We’re a little late on this (busy morning), but we updated our bracketology this morning. We’re starting to input “final” conference schedules and tournament formats, so there’s some noise as we begin to adjust into daily scheduling updates and daily bracketology. As of today, schedules in our model are in their official state (or something very close) for the A-10, the A-East, the A-Sun, the Big South, the Horizon League, and the OVC. Nothing too significant changed from making this pivot (note on St. Bonaventure below, whose seeding was the biggest thing affected), but we’ll keep you posted as we update other leagues, including a few more today and tomorrow (my best current guess is that our next bracketology update will come Tuesday).
Also, because we’re writing this late, one possibly significant result has been realized, with Michigan downing Ohio State in Columbus. Our model did narrowly expect Ohio State to win that one, but they were projected as the top-most 2-seed and Michigan was a 1-seed already, so for as great as that game was, it isn’t too meaningful here.
Here’s who did move:
Moving Up: Colorado, UCLA, Boise State, North Carolina
UNC needed a game like that. The Tar Heels crushed Louisville, pulling themselves up above the projected bubble. They don’t want to be a 10-seed, but compared to the First Four, that’s a good place to be.
Boise State finished off the sweep of Utah State Friday night, and they too are looking rather safe. If they get swept by San Diego State this week, which is a real possibility, that might change, but while our model has a split as narrowly more likely, it’s hard to imagine one extra Q1 loss pulling the Broncos down towards bubble territory. The MWC Tournament’s dangerous enough and Boise State’s close enough to the bubble that they aren’t yet a lock, but they’re reasonably close, which is huge for that league.
UCLA avoided disaster against Arizona State, which in the context of future probabilities gave them one more expected win overall. The Bruins are now 16-5, and their last three regular season games offer no risk of bad losses.
And among those last three for Mick Cronin’s crew is a trip to Boulder, where they’ll play a currently relieved Colorado team that escaped Corvallis without what would have been a staggeringly bad third straight defeat.
Moving Down: Houston, Tennessee, Virginia Tech, Louisville, St. Bonaventure, Drake, Colgate
It’s a big list. Tennessee lost at home to NIT-unlikely Kentucky. Houston’s Thursday loss to Wichita State was worse for their ratings than our proxies expected. Virginia Tech didn’t play, but slipped on the back of some circumstantial changes—shuffling ACC standings, previous wins and losses getting worse, etc. Louisville was fine losing in Chapel Hill, but not by 45. St. Bonaventure lost a few good opportunities as we clarified the A-10 slate. Drake and Colgate didn’t do anything wrong, but each got passed as others moved around.
Moving In: Wichita State, Penn State, SMU
Penn State’s back, as their Thursday loss to Ohio State wasn’t as damaging as our proxies estimated it to be. We’ll see what they do today. The Nittany Lions are the biggest oddity in our model right now—it’s likely overestimating them due to us not finding a good way to have it incorporate the optics of teams with terribly hard schedules having unsightly win-loss records. Lot of curiosity over how the committees will treat them.
Just as Houston’s loss to Wichita State was worse than our model guessed, Wichita State’s win over Houston was better. The Shockers are projected for the right side of the bubble, and they’ve pulled SMU up with them, as the pair’s home-and-home this week no longer presents as much downside for the Mustangs.
Moving Out: Indiana, Xavier, Saint Louis (auto-bid)
Saint Louis’s rollercoaster continued, with the Billikens no longer the A-10 tournament favorite following a smacking at the hands of Dayton. Indiana’s star faded a bit with a home loss to Michigan State. Xavier was passed.
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As was said above, I’d guess our next bracketology update comes Tuesday after a lot more scheduling updates within the model and a few big games (Syracuse/Duke, Texas Tech/Oklahoma State, Oregon/USC) tomorrow night. Since we are updating things, let us know if you notice anything that looks particularly odd, especially with automatic bids.
Go Penn State?
