In the kenpom era, which begins with the 1998–99 season, only five teams have finished with a better adjusted efficiency margin than UConn’s current number of +35.10. What does that number mean? Per 100 possessions, UConn is expected to perform 35.10 points better right now than an average Division I team. By our best neutral arbiter of team ability, UConn is better—relative to its season—than all but five teams have been at the ends of the last 25 years of college basketball.
It was a massacre last night in Boston, and with John Adams long gone, nobody came to argue in Illinois’s defense. The Illini hung with UConn in the first half. After a terrible start, they managed to tie the game. But then the 30–0 run happened, and suddenly—as it went with the tuxedos after the infamous Step Brothers fart—Illinois’s insistence on taking the ball at Donovan Clingan started to feel less endearing. It was a bizarre gameplan, but it shouldn’t take away from UConn’s greatness in that game. Because what was Brad Underwood going to do? We said yesterday that Illinois’s best bet was to try to get Marcus Domask isolated against Cam Spencer. Had Illinois successfully made that happen, Dan Hurley could have afforded to simply sub Spencer out.
With about two minutes left, playing against UConn’s bench, Illinois put together a beautiful possession. Crisp passing, fast ball movement, a made three at the end of it. It was a reminder of what, for so long this season, this Illinois team was. It was only one possession. Across the other 68, UConn beat Illinois into a pulp.
The late game was more contested, and for those cheering against UConn inevitability, it was a better result. Alabama’s been a top-ten team at times this year. They’ve been a top-ten team at times this month, though this month is running out. Like Illinois, they’re remarkably effective at scoring the basketball, but unlike Illinois, they shoot a ton of threes. In that regard, they’re the kind of team we’d view as a potential Cinderella darling were they an 11-point underdog in the first round. As an 11-point underdog in the Final Four, how different is it? The counterpoint is pace—Alabama plays fast, upsets happen more often when teams play slow—but UConn’s own slow pace sure makes it interesting. If you ignore injuries, UConn vs. Alabama has the same recipe as Kansas vs. Samford.
Nick Pringle was excellent for the Crimson Tide, but what was maybe the most encouraging aspect of the evening for the team was how unbothered they were by their slow start. Twelve minutes in, Alabama was 1-for-12 on threes and trailed 26–13. It was getting late in the first half, and Clemson was doubling them up. The last two days we mentioned Arizona and Marquette failing to adjust, and Alabama didn’t really adjust either. But they didn’t keep missing. They started making shots. After one more miss, they hit three straight, and by halftime they had a lead. The upside of all that shooting is that you can come back fast, and come back fast Alabama did. Over the final 28 minutes of the game, they scored 76 points. That’s a 109-point pace against a respectable defense.
So yes, Alabama can outgun UConn. They’ll deserve their underdog status, and good luck outscheming the Huskies’ assistants, but the upset can happen. Alabama is a much better bet to upset this UConn team than Clemson would have been. And you know who those five teams were who finished their seasons in a better spot than UConn sits right now?
- 1999 Duke
- 2001 Duke
- 2008 Kansas
- 2015 Kentucky
- 2021 Gonzaga
Only two of those won the championship.
As for today…
We’ve seen both these matchups before. In November in Maui, Purdue pulled away late from the Volunteers in a game which featured 78 free throws. Earlier this month in Raleigh, Duke grabbed more of its own misses than NC State did, swallowing 19 offensive rebounds en route to a 79–64 dispatching of the Wolfpack. Ten days later? NC State still struggled on the glass, but they improved, holding off the Blue Devils in a nailbiter in Washington D.C.
I’ve seen a bit of talk saying Dalton Knecht wasn’t in his current role yet when Tennessee played Purdue, but I don’t think that’s all that true. His role has increased since that game, but he was shooting a whole lot before he hurt his ankle against North Carolina. I think a bigger question is how much the refereeing and the defensive approaches mirror that game. What is a foul? What isn’t? What becomes one based on how rough the game becomes? Tennessee doesn’t have as much of the beat-and-bruise reputation as they did last year, but I don’t know that they’re actually less rough. Purdue, meanwhile, probably doesn’t get enough credit for how solid it is on the defensive end. What they do isn’t eye-catching, but it works.
Rebounds may or may not be the story again in the NC State/Duke rubbermatch, but it’s always interesting when two teams know each other this well. NC State is up now to the eight-longest win streak in the country (credit to kenpom, always so useful), but is this team actively good? They and Duke both are playing their best basketball of the season. Whether that continues is uncertain, but uncertainty works both ways. They could fade. They could also make more steps forward.
Six thousand Division I basketball games lead to these last nine days. This afternoon, Purdue or Tennessee gets over a big personal hump. This afternoon, Duke or NC State becomes the last ACC team standing. And on Saturday, don’t count out Alabama against the Huskies. Sure, they’re an underdog. But so was Baylor in 2021, and so was Wisconsin in 2015, and so was UConn back in 1999. Of all the schools, UConn should know what can happen out there when the first whistle blows.
