With fourteen days to go in the Major League Baseball regular season, we’ve arrived in a place of some clarity. The Dodgers, Braves, and Orioles have clinched playoff spots. The Rays, Twins, Brewers, and Phillies are close. That leaves five playoff places available. At the other end of the spectrum, five teams have been mathematically eliminated, while another nine are close. Barring some stunning resurrection from the Yankees or Padres or another, that leaves nine teams playing for those five spots. Four AL teams, three AL spots. Five NL teams, two NL spots. Two weeks to sort it all out.
Here’s how the weekend went, and what’s coming up these next four days.
The Stars
When a team scores 36 runs in three games, that team is going to have a few players putting up numbers, and all three of Jazz Chisholm Jr., Luis Arraez, and Jake Burger check in at the top of this weekend’s list, combining to go 19-for-38 and hit seven home runs in a sweep of the post-clinch Braves. Arraez contributed three of those home runs himself, increasing his season total from seven to ten while pushing his batting average to .353, which will be the highest over a 162-game season since Josh Hamilton’s .359 in 2010 if Arraez can keep it up. Burger had five extra-base hits on the series.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. didn’t match those three for overall production, but he went 6-for-13 in the Diamondbacks’ sweep of the Cubs and came through with the big hit in the eleventh inning of Saturday’s marathon, singling to tie it up and extend the game. He had at least one big play in the field as well, and possibly two or more, if memory serves.
Lucas Giolito had the big start of the weekend, striking out twelve over seven innings as he appears to finally settle in at the third stop in his trade–and–waiver odyssey. In the playoff mix, Grayson Rodriguez showed up the biggest, striking out seven over eight scoreless innings Saturday without yielding a walk. The win, for the Orioles, pushed them back into sole possession of the AL East lead and secured the tiebreaker in that race.
The Blue Jays got their feet back under them after a terrible set of losses to the Rangers, and their bullpen showed up big. Jordan Romano and Chad Green combined to record sixteen outs over the weekend, mostly in high-leverage situations, all without allowing a run.
The Series
From the American League perspective:
- The Orioles and Rays split their four games in Baltimore, pushing the Orioles back to three ahead in the loss column.
- The Twins took three of four from the White Sox, moving closer to clinching that division.
- The Astros dropped two of three in Kansas City, going 2–4 against the A’s and Royals on the week.
- The Blue Jays swept the Red Sox in Toronto, reversing their fortunes.
- The Rangers were swept by the Guardians in Cleveland, reversing their fortunes.
- The Mariners were swept by the Dodgers at home, as the American League did the thing where you miss a meeting at work but then find out everybody else forgot about it too.
In the NL:
- The Marlins swept the Braves, picking a good time to run into the best team in baseball but still very much making the most of it.
- The Dodgers swept the Mariners, making up three games on Atlanta but remaining four and a half games back in the home-field picture.
- The Brewers took two of three in Washington, all but officially putting the Central away.
- The Phillies won two of three in St. Louis, taking care of business as the field crashed behind them.
- The Diamondbacks swept the Cubs, leapfrogging Chicago for fifth place in the NL and pushing the Cubs into a tie with the Marlins for sixth.
- The Reds won two of three over the Mets, hanging close to the race.
- The Giants imploded in Denver, losing three of four and nearly coughing up yesterday’s 11–6 lead in the bottom of the ninth.
The Situation
In the competitive divisions, the Orioles still lead the Rays by two in the AL East.
The AL West looks like this, with the Astros holding the tiebreaker over the Rangers, the Mariners holding the tiebreaker over the Astros, and the Mariners–Rangers tiebreaker yet to be decided but favoring Texas:
1. Houston: 84–66
2. Texas: 82–67
3. Seattle: 81–68
…
Houston gained a game on each of Texas and Seattle, but in the Wild Card, Toronto gained three on that pair and two on the Astros, climbing to the following spot below Tampa Bay:
…
5. Toronto: 83–67
6. Texas: 82–67
7. Seattle: 81–68
…
In that race, the Blue Jays hold the tiebreaker over the Astros, but they don’t hold it over the Mariners or Rangers.
This week, the Astros host Baltimore for three, the Blue Jays visit the Yankees for three, the Rangers host the Red Sox for three, and the Mariners visit the A’s for three.
In the National League, there’s no division element left, and the Phillies are probably safe. The Wild Card picture below Philadelphia lines up like this after Arizona and Miami rose, Chicago and San Francisco fell, and Cincinnati did a little rising of its own:
…
5. Arizona: 79–72
6. Miami: 78–72
7. Chicago: 78–72
8. Cincinnati: 78–73
9. San Francisco: 76–74
…
Tiebreakers? At the moment:
- The Diamondbacks hold the tiebreaker over the Cubs, and their tiebreaker with the Giants will be settled this week but, in scenarios where it’s relevant, likely belongs to San Francisco.
- The Marlins hold the tiebreakers over the Cubs and Diamondbacks, but they split against both the Reds and the Giants, and while they hold the second tiebreaker (intradivision record) over Cincinnati, they most likely won’t hold it over the Giants, especially if it matters.
- The Cubs hold the tiebreaker over the Giants and nobody else.
- The Reds hold that tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks, and they hold the tiebreaker over the Cubs.
- The Giants hold the tiebreaker over the Reds, and as mentioned probably hold the tiebreaker over the Marlins.
- If this goes to a three or four or five-way tie, it’s combined head-to-head record before any other tiebreaker. In most scenarios, that’s good for the Marlins. For everyone else, it really depends on the matchups in question. There are scenarios where a team might even want a tie to grow larger so its combined head-to-head record within the tiebreak improves. For now, though, everyone’s just trying to break clear of everybody else.
This week, the Diamondbacks host the Giants for two, the Marlins host the Mets for three, the Cubs host the Pirates for three, and the Reds host the Twins for three.
The Week’s Best Games
Tonight’s best matchup might be in Texas, where Jordan Montgomery is starting against Kutter Crawford. Tomorrow, it’s probably Arizona, with Alex Cobb the likeliest Giants starter and Zac Gallen listed for the D-Backs. Wednesday, it’s again in Arizona, with Logan Webb the most likely Giants arm and Merrill Kelly going for the home team. Thursday, it goes to the Bronx, where José Berríos is listed for the Blue Jays and Gerrit Cole is the guy for the Yankees.
Who’s Hot
The Yankees and Marlins are now tied for the best record in September, each at 11–5. Since August began, it’s the Dodgers, at 32–12.
Among individuals, Matt Olson and Xander Bogaerts are both smoking the ball, with Olson holding an .836 slugging percentage on the month and Bogaerts hitting a mean .436. Since August began, Mookie Betts has been baseball’s best player, with a .480 OBP in a quarter of a season’s worth of games.
On the mound, Tarik Skubal is having the best month, with a 1.42 ERA over 19 innings so far. Cole Ragans has still been the best since August 1st despite allowing a poorly-timed home run on Saturday.
Things to Watch
Last weekend, it was the Rangers falling apart. The Rangers then swept the Blue Jays, and suddenly it was the Blue Jays falling apart. The Blue Jays then swept the Red Sox, and now it’s the Cubs and Giants falling apart. It’s definitely not good to have been swept, but for as strong as memories of surges and collapses are in September, prior results do not guarantee future performance right now. Just because a team’s struggling doesn’t mean it’s going to crash and burn. Just because a team’s playing well doesn’t mean it’s safe. We are, though, getting into the point in the season where every game becomes its own little saga for teams trying to make the postseason. The pressure is high, and a lot of players are banged up, and everyone is tired. It’s a gauntlet, and these guys are taking their final hits. We’ll see who’s left standing.
