDT: Minnesota vs. Northwestern (Peacock)
- 6:00 PM EDT: Ohio State vs. Iowa (Peacock)
- 8:30 PM EDT: Rutgers vs. USC (Peacock)
Here’s something I don’t understand: Why 15 teams for the Big Ten and ACC Tournaments? Why not 16? The Big Ten is on streaming services anyway, and it’s not like someone else is using the arena. I can understand the concept of not wanting an extra day of conference tournaments. Yes, it implies you hate basketball, but this is a sport built on hating basketball! That’s how the NIT got shoved off the top of the hill!
Setting that aside, there are NIT stakes everywhere with these three games. Ohio State’s in the same boat as Cincinnati re: Crown legal status if they miss the NCAA T*urnament, but Northwestern still has at least a little bit of hope, and all of Iowa, Minnesota, USC, and Rutgers have a lot of hope. Minnesota’s the only team who should want to win here. But then again…whoever gets the NIT home game (via the Big Ten’s one exempt bid) is going to be pumped. Such a tough needle to thread. Good thing the Big Ten prides itself on academics.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| Iowa | 45% | 71% |
| Northwestern | 6% | 19% |
| Minnesota | 55% | 48% |
| USC | 56% | 60% |
| Rutgers | 59% | 61% |
| Ohio State | 0% | 0% |
The Big East
- 4:00 PM EDT: Providence vs. Butler (Peacock)
- 6:30 PM EDT: Georgetown vs. DePaul (Peacock)
- 9:00 PM EDT: Villanova vs. Seton Hall (Peacock)
The great thing about playing Seton Hall, if you’re Villanova, is that a loss would be so damaging to your NET that you could evade the Crown, especially if Xavier loses badly tomorrow or gets bid thieved. Something to think about. For everyone else, the NIT dynamic mostly centers on how far down the list the NIT gets when it starts dialing. Georgetown’s pretty set to get the Big East’s exempt bid (unless Seton Hall beats Nova), and none of Providence, DePaul, and Seton Hall are in at-large territory. Only Butler really has much to play for, and for them, it’d be more about pulling off a huge upset tomorrow.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| Villanova | 0% | 19% |
| Georgetown | 53% | 60% |
| Butler | 24% | 22% |
| DePaul | 8% | 9% |
| Seton Hall | 3% | 4% |
| Providence | 15% | 15% |
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